Vigilant Share Discussion Threads

[wiganer] 23/5/2007 08:13

I'm finding it hard to be objective about this dog.

I'm holding for the time being, but common sense suggests it's either one to dump or load up on the cheap. But how the hell does a PI decide which given the uncertainties.

[masurenguy] 16/5/2007 16:38

"However, looking historically at companies who have made the turnaround (namely Axis and IND) then the PE ratio tends to track the growth. I.e. turnover/profits up 40% then PE close to 40".

Leadcom, an Israeli Telecoms company, has produced serial growth in both sales and profits of 40% for three consecutive years and the current PE is circa 12 and the forward PE remains in single digits !

[moosie101] 16/5/2007 16:12

Fair comment about the PE - it's impossible to predict what multiple the market will deem correct for a company in this sector in the future.

Equally a dodgy looking share listed in UK but registered abroad with a chequered history is not likely to be attractive to all but the bravest (riskiest) investors so this will hold the PE down.

However, looking historically at companies who have made the turnaround (namely Axis and IND) then the PE ratio tends to track the growth. I.e. turnover/profits up 40% then PE close to 40.

So a PE ratio of 30 is quite likely to go with this company if it has turned itself around as I hope.

Cheers

Moosie.

[masurenguy] 16/5/2007 15:06

An Israeli tech company on a PE of 30 !
Haven't come accross any of those before. Seems to me that 12 - 15 is a much more likely rating, which would establish a target share price in the range of 35p - 45p if and when they attain future profitability.

[moosie101] 16/5/2007 09:16

Good man, PP. I'm sure there must be a legal requirement to announce year end reports within a specified timeframe (or announce the reason for not meeting the timeframe).

You probably use the phone, but if you need email addresses for some of the people I have dealt with at Citigate then let me know.

Out of interest what are you forecasting for this year and next? Here are my figures:

2006H2 (US$'000s)
Turnover: 1500
Cost of Revenues (incl S&M): 2250
Gross Profit: -750
R&D: -1500
Admin: -950
Operating Profit: -3200
Financial income: 330
Profit before/after tax: -2870

So 2006FY is a big disaster, but then the company works through its delayed contracts, sorts out the fire issue and gets back on track in 2007 with:

2007FY (US$'000s)
Turnover: 8500
Cost of Revenues (incl S&M): 5050
Gross Profit: 3450
R&D: -3700
Admin: -2000
Operating Profit: -2250
Financial income: 250
Profit before/after tax: -2000

With sufficient cash in bank to pay for these turnaround years, we would then be back to stability and can look to grow turnover (in line with market trends), benefit from operational gearing and thus move to break even in 2008 and then profitability for 2009 and beyond.

Trying to convert this into a share price is a little tricky as P/E ratios for these companies are quite varied. But using a 30x PE ratio would imply a share price of 90p in four years. So a 7 bagger from my buy-in price and even better from today's price.

Cheers

Moosie.

[paulypilot] 15/5/2007 02:20

Hi,

Moosie - I agree. It's an absolute disgrace that the company is witholding results for y/e 31/12/2006. They should have been published months ago, I'm very unhappy about this situation & it doesn't exactly fill one with confidence.

Think I might start making some phone calls later this week & kicking some butts, with the company's NOMAD & the company itself.

Regards, Paul.

[moosie101] 14/5/2007 11:39

Update on results:

Now they will be announced by the end of June!!!

Bearing in mind we all know an individual has been buying huge quantities of this stock and yet the price is still falling things are a little worrying right now...

[wiganer] 27/4/2007 10:03

Added a few.

[rafas_reds] 03/4/2007 08:18

Well these minnows don't hold up well without news could well be a topping up opp for the brave....

[moosie101] 23/3/2007 12:53

Last year's finals were announced on 21st March 2006, so I naively assumed 21st March this year would be the correct date for this year's final results.

However, I have emailed Citigate (Vigilant's investor relations officers) and have been told that the results will be announced by April 30th although there is no confirmed announcement date.

No calendar of events on the website or in the annual report...

Cheers

Moosie.

[rafas_reds] 07/3/2007 15:52

interesting broker trade 500k x 2

[mo123] 25/2/2007 16:44

From last weeks asmag

Today, IP-based systems have proved to be more reliable than their analog counterparts. Analysts from J.P. Freeman and Co. have forecast that network cameras are the fastest-growing segment in surveillance, and sales will surpass those of analog cameras in 2008. A market report done by Frost & Sullivan on video-surveillance software also suggests that sales of intelligent security software and solutions will continue to grow at a "healthy compound annual growth rate" for at least the next five years.

It shows the potential VGT have in turning this growth into rising profits over next 5 years. Lets hope mgmt are on the ball.

[rafas_reds] 23/2/2007 14:10

Gets a mention in shares mag talks about various contracts, says the cctv cameras in bluewater used to try and identify people wearing hoodies to crack down on antisocial behaviour belong to vgt....

Shares says Showing good growth potential, but needs to ensure it can produce solid results...

[mo123] 19/2/2007 16:10

Press release from yesterday (its also on their site)

[manks321] 19/2/2007 13:06

A nice start to the week

[manks321] 16/2/2007 12:22

This is another interesting one in this sector. I bought some VDI this morning since several directors have bought in big amounts. I think this sector is a very good one for growth in the future.

[lyonst5] 16/2/2007 10:16

Bought 25k this morning not showing yet. Good future ahead. I use currently a simalar cctv system in a business, its benefits are invaluable.

[rafas_reds] 16/2/2007 09:10

Sector is certainly in vogue at the moment, and with 17 casinos to built in the uk and the paranoia concerning terror also with local authorities moving from coaxial cabling to ip cameras certainly a good time to be holding this one in my view....

[wiganer] 16/2/2007 08:34

I bought a few this morning. Looks good for a decent recovery run.

[rafas_reds] 16/2/2007 08:27

I agree regarding the spread you are down a fair bit before you start, they must of been listening to you they have knocked the offer back to 15 on the positive side when it does move it will move sharply, looking forward to see who has bought in or added to their existing holding...

[sandbank] 16/2/2007 08:15

The really depressing thing about these otherwise promising shares is the killer spread. 18% is just ridiculous

[affc21] 15/2/2007 19:09

I have updated the company website in the header.

[rafas_reds] 15/2/2007 18:06

Some chunky delayed volume traded in this one today...

[mo123] 13/2/2007 09:00

Co made 2.5p (4.7 cents)in earnings last year (2005) but 2006 will not be as good due to delayed orders. These late orders are now coming through and will be recognised this financial year. I would expect a much rosier outlook and statement for 2007 when results are published. Ceo bought shares recently so he must have some confidence in cos. future. As ever DYOR.