Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 24/6/2015 13:18

:o))

Online looks good - one can only buy a maximum 2,500 shares at the full 365p offer, whereas sellers can get a premium at 355p for 3,000 shares. So it doesn't look like the share price is going lower any time soon.

[boadicea] 23/6/2015 04:53

I have been watching this for a further buying op, perhaps around 330p - wouldn`t expect any lower as company likely to buy itself . However we seem to lack the necessary impatient sellers!

[rivaldo] 22/6/2015 08:30

Cheers chaps :o))

VLE's AGM is next Monday. VLE did - once - issue a trading update at their AGM, but usually it's just business as usual. Given the positive outlook at present it would be pleasing to see a further acknowledgement of the confidence and prospects.

[battlebus2] 19/6/2015 20:28

Thanks RP19, yes if Rivaldo is involved it's certainly one to take notice of.

[rp19] 19/6/2015 20:20

Yes, one to hold and not trade. Not a real lot of newsflow either, quietly and effectively going about their business. Rivaldo good at posting business updates, esp JMP related.

[battlebus2] 19/6/2015 19:30

Haven't had a chance to look at these a little closer since buying on results day but the one thing I have noticed is how quiet a share this is, very few trades either and little in the way of share movements. Not a bad thing at times. Did expect a little pullback to add more but that looks unlikely now.

[rivaldo] 15/6/2015 07:42

You may be right Boadicea. In addition, I very much doubt there's been enough loose stock around following the excellent results to warrant buybacks.

Only 1,500 or so shares can be bought at maximum in one go online, which makes obtaining sufficient shares for buybacks a difficult proposition.

[boadicea] 13/6/2015 08:52

I don't think a buy back is likely at the current price. The company seems averse to paying more than necessary and then only to mop up loose stock that could threaten a drop through a support level or the lower side of an establishing trend channel.
Historically, previous buy-backs have all been in such circumstances, e.g. during weak spells in the share price where it has been at the bottom of the recent trend channel, i.e around 260p in early spring 2014, 280p and 290p in May and Aug 2014 or most recently (Feb 2015) at 300p.
That would point to ~320p buy-backs in current circumstnces, which we may not see.
If anything below 330p threatens then a b-b could well follow imho.

[rivaldo] 11/6/2015 07:28

Interesting that the last 3 years have all seen share buybacks immediately after the prelims - but not this year.

VLE have around £12m+ of cash, so plenty to spare! Could be due to a lack of stock around, or perhaps there are corporate actions afoot which prevent such transactions taking place, i.e the sale of a business? We can only wait and see.

[rivaldo] 08/6/2015 08:25

Nice to see a small buy at the bell today.

Worth noting that online you can only buy 1,500 maximum at 365p, whilst you can sell 3,000 at a small premium at 351.1p. Encouraging stuff.

[rivaldo] 05/6/2015 10:08

Reciprocated sladdjo. I'll post any questions if I can't make the AGM.

[sladdjo] 04/6/2015 10:31

I'll be there Rivaldo - would be good to meet you in person.

Any questions for the Landers from anyone else, please dont be shy to say?

[rivaldo] 04/6/2015 07:48

In case anyone missed last night's RNS, the AGM will be on 29th June in London at 10.00 am, so they're certainly making it user-friendly:



Anyone going? I might attend myself unless other possible commitments get in the way.

[rivaldo] 02/6/2015 13:56

Big new interview with Impetus' sales and marketing director about their strategy. Some nice excerpts:



Extracts:

"We see Impetus Automotive's role as helping vehicle manufacturers quickly close the competitive gap that has grown between them and the aftermarket brands.

We also believe we can fulfil this role as Impetus Automotive has extensive experience in aftersales programmes. Specifically we have been running parts programmes for the last ten years. We currently run a number of parts and trade parts programmes for fifteen brands across the UK, Europe and globally. And this is a growing business for us, so we are clearly tapping into an industry need and it also applies in parts distribution in related sectors such as commercial vehicles and agricultural equipment."

