Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[renniks2016] 25/4/2024 21:38

No doubt the team doing the due diligence have found something very worthwhile, certainly more than confirmation of what's there. Which on its own is worth a whole lot more than what we are giving for it. Yes only time and further info will prove this, I like the ambition, and given how conservative we know Kerim is, this has got the potential to be exceptional I think. They made it very clear at latest presentation that they've done there homework on Zimbabwe, and I also believe that the sigma of the place will take a lot to lose, but there has been some significant chances there in the last five years. Who's going to give a jot about tiny dividends, when they can sell a few shares at 30p a pop? Good day all round with Newmont up 12.5% too. Gla whether in or out.

[highley1] 25/4/2024 21:38

soulsauce,

Correct, to try and pretend this is not dilution is ridiculous, it is dilution, period.

What I don't understand is why so many share holders here continue to hold this share when there are so many alternative gold stocks out there, some in London, but many others in Australia and Canada, and all easy to trade?

Centamin looks really good (IMO), Solomon another, but many other on the ASX and TSX.

[soulsauce] 25/4/2024 21:33

Highley1 23766 nailed it with that post 👏👏

[soulsauce] 25/4/2024 21:28

You are getting more assets loganair but they are not going to be producing and hence throwing off cash for at least 5yrs.
In the meantime you have given away 37.5% of the producing assets which have already been diluted through Ozaltin deal so the earnings per share (eps) is greatly reduced.
Add to that further dilution down the road to get to production so in my mind it is very much dilution.

You can also add in that shareholders are going to more than likely receive nothing in the way of a dividend until Dokwe is up and running unless Ariana manage to sell something.

[nov31] 25/4/2024 20:50

Fair point loganair, upon reflection I agree with you but still not happy ….sincerely hope I’m wrong and that the deal works well, if it gets voted through.

[loganair] 25/4/2024 20:42

I do not look upon this a a 'Dilution' as for the more shares getting more assets.

To me a dilution is if a company needs to raise funds, they issue more shares while having the exact same assets = more shares for the same assets.

[excellance] 25/4/2024 20:25

They had to use equity because they don't have the cash, and Rockover don't want just cash, they want the project management and reduced risk from multiple assets.
The bigger company may be better overall, but the dilution is a bitter pill, if not unexpected by me as I've said it enough times and got shot for it!
This deal solves many issues for both companies, but creates new challenges to overcome.

I don't like Zimbabwe and I don't like dilution, but I didn't like the structure of AAU before this, so on balance I think I'm quite happy with today's news so long as it leads to a strategic review and divestment of the junk in the portfolio.

[kaos3] 25/4/2024 20:11

which it will. the reason why i bought the dip today. because the real eagle will appear one day and start monetizing all those assets.

discrepancy between potential and monetary returns will be just to great.

he will go after today, not tommorrow.

and aau board is aware. hence some of the politics eg strange moves imho

[lottsgold] 25/4/2024 19:56

Caledonian Mining in Zim are producing 80k oz from underground and are valued at nearly 200m US today. Am I missing something...probably as I've had a drink whilst researching but this mine would surely take us to a totally different level...Then enter left Salinbas development plan and Tav production....That's before anything in Kosovo with Newmont or Project Leopard which will no doubt find some good size deposits Strange reaction today didn't expect to fly as it's hard to see this far in the future but blimey...Hope I can build a larger position over the years. Certainly not a get rich quick scheme...unless gold jumps another 50% in the next 12 months...

[lottsgold] 25/4/2024 19:40

Recent drills have been very good grades at good intervals, I feel the team have a view there is much more to come from the resource. Another bump in the road for the older generation here but as with everything AAU do the long term looks bright. Zimbabwe is certainly not a first choice jurisdiction but we're not going to get multimillion ounce deposits that are cheap(ish) to mine in a tier one with the ammo we have. It's a building block nothing more. Doing this deal in equity isn't our preference and probably not managements but clearly all in the know feel it's worth having a share of a growing business than the cash now. ASX seems like a sensible move going by the way miners moved on there compared to AIM last run.

