Vigilant Share Discussion Threads

[paulypilot] 08/4/2008 15:47

Hi,

The long silence from the company does make me fear the worst (the cash position must be pretty precarious by now), but as people have pointed out, there have been new contract wins & the opening of a new UK HQ, which are hardly the actions of a company that is about to go bust !

To a certain extent the share price is irrelevant anyway, as there are hardly any shares actually traded, so the MMs just mark it down on tiny volume.

Will be interesting to see how it progresses. I still hold (indirectly) 4% of the company, so would be nice if it does multi-bag ! But I've also effectively written the shares off, and they're so low now anyway, it won't make much difference to me even if they do go under.

But let's hope a huge rebound is in the offing !
Would be nice if the company bothered to update shareholders occasionally, their reporting is absolutely awful - infrequent & very late !

Cheers, Paul.

[gogoneko] 31/3/2008 20:26

Just seen that they're exhibiting in Las Vegas later this week so before saying anything they're maybe waiting to see how much interest there is and whether any orders are likely.

[gogoneko] 31/3/2008 14:26

I reckon that even if the shares drop to 1p (which I guess is likely in the absence of prelims - and will probably pick up some more when they get there) they'd be back up quickly on news of stable operations. Unless the business is looking very good going forward I doubt I'd stay invested for long though given that the management appear apparently unconcerned that their company loses 80% of its value in just a few weeks - it's not far off inconsiderate arrogance/ignorance that they've chosen to say nothing to date.

[hugepants] 31/3/2008 14:03

I guess with market cap this tiny theres always the chance it can multi-bag. Clearly risky though.

Just as a comparison in same sector Visual Defence (VDI) now trading at cash value (and well below net liquid assets and NAV) despite operating profit in H2.

[gogoneko] 31/3/2008 13:46

My risky assumption is that as they haven't announced the need to raise funds there's a 50:50 chance that they either don't need to and things are tight but ok, or they're facing going out of business. I've taken a small wager on them staying afloat and had hoped to see the prelims today but they've not arrived.

In these situations most anticipate the worst but in the past few months they've delivered a promising long-term casino agreement, opened the new HQ, cut costs by $100k a month and maybe have an insurance payment to use. In a competitive market last year's sales and marketing push is hopefully producing results as you'd expect them to say in the interims, otherwise I've just wasted £600! :)

[hugepants] 31/3/2008 11:10

Theres been no contract news so Id guess they are out of cash. A sale of the company may be more more likely than a new fund-raising.

[adam] 31/3/2008 10:55

How can they raise funding at these levels?

[paulypilot] 03/2/2008 01:54

Hey Moosie,

Good to see there's one other VGT shareholder out there !
I'm still sitting tight here with about 4% of the company in the dusty depths of my portfolio.

One thing to point out about their new UK HQ was that it's not that big - only 4,000 sq.ft. , so I doubt they've paid that much for it. But they were particularly good at winning contracts in the UK, so I guess having a proper office here is important.

Will be interesting to see the next set of numbers. I'd imagine some more funding will be required, unless they've managed to break into profit already.

Fingers crossed.

Regards, paul.

[moosie101] 24/1/2008 08:09

Sounds good, if a little lavish to be hiring celebrities before making the profit to pay for them!

Outgrowing their old office probably puts Vigilant firmly in the great growth or big disaster category of company.

And hopefully they will have their AGM in Sunbury as it's just around the corner from where I live.

Cheers

Moosie

[paulypilot] 23/1/2008 21:06

Vigilant opens new UK HQ

[paulypilot] 06/11/2007 08:10

Hi Moosie,

I looked at Visual Defence a while ago, yes, but couldn't get excited about it. Can't remember why.

Excellent contract win from Vigilant today, $4m deal with US Casinos group;


I agree that cash position at VGT must be precarious, but £4m mkt cap is far too low. It's gotta be worth more than that on a trade sale. Caompanies can raise fresh cash you know, that's one of the reasons for being Listed on AIM.

