Vigilant Share Discussion Threads

[paulypilot] 01/6/2008 01:35

Hi,

Gogo - I would advise caution, as remember this is a public bulletin board & stuff written here gets lapped up by the competition & e.g. flagged up to potential customers. So you may be harming Vigilant's business by criticising them here.

The reality is that we can't influence anything particularly, and that Placings tend to be done with Institutions & high net worth individuals, because it's by far the most efficient way of raising smaller amounts of cash.

I've taken part in several Placings myself, and indeed in this situation I even phoned VGT's house broker to let them know that I was prepared to invest more in a Placing, several months ago, but was just given the brush-off & haven't heard from them since. Wasn't impressed, I have to say. But in a way maybe that's a good sign ? If they were desperate for cash, I probably would have got a call back.

Incidentally, I also called Israel & left a message, but they didn't call back either, but hopefully they're busy generating sales.

Anyway, whatever. Let's hope things are going well & the business succeeds. But if not, c'est la vie.

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 31/5/2008 10:54

My principal beef is that the company has obviously talked to at least two parties in order to receive additional funds, whereas PIs have received a paltry ambiguous paragraph as the shares get mauled.

As one who's experienced/witnessed injustice and mistreatment of PIs by management of underperforming companies I wouldn't be surprised to hear news of a decision to take the company private again at some nominal amount, say 4p. Why? Because:
1) The company has tapped the market for money to develop the product and is perhaps at the turning point of reaching profitability;
2) 4p would give an immediate return to those who just paid 3p and would be a minimal amount to raise to take to co. private;
3) Prior to the recent funding Syntek, Saghers and Chin held approx 41%, whereas now those three + Goldrock hold close to 48.5% - and I'm sure there'd be someone else close to the co. with another 1.6% to make a controlling 50%+ stake so all resolutions can be passed immediately.

Food for thought and I think one to definately watch out for.

[paulypilot] 30/5/2008 21:38

Hi,

I also give zero credence to anonymous posts on bulletin boards from people who I've never seen post before. All too often it's someone with an axe to grind (e.g. a competitor).

Agreed that the company's investor relations are appalling, but it is an overseas company, and to be honest I want management focused on Sales, and not fiddling around talking to PIs or preparing RNS's !

Personally am in two minds about buying more shares - since I already have 2m in various forms, what's the point in picking up (say) another 100k ?? (other than to make myself feel better by pushing the price up a bit).

If they do run out of cash, then the company clearly has some value in a trade sale.

Fingers crossed, what will be will be. It's such a tiny part of my portfolio now, it doesn't really affect me either way, but would be nice to see it turn around.

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 30/5/2008 19:27

pp,

I'm still happy to hold and will pick up more at some point, perhaps next week. I could be reading the situation completely wrong but I think that the company's doing ok and had short-term cash flow problems as it pulls itself out of losses.

This idea that they'll be bust within a few months I give no credence to - a cumulative sale of a paltry couple of £k worth of shares isn't anything to raise eyebrows at. My view is that fund managers would not have given any money at all (certainly not at 3p) to this company unless they were duped. I do feel that the two founders losing their exec status at the same time as the fundraising may be an indication of the indignation of Syntek at having to cough up though.

At least I'd expect prelim news within a few weeks now that we've pulled through May unscathed and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least EBITDA positive in current trading. Whether that would entice private investors to top up or come into this company is another matter!

adam,

I'm one of the small fry who is taking a small risk and buying by thinking it's a bargain and, if I understand you correctly, you are exactly right in that this company have done an absolutely appalling job in providing information to the market. Without a doubt, if the forthcoming trading news is good (which I hope for everyone's sake) and the company becomes successful and profitable I will be rid of these shares at a profit and likely never return. I will not support companies who give no thought to PIs, they're there for the trading as far as I'm concerned as there needs to be mutual respect.

[cyberpost] 30/5/2008 19:21

adam.. would ignore "sssooo" he seems to be posting similar rubbish across so many bombed out stocks. I guess he takes pleasure in such morbid practise.

