Wh Smith Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 17/10/2012 09:39

Morning saltaire, I`m sure I posted on here within the last few weeks that SMWH was the most shorted FTSE 350 stock.

Been lucky here .. I`m out first thing this morning with a good profit but will keep it on the watchlist.

Luck with your trade.

[saltaire111] 16/10/2012 21:29

philanderer - thanks. I don't really short many stocks as I always feel a bit grubby doing so. But I think WH Smiths is just such a glaringly obvious short opportunity. I think the share price will halve over the next few months. An you may call me Susan if it isn't so.

[philanderer] 16/10/2012 11:20

Morning saltaire , good luck with your short around the 630p mark

I think this may well drift lower now... IMS not due for around a month and can`t see much news until then.

Buyback programme may prevent a huge drop... and still yielding 4.25% at the current share price

[philanderer] 15/10/2012 19:35

Buyback resuming today..

50,000 for cancellation at an average price of 631.3433 p

[philanderer] 15/10/2012 11:20

15th october Espirito Santo retains 'buy' .. increases target from 620p to 700p

15th october JP Morgan Cazenove downgrades WH Smith from overweight to underweight

[philanderer] 14/10/2012 00:36

'Kate Swann saved WH Smith by focusing on service and costs. What will her successor do?'

[philanderer] 12/10/2012 11:16

Nomura retains 'buy' , target increased from 690p to 715p

Oriel retains 'reduce' , target increased from 450p to 500p

[philanderer] 12/10/2012 08:55

Upgrade from UBS - retains 'buy' increasing target from 620p to 700p

Two reiterations:

12th october Citigroup buy tp 720p
12th october HB Markets buy -

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 20:52

WH Smith to trial BookPlus Heathrow store

11.10.12

WH Smith plans to open a trial store dedicated mainly to books, WHS BooksPlus, as the company experiments with new brand and format developments

(The Bookseller)

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 13:55

Well so far so good, I`ve covered my position from last night and got a few extra shares.

Luck to all.

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 13:22

John , here`s the FT Alphaville guys trying to explain it...

.. Merrill Lynch incidentally retaining their 'buy' and increasing their target from 675p to 725p


But stay on retail....

PM WH Smith?

PM Kate Swann gone, after nine years

BE Hm. And she's done very well

DK WH Smug looked dead in the water when she arrived

PM Yes, was just looking at the longer range chart

BE Yup. On paper, it is a moribund business

PM Stock around circa 250 when she took over

PM Now just off recent highs at 631

PM In the shops its a moribund business

PM Sorry pirce wrong

PM No, 629

BE The strategy - and it's been one that works - is to stop selling stuff.

BE They stopped selling CDs.

BE Then DVDs.

BE Then toys.

DK books next?

BE Many have suggested that ....

BE Vaguely remember seeing a stat that the average WH Smith shopper buys one book a year.

BE Meaning they're not ideal Kindle customers, I guess. Which is a benefit.

DK they mostly buy bottled water and choc bars

DK as far as I can see

BE Two for one on water and huge bars of Galaxy, yes.

BE Along with £2 bottles of Evian at the airport, which is its biggest market.

DK water is lo-cal, so they can "earn" the choc bars, see?

PM Ah yes, outrageous taht

BE Captive market. Same as Restaurant Group.

BE Invest in exploiting barriers to entry and you don't have to do much else.

DK anyway, it's worked for Ms Swann

BE Note more cost savings in today's statement.

DK although I'd be nervous about the chances of someone repeating it in the next nine years

PM (Baz - all i can suggest at this point is logging out and loggingback in again) sorry

BE Yeah, they're already cutting deep. Don't sales staff also vacuum the floors?

BE And aren't staff incentivised (by which I mean paid) on how many Galaxy bars they shift?

BE (Please note both of those were phrased as questions.)

