Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[zoolook] 18/12/2015 09:54

Given they don't know what juicy proposition might next come in the door in their position I'd want to keep my powder dry too

[spob] 18/12/2015 09:47

1945

Not much of a speculation with that much cash sitting around

[rivaldo] 18/12/2015 09:46

Thx chaps - let's hope I'm just as spot on about Shire and (eventually) Impetus.

I'm not sure the Landers would like to commit to a regular dividend. To be meaningful, it would have to be say 20p+, i.e approaching £1m every year and growing, which long-term is quite a chunk.

I'm wondering, with £17m+ in the bank, whether the upcoming finals might see a special dividend paid?

A 50p dividend would cost around £2m, so would still leave say £15m in the bank, and I can see Shire Foods being sold in the next year or so, in which case VLE would hopefully get in a further £8m or so.

[rhomboid] 18/12/2015 09:22

Hi EM

I agree that they do a fine job of creating value, my only issue is that market doesn't ascribe a correct value to their achievements , in part I suspect that that is due to the lack of a dividend. As an example my stake here would be many multiples of its current size if they did as my income 'pot' rather than 'speculative' pot would come into play.

[clacre] 18/12/2015 09:19

Yes a pretty good deal - especially for the Landers! I don't think there's much argument about your point Rhomboid. Big salaries, big bonuses on disposal profits (no clawback for losses) and big shareholdings. At least we get one out of three. I would imagine that the share price will always be at a substantial discount to real asset value on the grounds that the Landers are unlikely to sell or liquidate Volvere - why would they when it's providing them with a very good living on top of the gains that we make.

I don't think Shire Foods will be worth as much as JMP but probably not far off. Sira seems to be their pet and will probably never be sold. Impetus is a worry with the VW/AUDI situation, which I understand is a biggish part of their business. I expect this is losing money at the moment and could be a thorn in Volvere's side for the foreseeable future. Perhaps they should knock this one on the head - you can't win them all.

[eezymunny] 18/12/2015 09:07

The thing is Rhomboid, they keep turning £1 into £5. Why would want them to pay a divi?

[stegrego] 18/12/2015 09:06

Very good news and spot on Riv.
I think a small divvy would light up the share price.

[rhomboid] 18/12/2015 09:02

Great deal, the only thing I'd like to see is a reasonable dividend to enable shareholders to profit alongside mgt.

I think a progressive dividend policy would see the shares relate drastically but at the moment the market valuation reflects suspicions that Volvere is run in the interests of the Directors rather than other holders.

Well done Rivaldo at predicting the value of JMP!

[eezymunny] 18/12/2015 08:52

Nice, eh?

The 500k I guess is mostly the Landers usual 10% of profit bonus.

My whopping holding is even more whopping after a few top ups today. Mr Market really does find VLE terribly dull. Which is nice - I seem to be the only buyer today :)

[rivaldo] 18/12/2015 08:28

Cheers Melf - can't believe I called it to the exact penny at £8m :o))

The only variation was the level of transaction costs etc which took VLE's share to £5.5m rather than £6m. Mind you, VLE did actually make almost £6m including JMP's dividends.

Not a bad return on the £0.4m cost. Congrats to the Landers - once again.

If Shire were also to be sold that could bring in another £8m (including the property etc).

Given the Landers' track record, the share price really should be well above 500p now imo.

The good news is that the 31/12/15 results and NAV will reflect the JMP disposal, so should show perhaps an NAV of say 550p-600p.

[melf] 18/12/2015 07:46

Hi RivI noticed in your header post you called this one spot on. Great work and great investment. RegardsMel

[rivaldo] 18/12/2015 07:14

RNS - JMP's been sold :o)) For £8m too, of which VLE get £5.5m...so another 130p or so of cash in the bank:



That takes VLE's cash pile (including the £0.5m deferred) up to over £17m.

And that's without any value at all in the share price for the other 3 businesses.

Hopefully we'll see a big jump this morning - ideally at least 130p. It'll probably be a lot less knowing the market, though actually it should be quite a bit more than that to reflect true value.....

[rivaldo] 30/11/2015 09:44

There's a very simple answer. VLE only want to buy in decent-sized packages of shares. You'll see that they've recently only bought in packages of 10k shares or above (with I think just one exception, and even that was well above 5k from memory).

