Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Victoria Oil & Gas LSE:VOG London Ordinary Share GB00BRWR3752 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 33.00p 32.25p 33.75p 33.00p 33.00p 33.00p 73,159.00 13:31:33
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 14.5 1.1 0.1 280.0 36.13

Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
06/12/2016
11:15
We calculate Risked NAV of 170p/share, indicating a significantly undervalued stock (which is more than underpinned by 2P reserves alone), in our opinion. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation accounts for Logbaba reserves and resources, with the latter risked at 30%. We have also taken a small portion (circa 250bcfe recoverable) of net prospective resources at Matanda, risking these volumes more aggressively at 10%. Our assumed “in ground” values range from US$4-6/boe and are benchmarked against comparable African projects assessed by us. In addition, we have assumed a value for VOG’s strategically important pipeline infrastructure (at circa two thirds of balance sheet carrying value) and have made financial adjustments to reflect forecast net debt and the present value of central costs. Conclusions VOG’s recent interim results and quarterly update demonstrated a continued strong gas sales performance from its core Logbaba project in Cameroon and, with the company now firmly profitable, we forecast continued earnings progression as a result of current growth initiatives. We anticipate imminent spudding of two appraisal/development wells at Logbaba and, with phased extensions to the pipeline network now commissioned, we believe that the company is extremely well positioned to expand its reserves and production. As an integrated gas production business dominating its local market in Douala, VOG is highly differentiated amongst its African E&P peers on AIM, combining a strong geographic focus with a straightforward, highly commercial business model and significant growth potential. Assignment of an operated interest in the Matanda block provides a much expanded footprint in-country and we also note plans to supplement the portfolio with additional complementary projects. However, we believe that successful implementation of the forthcoming drilling programme will be the critical value driver for VOG in the shorter term, given the potential impact on a reserves base which already more than underpins the current share price, in our opinion. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of circa US$17m both this year and next and we see excellent scope for the company to expand customer supply and deliver meaningful earnings progression through FY2017. We expect healthy operating cash flow and existing debt facilities to readily accommodate the company’s capex plans. Our Risked NAV estimate stands at 170p/share, a figure which we believe is fully justified by VOG’s existing reserves base, established pipeline network and unrisked potential at Logbaba and Matanda. We acknowledge that ground operations have yet to commence at Matanda but have accounted for only a small portion of prospective resources here and believe that this project is of strategic importance. Accounting for financial adjustments, we estimate that Logbaba reserves alone contribute 56p/share to Risked NAV and also highlight the value of the pipeline infrastructure. Future execution will be key to driving the share price, we believe, and we see scope for very material upside as VOG implements its ambitious work programme to expand reserves, production and process/delivery capacity.
grimreaper5
06/12/2016
11:15
Initiating coverage: A unique gas business model in Cameroon Cash flow, growth and value We are initiating coverage on Victoria Oil & Gas Plc (Victoria) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of £1.00 per share. Victoria is a £40 mm Market Cap Gas play in Cameroon, where the company is leveraging past investments in pipeline infrastructure in Douala to directly sell molecules to industrial consumers. With gas demand growing very fast and a deregulated market with gas still priced at US$9-17/mcf, the value of the company’s c. 22 mmboe (c. 132 bcf) 2P Reserves is disproportionately high. This implies very healthy economics, even in the current environment. We expect gross production of 1.5 mboe/d (including 8.6 mmcf/d) in 2015 to grow to 6.0 mboe/d (36 mmcf/d) by 2020. Victoria also holds multi tcf Prospective Resources at Matanda and Logbaba, which are relatively low risk. Our Core NAV for Victoria stands at £0.87 per share. Our Core NAV already represents almost 160% upside to current levels. Including the two low risk wells the company is drilling in 2016, which are targeting less than 5% of the company’s overall Prospective Resources at Logbaba, suggests a ReNAV of £1.02 per share. This does not include any value for the large resources at Matanda. The shares also trade at EV/DACF multiples of only 2.4x in 2016, 2.2x in 2017 and drop to 1.6x in 2019. We continue to see much more value in micro caps such as Victoria, compared to most large, international E&Ps that now trade at or above their Core NAV and often their ReNAV. Our target price offers 200% upside Our £1.00 target price is based on ReNAV estimate of £1.02.
grimreaper5
06/12/2016
11:14
Bonaberi shore pipeline extension The 3.17km pipeline laid during the quarter, part of the Bonaberi expansion, brings the total pipe laid in 2016 to 12.25km. Of this pipe laid, 7.13km was commissioned by quarter end, bringing GDC’s total commissioned pipeline network to 40.05km. The remaining 5.12km was commissioned shortly after quarter end, bringing total pipeline laid by GDC and commissioned to 45km. In Q4 2016 the team will focus on the branch lines to customers and installation of the PRMS units (pressure reducing/metering station) at customer sites, with the aim of bringing new customers online with gas before the end of the year. VOG CEO Ahmet Dik said: “In this quarter we continued to deliver consistent gas sales to our customers while progressing the Bonaberi thermal expansion programme. We will be soon approaching 50km of pipeline laid by GDC, which is a major milestone for our company. On the drill rig, all key assembly, testing and safety inspections have been completed and final independent inspections will be concluded next 10 days. Although the lightning strikes delayed us about 6 weeks, we are now on schedule to commence spudding in November 2016. We shall provide regular drilling updates over the next months.” Logbaba Gas Plant Capacity Expansion Phase one of the gas plant expansion, which aims to increase the plant’s capacity from 20mmscf/d to 25mmscf/d, is progressing with the preliminary engineering phase. Further phases of the gas plant expansion will depend on the drilling
grimreaper5
06/12/2016
10:10
only in the trouser department.