Regards, Paul.

[moosie101] 23/10/2007 12:15

Hi PP

The strong order book looks good and there's definitely potential here.

However, the cash is running out which means either:
a) raise money in the market through a placing/rights issue which will obviously not be good for the share price; or
b) borrow money - but the credit crunch is going to make that tricky.

I'm personally interested in companies that are cash generative at the moment so while I see these as having a chance of being a multi-multi-bagger I won't be topping up.

By the way have you ever cast your eye over Visual Defence. I'm not a holder but it's looks like a very similar company to Vigilant.

Regards

Paul.

[paulypilot] 28/9/2007 07:59

Hi,

Excellent sales growth reported today by Vigilant - Interim turnover up over 200% on last year & order book strong;




Would expect them to raise some fresh cash on the back of these numbers.
Israeli company, but biggest market is UK.

Regards, Paul.

[wiganer] 20/7/2007 11:11

Yw Pug.
I halved my holding a few weeks ago and again this morning, before the bid dropped back down as seemed on the cards. The few I still hold I'm reasonably happy to hold as a punt, but I won't be adding.

[pugugly] 20/7/2007 11:05

Wiganer:> Thanks for that -Confirms my concers.

[wiganer] 20/7/2007 11:02

I hold a few, and am encouraged by the sales growth, but I'm afraid the share price bounce looks a little bogus. MMs are happy to sell, but won't buy even £1200 worth of shares. Draw your own conclusions.

[lewis winthorpe] 20/7/2007 09:07

Do some research into ACC while with some of your profits from here. Interims next week 12p fair value currently 6p.

LW.

[pugugly] 20/7/2007 08:46

Moosie101;> Market appears to be over reacting (updide) to the rns. Nothing about bottom line. Going by your post 63 well under target on the revenue front and will have to do a lot of work in the 2nd half.. We know from the Visonic [blast them] announcement that life is very tough.

If your cost estimates are any where near correct then another big loss coming up this year.

do you agree?

[paulypilot] 20/6/2007 16:13

Hi,

Must admit I am still pretty stunned from these figures, especially how on earth they have managed to burn through a large cash pile so quickly.

That said, we know that trading in 2007 has improved, but it needs to !

£5m mkt cap is one twelfth of IndigoVision mind you, so there's a lot of upside here if VGT can get some momentum going with sales.

Regards, Paul.

[wiganer] 20/6/2007 12:36

Can't see much general buying interest arisbeing triggered, so what we need is a bold and wealthy PI to build up a stake. Maybe one who's just getting a heap of funds from a tender offer elsewhere, leaving him underweight in tech stocks? ;-)

[wiganer] 20/6/2007 12:33

The bit that baffles me is how last year they made millions in profits and got a tax credit, yet this year they lose millions and have a tax charge...

[paulypilot] 20/6/2007 12:32

Hi,

Results for y/e 31/12/2006 finally released;


Figures are even worse than I expected, glossed over with bizarrely upbeat commentary.

However, the current trading bit reads quite positively, just wonder if they can stem their cash burn before the remaining cash runs out.

The product clearly must be good, as they've got a pretty impressive list of reference sites in the UK public sector - a bunch more UK local authorities mentioned today.

Regards, Paul.

[wiganer] 24/5/2007 09:44

Twould be nice if they got a "megacontract", such as the huge new Shopping Centre in White City.

[paulypilot] 24/5/2007 01:14

Hi,

Well we expected bad news didn't we. Pretty obvious from what the share price has been doing. But it's a Call Option on the contract wins, and they look pretty good to me. Reminds me of IND when everyone thought that was a dog too. Since 30-bagged.

This will either multi-bag or go bust IMO.

Regards, Paul.

[wiganer] 23/5/2007 09:46

Well, I am holding on, but not adding.

The lack of big selling so far today or in the run up to the announcement is a small positive. A bit of director buying after the results come out wouldn't go amiss.