The stock is so thinly traded that volume either way will make the share move drammatically if there is no volume in the other direction.

I dont think they would have raised £250k very recently IF the placees thought the company was in any imminent danger.

Dont hold but just going over it with a possible view to buying a few. They are involved in very good growth area (similar to Indigovision).

[sssoo1] 30/5/2008 19:03

I would rather not say anyhting else on the matter

[adam] 30/5/2008 18:52

ok thanks, worth a try!.
Like Paul, I have too many to even contemplate getting them away (a mere 750k), so will have to suffer the £55k loss. Anyway, I just think it's unfair on other shareholders. - I mean the small fry who may be buying thinking it's a "bargain" when the company should release a statement immediately stating their financial position.
Can you say it is a good source without revealing who - thanks.

[sssoo1] 30/5/2008 18:28

Never you mind.

[adam] 30/5/2008 17:25

Bust within a few months I am told today.

by whom?

[sssoo1] 30/5/2008 16:11

Bust within a few months I am told today.

Very sad.

[paulypilot] 30/5/2008 13:23

Hi Gogo,

Looks like it's just us 2 here.
The 46% drop today is on absolutely tiny volume, so it's difficult to know whether it's an ominous sign (we know the cash position is precarious), or a buying opportunity.

I agree the company should put out a statement. Personally I'm prepared for this to be a write-off, as with 2m shares I've got far too many to even think about trying to sell, it would be impossible to sell that size.

But given that the last update was very positive (although no figures given), one would hope there is some value in the company.

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 30/5/2008 13:10

Hopefully this collapse will produce a trading update/statement from the company. Maybe I should sell mine and try to get the price down 80% on the day just to make sure ;)

[gogoneko] 19/5/2008 19:49

Just noticed that they've added another bit to the media coverage (dated 25th Apr '08) for their work at Bath Uni ( ). They've also added another date to the upcoming events for end-June, so there are still signs of life in the company! :)

With luck we'll get some info in the next week or two as has been the case in the previous two years (AGM - 25th May '06, Trading update - 23rd May '07). I'm off on hols though soon so might miss out on the fun (or misery).

[gogoneko] 08/5/2008 07:51

Another dilution but to raise just £50k.

Again, the three +ves that oppose the -ve are that: 1) more than two funding groups consider the company to have a future, and 2) 3p is a respectable amount to invest at - implies that they consider downside is limited, and 3) it hasn't (yet! ;) ) been one of value-destruction dilution exercises that some companies resort to - although in the context of such a large decline in share price from 50p this probably doesn't count!

[gogoneko] 06/5/2008 08:45

Did anybody notice the Quadnetics Group (QDG) profits warning last Friday? QDG own Quadrant Video Systems who Vigilant have an operational relationship with.

It seems that QDG have had some order slippage and problems with some of their technology but they're saying that trading is strong. Interestingly they've got £7m cash.... they should buy VGT for 7p a share with that and still have a couple of million spare! :)

Actually I was doing some calculations at the weekend and reckon that VGT need half-yearly $6m revenues at 60% margin for breakeven. They only got $3m in H1 and would have run out of money by year-end if they'd only got $4-$4.5m in H2. The company is still going, so perhaps they got back the $1.5m from the insurance to tide them over for perhaps 4 months, i.e. until end-Apr, as I can't imagine the US contract was $4m upfront. I expect the $400k will pay for the May events.

If they didn't get the insurance/full US contract money they're perhaps close to operating at break-even - but they really need to increase revenue, bring down costs by more than $100k a month, and increase margins to more than 60%. The forthcoming results will be interesting!

[gogoneko] 29/4/2008 15:50

That's a few more in the kitty until the next news :)

[gogoneko] 29/4/2008 12:32

My assumptions are that Syntek wouldn't have invested now if they were likely to have their holding diluted in another fundraising which didn't involve them. Similarly it wouldn't make much sense if another fundraising were required and Syntek were invited to take part, i.e. why two requests to the same party?