[loganair] 25/4/2024 19:21

Rockwell's Dokwe has a total Mineral Resource of 1.2M oz gold averaging 1.05 g/t Au - very low grade.

[charles clore] 25/4/2024 19:20

Thanks - agreed we need more information and a vote. Let us not forget who AAU belongs to. Having said that I believe quite strongly that gold, silver and all other precious metals will surge in value in the coming months regardless what the company does. AAU could be run by the abominable snowman and still do well. All Kerim has to do is stake ownership on a decent deposit and this is what he is doing. Have a look at the latest trend in miners and their share prices. It seems that those with poor economics are rising to the top of the stack. So all we have to do is wait to be "discovered".

[excellance] 25/4/2024 19:17

Rockover have done this deal with Ariana because it offers them much better share price appreciation. If they'd done a deal with a big fish their percentage return would be in multiples less.
The project does look like an excellent proposition.
No mention of what cash Rockover have in the bank and have brought with them, if any.
For Ariana it promises a mid tier producer 100% owned (minus 37.5% given away today) and a dual listing making AAU a global entity, but they still need to offer an enticing investment opportunity.
The next step has to be a strategic review and sale of non core assets.

[nov31] 25/4/2024 19:16

Shouldn’t be using equity for this deal, as simple as that! Could probably have arranged to purchase the equity over 12 - 18 months out of existing reserves and new cash flow from Tavsan…etc

The problem with Kerim is that he thinks it’s his Company, and he sees issuing new equity as free money.

There’s not a lot of sympathy for MDV on this board, but with a holding of 6% plus (notably a lot more than Kerim) I suspect he feels he’s been shafted as well.

[highley1] 25/4/2024 19:04

This deal looks awful, IMO, I can't understand why they're giving so much away?

This is the most unfocused company I know, bits here, bits there, management seem all over the place.

I don't think having the CEO in Australia is a great move either.

[thanksamillion] 25/4/2024 18:58

Need to bear in mind that we not only passing them 37.5% of todays Ariana but also 37.5% of our future cash/earnings. The new prospect will not be generating any cash for several years so cash needed will ALL come from profits made from our existing assets unless they arrange loans which I doubt. This to me makes it look like a very good deal for Rockcliff, not so for AAU

I think we simply need a lot more detail from our Board and a thorough discussion of the issues.

[jaf1948] 25/4/2024 18:25

Charles, no offence taken.

[soulsauce] 25/4/2024 18:20

No worries Charles I totally get the angst on a day like today.
The idiots continue to be the BoD who keep serving up Rns's where people feel they need to seek urgent clarification and cause people to dump shares instead of loading up.

[charles clore] 25/4/2024 18:13

Soul / Jaf - my idiots remark was admittedly a bit strong. My apologies.

[jaf1948] 25/4/2024 18:07

Charles,

We all have different criteria for investing. I for example cannot afford to invest in a company that will, in all probability, give me neither capital appreciation or dividends during the time I am invested there.

From what we know, especially after today, is that Ariana is unlikely to provide investors with either of those things for the next year or so. That does not make me or anyone else an idiot for selling, simply different needs.

(Sorry, soul, we overlapped).

[soulsauce] 25/4/2024 18:04

You can't say they are idiots Charles. Maybe they are older than you and have given enough time and money over to this to put up with another can kick down the road with even less visibility with today's news of dividends.
Only time will tell if they are idiots.
Why does it always feel like one step forward then two steps back with Ariana.
I think the thing that sticks in the craw with most investors is the amount of equity we are giving up in pursuit of an asset in a regime probably no safer than Turkey and with an obviously moving target of 3yrs to production. (I am still sore from 18mths to Apliki) 🙄

[shortarm] 25/4/2024 17:39

Erm, nutter!