Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 26/4/2024 23:27

Hiz to SSR stick on . Allows us to keep salinbas but WTF do I know

[bigglesbingham] 26/4/2024 23:25

All valid points however from meeting and chatting to the dowke guys it was clear they respect KS and saw him as the route to bringing their mine to fruition. Dual listing doesn't concern me as much as others as MDV and KS hold the vast majority of their assets in aim listed AAU shares. Dilution will happen but only at a premium as KS stated to TW. Yes it's increased the risk no doubt but that risk to me is purely the jurisdiction . KS is comfortable as we're the Rickover management when I asked them. The cost £70 -100 m I suggested they would sell part of Salinbas/HIZ I still think the same. Could they have given a date for QAnd A in rns yes but we know their PR marketing promotion is not good. Personally I'd have waited until tarsvan was up and running and share price higher to do deal but ha ho there was no guarantee of that . I want an interactive discussion with the board to fully understand the project. But feel better now than yesterday.

[excellance] 26/4/2024 22:03

Yes, the new project and particularly the costs relative to the AAU market cap have really cracked the "steady as she goes" boring old Ariana business model, and as stated in the release they do intend to raise capital from the asx listing and will allow existing holders to participate.

My guess is they'll prove the new project up at modest cost then farm it out to a major for a free carry, or maybe even fund it themselves!

Meanwhile, the Turkish assets they retain will be bringing in revenues.

[dixi] 26/4/2024 21:49

It's now back in the speculative 'time will tell' camp. Impossible to make any educated assessment of what comes next, as the goalposts keep on dodging. But KS seems as delighted as I had expected. Is this an investment or just a gamble on whether KS can fulfill his ambitions?

[konil] 26/4/2024 20:39

jeeeeezzzzz, turn my head for 2 days and i come back to 350 posts.

everything has been covered by everyone so i only have 3 points:


1. biggles was on the money when he thought ks would hang onto dokwe and i was waaaayyyy off when i thought ks would look for a quick monetisation opportunity and exit.
i regret that and wish it had been the other way round for reasons below.

2. strange how they have already 'priced' the purchase of dokwe without knowing the total cost to get to first gold pour??????
it may be that the out-of-date pfs is ok because the variables appear to be on the upside, but until a *bfs* is done its still a lot of fita.

3. the main point - risk!!!
aau had become a relatively safe small miner, with good income, no debt and a portfolio of manageable value accretive exploration projects to work on, but now it has taken on a project the size of which compared to the size of aau makes it a very risky entity

- financially because even with income from kizil and tavsan probably lots more dilution to come beyond the 688m shares so far. the get out could be if aau have sufficient resources (cash, gold holdings, income) to navigate this at limited further dilution. and assuming non-equity funding will be available when needed.

- politically because despite all the positive noises (well what else would ks say), zimbabwe is still frontier territory

- corporately, with unknown jv's/deals to be done, and at an uncomfortable size for aau, to enable progress at dokwe. (could newmont wade in and gain an outsize holding relative to their buy-in cost due to their muscle?)
plus a rather unwelcome dual listing for aau from a uk shareholder viewpoint.

3 years, probably more like 6, is a long time for a company the size of aau to carry this size of risk. and if they want to offset that risk will existing holders get heavily diluted in the process?
this is not the company profile i invested in with overweight allocation of my funds.
they might have done better to scale down dokwe ambition and focus on venus/apliki, but therein lies another tale and i feel we have been blindsided on that.




of course all these thoughts are on scant detail but has ks's ambition together with an overly chummy association with dokwe proponents led ks down the wrong path? great geologist? yes! great corporate strategist?

[charles clore] 26/4/2024 19:28

I'm happier now than I was yesterday especially considering the state of the yen which bodes well for the future of gold. If anyone thinks AAU is paying too much for Dockwe then come back in a year and 35% of Turkish production will look like a bargain. Clever bloke that Kerim.

[excellance] 26/4/2024 18:10

They've already stated that the Venus IPO is suspended indefinitely, but then I suspected that due to the long pause and no news...and the fairly poor quality of assets over there in Cyprus.

It's a real shame considering all of the work and cash thrown at it over the last three years, but I'm sure it'll be divested by another method, ie flogged off for a quick cash injection, or farmed out for a free carry.

[soulsauce] 26/4/2024 17:59

Must have missed it Shortarm or disregarded it.

Well there is one thing for certain excellance they surely can't keep everything they have and I agree big decisions need to be made on what is important and what is not and imo Cyprus has to be the first casualty.

[bigglesbingham] 26/4/2024 17:59

It in rns. But there is small print saying that's not just their share it's total attributable to JVs they are linked to.

[bigglesbingham] 26/4/2024 17:57

Well I'm o. 5.5% so still above 3%. Just heard TW bearcast saying he's bought more, would have bought even more if he'd had the cash after a LONG zoom call with Kerim Sener. Very bullish , in fact never heard him so bullish about anything. Double money within year etc etc .

[excellance] 26/4/2024 17:55

Yes, a very positive interview, probably overly positive, but then he has to sell the deal to the markets.
Very positive on several of the core Turkish assets, but I suspect he's trying to sell some of those.
No mention of Kosovo or Venus.

I have absolutely no doubt that they'll be reviewing everything thru this new lense with a view to how best to allocate capital, and where to pull the plug.

Patience needed while they go thru the process and of course complete DD.

[shortarm] 26/4/2024 17:53

It's in the last presentation isn't it?

[soulsauce] 26/4/2024 17:48

Something else from the rns yesterday too. The stated aim of getting to 5m oz by 2025 - eh, maybe I have missed something but where has that kind of info been which would have massively helped promote the company.

[soulsauce] 26/4/2024 17:44

Cheers.

Wow an enormous announcement and barely 8mins dedicated to Dokwe. No difficult questions. Also have to take issue with some of the glowing words about Zimbabwe. It hasn't been stable long enough to suggest all problems have gone.
I notice the mine completion at Tavsan is now slated as 'this year". Surely we aren't rolling back on Q3 now 🤦

[soulsauce] 26/4/2024 17:28

Where is the interview?

[charles clore] 26/4/2024 17:26

I liked the BRR Media interview. Put a bit of meat on the bones and it looks like the resource has the potential to become the biggest in South Africa. Hope I'm still alive by the time that happens but if not I'm sure my kids will be quite happy.

[kirbs4] 26/4/2024 16:49

I think everything has been said Charles :)

[shortarm] 26/4/2024 16:44

Wine, I meant wine ;-P

[shortarm] 26/4/2024 16:44

Hehe, everyone loves a good whine!

[charles clore] 26/4/2024 16:42

Strange, since the price started to recover this thread has gone remarkably silent!

[dixi] 26/4/2024 14:32

Don't hold your breath ;-)

[thanksamillion] 26/4/2024 14:31

Isn't sentiment a strange fellow?

Slit my thoat yesterday and this morning,
everything is rosy this afternoon.