I therefore, in light of the encouraging trading statement, think that the company is having to watch the costs very closely but only requires short-term capital to tide them over. I certainly think that the statement indicates that the company has a future whereas the share price dive seemed to imply otherwise. In fact the last sentence could be seen as an indication that sales have improved to such an extent that they need money to increase production. It's a possibility as there's certainly no mention of activity being scaled back in any form - which is what would be expected of a company experiencing hard times! Actually I think I've just convinced myself to buy some more ;)

[paulypilot] 29/4/2008 11:06

Hi,

Reassuring to get some news from the company, and this trading statement is most encouraging;

"Sir Trevor Chinn, Chairman, commented: "We have continued to grow our market
presence in our existing markets, and have made great progress in breaking into
new markets. This funding will provide additional working capital to fund
further marketing and sales achievements."


That said, £200k doesn't go very far, and one imagines the cash position must be pretty precarious. So a bit of a binary bet really.

If the company does need to raise more cash (very likely IMO) then I'd much rather see them put out good figures & let the share price rise somewhat before diluting existing holders any more. Though I can live with 10% dilution at 3p.

Fingers crossed !

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 29/4/2008 08:11

Wow! They do issue news!

Inasmuch as it's a 10.7% @ 3p dilution at least it's to an existing shareholder (albeit related party), at a not-too-unreasonable price (compared to the recent low of 2p) who presumably is trusted enough not to throw the shares into the market.

More importantly I suppose, is that they only needed £200k and from the comment "We have continued to grow our market presence in our existing markets, and have made great progress in breaking into new markets. This funding will provide additional working capital to fund further marketing and sales achievements." appears to indicate progress being made.

I see this as reasonably positive if things are going ok and this funding is either :

1) A stop-gap to a further call, or;
2) A filler to keep it going to profitability.

Personally my feeling is that the latter is more likely (because otherwise Syntek will be issuing shares only to see them diluted) although the former is also a possibility until the company announces that they're profitable.

[edit]
I'm not worried by that 100k trade; it looks like it's the trade that was bought on the dip and was then kind-of rolled over on the 18th.

[gogoneko] 28/4/2008 10:10

I just picked up a few more, and that's me fully invested for the time being.

Still no news from the company so I guess things are ticking along and from what can be read in the news you'd think that cctv was destined to appear on every street corner in the uk.

[paulypilot] 22/4/2008 10:16

Hi,

I'm intrigued by the flurry of buys in Vigilant over recent couple of weeks. I wonder who is buying, and why, given that there has been no news from the company for ages ???

Anyway, at least the share price is beginning to move in the right direction.

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 18/4/2008 12:53

Thanks for the update pp

It would be nice if they were getting orders from these exhibitions. Even if things are tight at least they're getting out there and trying to get the business.

[paulypilot] 18/4/2008 10:49

Hi,

Well I've tried to make contact with the company, but not got anywhere so far, as follows;

1) I rang the CEO in Israel, but got through to voicemail & my request for a call back has not been met.

2) Rang the financial PR people mentioned at the end of an RNS, and they very kindly called me back to say they no longer work for Vigilant (presumably part of the cost-cutting, which is fine)

3) Rang the NOMAD, Shore Capital, who didn't even want to talk to me at all !!!


This reminds me why I don't normally invest in non-UK companies !!!

Mind you, the share price continues to edge up, and the website contains dates & venues for trade shows where Vigilant is appearing, so clearly business is ongoing.

Would be nice if the company could at some point remember that they have shareholders & are a Listed company !!!

I will try calling Israel again next week. Bit busy today.

Regards, Paul.

[gogoneko] 10/4/2008 14:21

I'm not 100% sure but I think that the company have in the past day or two added another event later this month to demo at (Expo Security) so I'm still quite confident that things are better than the market thinks.

[gogoneko] 08/4/2008 17:49

With a 4% shareholding I'd be putting myself in touch with the directors asking what the hell they're playing at watching the share price slide 80% and saying nothing - they should be answering to you!