BE Anyway, here's long-term fan Merrill

BE
WH Smith has reported FY12 PBT of £102mn, slightly ahead of our £101mn
estimate, due to lower central costs and DPS of 26.9p (+20% yoy) well ahead of
our 25.8p estimate. WH Smith has also announced that its CEO Kate Swann is
standing down in June 2013 to be replaced by Steve Clarke. He also has a very
strong track record and we would expect him to continue with the current clear
and effective strategy. Valuation is undemanding and we maintain our Buy rating
with a new PO of 725p (up from 675p) based on the average of an SOP and DCF.

BE
Travel EBIT was up +11% yoy to £63mn in line with our forecast. Gross margin
was +160bp yoy, driven mainly by mix. In the UK 35 units were opened and we
expect a similar number to open in FY13. Internationally WH Smith now has 101
units opened or agreed, including 21 announced today and it has also recently
acquired a business consisting of 5 hospital cafes in Australia.

BE
The High Street business achieved EBIT of £54mn (+4% yoy) again in line with
our forecast, with gross margin up +120bps owing to mix, better buying terms and
improving sourcing and markdown management. WH Smith has identified a
further £12mn cost savings, making a total of £25mn over the next three years,
including savings from energy efficiency, self-scan checkouts, IT and logistics.

BE
Steve Clarke has worked with Kate Swann to develop and execute the company's
clear strategy, of growing its Travel business (5 yr CAGR in EBIT of c.12%),
strengthening the High Street offer and returning cash to shareholders (£377mn
over that time with a further £73mn to come in FY13). He has a strong team
around him, with Group FD Robert Moorhead taking on an additional COO role,
and we don't expect major changes in strategy over the next few years. WH Smith
offers double-digit EPS growth and trades on a cal. 13E P/E of just 9x.

Reiterate

Buy, and we would see any near-term weakness as a good buying opportunity.

[johnwise] 11/10/2012 11:41

Kate Swann to leave WH Smith after nine years at the helm

"Other than the occasional magazine I buy nothing in there. I would not pay the extortionate prices they ask for most of their goods
Swan has done the classic hatchet job on Smiths. Prune the number of branches back offload parts of the business , cut staff numbers and put up prices. It works in the short term but she has done nothing to make Smiths viable in the medium to long term. Its core market of Newspapers and magazines and books is in rapid decline. She is going before Smiths notice that the business is in trouble."
Almost everything WH Smith sells can be bought on the Internet at a discount
Last years Which report W. H. Smith was awarded first place for the worst retail store service."

See comments at bottom of page

.

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 11:12

Agreed guys , needed a pull back and consolidation.

So far today...

11th october Numis hold tp 650p
11th october Peel Hunt hold tp 600p
11th october Investec buy tp 690p
11th october Panmure hold tp 584p
11th october Seymour Pierce buy tp 720p
11th october Oriel reduce tp 450p

[deanroberthunt] 11/10/2012 09:19

maybe a case of the share price overunning the news...

[spob] 11/10/2012 09:17

can't say the share price has not moved up with events recently

470p in june up to 665p, + 41.5%

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 09:05

Swiftly followed by Seymour Pierce who reiterate their 'buy' and increase their target price from 680p to 720p

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 09:01

Oriel unchanged ;-)

11th october Oriel reduce tp 450p

[deanroberthunt] 11/10/2012 08:56

without the board change this would probably have been up.

[retsius] 11/10/2012 08:52

Agree deanroberthunt. She has been a very steady hand at the tiller. I couldn`t understand why the sharp drop until I read` Board Change`.
Disappointing after all the build up before the results.

[deanroberthunt] 11/10/2012 08:44

Well results beat expectations.....Kate leaving has spooked the market though, plus maybe a case of buy the rumour sell th fact.

[spob] 11/10/2012 08:40

who has tempted Kate

that's what i'd like to know

or has she had enough of the corporate jungle

[philanderer] 11/10/2012 08:39

Bought them back at 606p.

We`ll see how it goes :-)