Presumably those volumes are simply not available to buy, and are certainly not being offered to VLE's brokers. Any investor here knows how difficult it usually is to buy stock.

It's probably not worth the effort and expense buying in 1k-2k at a time given the dealing charges/broker fees plus the RNS issue costs (which I assume is why they've stopped buying in small amounts in the last few years).

I'm pretty sure that if VLE were offered a decent chunk of shares they would snap them up.

[clacre] 29/11/2015 18:14

I have to say that I'm disappointed that we haven't been buying in all available shares during this lull in the action. If the asset valuation really is as rosy as Rivaldo and others have been posting then this would be a no lose strategy wouldn't it? Apparently not. Volvere has a shed load of cash that it doesn't need earning next to nothing and could be buying in shares at a 50% discount to NAV, but it doesn't. Any explanations as to why because I don't get it myself?

[rivaldo] 23/11/2015 15:05

Nice to see a bounce, with small buying causing a decent tick up. Looks like the few profit-takers are now out.

[clacre] 05/11/2015 13:25

Whilst I was having my teeth cleaned at the dentists just now I heard on the Radio 2 news that new VW sales fell 10% in October compared to a year before. I thought that was pretty good myself. I was expecting much worse.

[rivaldo] 03/11/2015 12:43

Clacre, I'm genuinely delighted about these small bits of profit-taking affecting the price to this extent. I really do hope it falls further, for obvious reasons.

As for Impetus, VW is just one of their clients in a hugely impressive client list. Recent news flow features the likes of BMW, Toyota, Mini, with nary a mention for any VW brands. There may or may not be an effect, but overall it'll be the health of the global car industry which is more important in the long-term imo.

[melf] 03/11/2015 12:14

Apologies, of course it's cash to market cap.

[clacre] 03/11/2015 12:10

Boadicea - my understanding is that Impetus currently only gets paid by VW based on every new car sold. I can therefore see no upside whatsoever as VW new car sales are sure to be badly affected for the foreseeable future. If VW goes bust that would be seriously bad news for Impetus.

Melf - that's not right!

Rivaldo - you're not usually so flippant.

[melf] 03/11/2015 11:37

Of course as the price decreases, the cash per share ratio increases....always a nice backstop to have.

[boadicea] 03/11/2015 11:02

clacre - You raise an interesting point re. the effect of the Volkswagen debacle on VLE.

It could be either positive or negative depending on how VW chooses to tackle its problems - but there is clearly a risk factor until that point is cleared up.

Wrt the company buying in for treasury, they have (in recent times at least) not paid any more than 300p (Feb 2015) and 290p (Oct 2014). The level at which they may choose to buy again would sensibly indicate a degree of support and a possible level at which to add. My guess is that it would be not very much above the last buy at 300p and rather unlikely to be above 350p... but that is a pure guess and heavily dependent on whatever other opportunities the management may be considering.

Clearly this is an illiquid share with a recent average of about two trades per day, some days with none. So it's not one to rely on for a quick portfolio liquidation without much price penalty. Also the ride is one of fairly steady asset appreciation and not exciting - i.e. not to be compared with the current heightened interest in cybersecurity shares (NCC etc) or the (as yet often unrealised) potential of small technical-leading companies e.g. SRT.

As such it nevertheless forms a useful asset based part of a patiently held long term portfolio - imho and dyor.

[rivaldo] 03/11/2015 10:40

This is excellent. Hopefully the share price will drop to around 330p-340p again.....

[clacre] 03/11/2015 10:13

So what's happening? Shares trading at 365p!! You'd have thought that VLE would have been snapping up shares at £4 without a second thought but apparently not. Is Impetus screwed by the VW saga? If VW aren't selling many cars then that will badly impact Impetus's profits.

[rhomboid] 09/10/2015 15:06

Well there's a seller around , I'm topping up at near the bid price. I'm happy to hold this for the foreseeable future whilst the company creates value.

[the big fella] 08/10/2015 13:13

Riv

From what you posted I thought some not all present were existing holders. As such it would of been nice if one or two of the others would want a few.
I have held these since earlier in the year so I am quite happy to hold as there is value here waiting to be unlocked.