"One of our accessory programmes has grown its contribution levels, over the last three years, to almost equal the revenue of the client's trade parts business."

[plentymorefish] 01/6/2015 13:09

Cheers for updating Riv!...

[rivaldo] 01/6/2015 12:15

Ta EM. Shire owns the freehold and equipment remember, which has been quoted at £5m recently, so my valuation includes an element for that. Useful info re Pukka Pies.

Two of the three corrections are merely updates/corrections of the info which was previously in there prior to today, so though necessary are not tripey, simply typo-y :o))

Impero are actually a privately owned classroom software company I have an involvement with. Very similarly named so confusing due to senility....

[eezymunny] 01/6/2015 11:39

It's Impetus Automotive not Impero. Imperos are those people with no clothes...

For Shire you say "£12.1m turnover in 2013" - should be "2014".

You say "Sira Defence trades at break-even on around £2-300,000 of annualised revenue. It made £80k PBT in 2014." Errr - that's as tripey as you get!

Feel Shire needs more growth to justify your valuation, and that looks perfectly possible given what they've done so far. I'm sure I dug out Pukka Pies accounts some time ago. £40m turnover and c. 10% net margins from memory, so plenty of room for improvement still.

Overall it looks hard to lose money here unless Impetus becomes a cash drain (I think they are too smart to let that happen but you never know) and as you point out upside now looks potentially very good with 4 companies in the stable.

Just my sort of thing.

[rivaldo] 01/6/2015 11:03

Cheers EM.

I've updated the thread header post for the latest news, with possible valuations, and I've surprised myself in how much upside there is!

I've come to a value of around 700p per share for the business as at 31/12/14, despite subtracting a round 100p per share for NAV already on the Balance Sheet, i.e Shire's property and assets, and despite being reasonably cautious on potential sale prices.

Adding in say £10m on an eventual turnaround for IAL gets the valuation close to 1000p per share....

I'm quite prepared for accusations of tripe, as this was done on the hoof quickly this morning! So happy to accept further corrections of arithmetical or assumption errors - remember this is broad brush stuff.

[eezymunny] 01/6/2015 09:08

Yes, it looks like you were right, and I posted a load of tripe, on what VLE paid for Impetus, Rivaldo ;) They seem to have persuaded the vendors to write off a heck of a lot of debt.

Suspect Impetus was in a poor way with revenues tumbling, a fall into losses, and unable to pay debts.

Whether they have got a bargain or not will depend on how well they turn things around....that is what they do after all! If they can prop up the top line, get costs right etc, no reason why this can't be worth 1 x revenue at some point (£11-12m).

[rivaldo] 01/6/2015 08:36

It's worth noting from note 28 to the results re the purchase of Impero:

- the consideration of £1.26m is even less than the rounded up £1.3m disclosed in the original acquisition RNS!
- this price includes debt repayment of £1.06m

We can conclude that this acquisition looks like another terrific bargain for VLE - remember that JMP was acquired for just £0.4m (confirmed in note 22).

[battlebus2] 31/5/2015 10:00

Thanks Rivaldo. Should move push on over the coming weeks.

[rivaldo] 31/5/2015 07:29

VLE's light is as usual pretty well hidden under a bushel press-wise, but at least there's a nice mention in Master Investor's market report summary:



"Shares in investment outfit Volvere (VLE) soared 30p to 357.5p following news that its pre-tax profits for 2014 were £1.6 million, more than triple what it achieved in 2013 and a turnaround from losses at the half-year point. Excellent results at Shire Foods including an exceptional gain of £0.85 million, which is 80% owned by Volvere, helped drive the improvement."

[rivaldo] 29/5/2015 15:52

No probs pmf, will do when things are quiet.

[plentymorefish] 29/5/2015 13:22

Riv, working on the premise 'you don't ask, you don't get', any chance of updating the info on the thread now the results are out?...helps remind me of why I hold these....cheers