fatnacker
06/12/2016
09:49
sleveen, are you short?
pixi
06/12/2016
09:47
peter, are you short?
pixi
06/12/2016
08:21
sleveen they are just trying to hide my posts. but they have only stopped people reading and posting. what do you think about foo saying MOST customers are paying $9-16. seems things are getting worse than better. no wonder he is not keen on telling the shareholders the facts. what with grimm getting his 40% now and the price dropping the bottom line is going to take a hammering. i will have to post this a few times today again as it will be buried by fatty and grimreaper
peterpowell21
05/12/2016
19:02
so not really puffery then? whatever that is.
fatnacker
05/12/2016
16:37
We calculate Risked NAV of 170p/share, indicating a significantly undervalued stock (which is more than underpinned by 2P reserves alone), in our opinion. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation accounts for Logbaba reserves and resources, with the latter risked at 30%. We have also taken a small portion (circa 250bcfe recoverable) of net prospective resources at Matanda, risking these volumes more aggressively at 10%. Our assumed “in ground” values range from US$4-6/boe and are benchmarked against comparable African projects assessed by us. In addition, we have assumed a value for VOG’s strategically important pipeline infrastructure (at circa two thirds of balance sheet carrying value) and have made financial adjustments to reflect forecast net debt and the present value of central costs. Conclusions VOG’s recent interim results and quarterly update demonstrated a continued strong gas sales performance from its core Logbaba project in Cameroon and, with the company now firmly profitable, we forecast continued earnings progression as a result of current growth initiatives. We anticipate imminent spudding of two appraisal/development wells at Logbaba and, with phased extensions to the pipeline network now commissioned, we believe that the company is extremely well positioned to expand its reserves and production. As an integrated gas production business dominating its local market in Douala, VOG is highly differentiated amongst its African E&P peers on AIM, combining a strong geographic focus with a straightforward, highly commercial business model and significant growth potential. Assignment of an operated interest in the Matanda block provides a much expanded footprint in-country and we also note plans to supplement the portfolio with additional complementary projects. However, we believe that successful implementation of the forthcoming drilling programme will be the critical value driver for VOG in the shorter term, given the potential impact on a reserves base which already more than underpins the current share price, in our opinion. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of circa US$17m both this year and next and we see excellent scope for the company to expand customer supply and deliver meaningful earnings progression through FY2017. We expect healthy operating cash flow and existing debt facilities to readily accommodate the company’s capex plans. Our Risked NAV estimate stands at 170p/share, a figure which we believe is fully justified by VOG’s existing reserves base, established pipeline network and unrisked potential at Logbaba and Matanda. We acknowledge that ground operations have yet to commence at Matanda but have accounted for only a small portion of prospective resources here and believe that this project is of strategic importance. Accounting for financial adjustments, we estimate that Logbaba reserves alone contribute 56p/share to Risked NAV and also highlight the value of the pipeline infrastructure. Future execution will be key to driving the share price, we believe, and we see scope for very material upside as VOG implements its ambitious work programme to expand reserves, production and process/delivery capacity.
grimreaper5
05/12/2016
16:36
Bonaberi shore pipeline extension The 3.17km pipeline laid during the quarter, part of the Bonaberi expansion, brings the total pipe laid in 2016 to 12.25km. Of this pipe laid, 7.13km was commissioned by quarter end, bringing GDC’s total commissioned pipeline network to 40.05km. The remaining 5.12km was commissioned shortly after quarter end, bringing total pipeline laid by GDC and commissioned to 45km. In Q4 2016 the team will focus on the branch lines to customers and installation of the PRMS units (pressure reducing/metering station) at customer sites, with the aim of bringing new customers online with gas before the end of the year. VOG CEO Ahmet Dik said: “In this quarter we continued to deliver consistent gas sales to our customers while progressing the Bonaberi thermal expansion programme. We will be soon approaching 50km of pipeline laid by GDC, which is a major milestone for our company. On the drill rig, all key assembly, testing and safety inspections have been completed and final independent inspections will be concluded next 10 days. Although the lightning strikes delayed us about 6 weeks, we are now on schedule to commence spudding in November 2016. We shall provide regular drilling updates over the next months.” Logbaba Gas Plant Capacity Expansion Phase one of the gas plant expansion, which aims to increase the plant’s capacity from 20mmscf/d to 25mmscf/d, is progressing with the preliminary engineering phase. Further phases of the gas plant expansion will depend on the drilling
grimreaper5
05/12/2016
16:36
Bonaberi shore pipeline extension The 3.17km pipeline laid during the quarter, part of the Bonaberi expansion, brings the total pipe laid in 2016 to 12.25km. Of this pipe laid, 7.13km was commissioned by quarter end, bringing GDC’s total commissioned pipeline network to 40.05km. The remaining 5.12km was commissioned shortly after quarter end, bringing total pipeline laid by GDC and commissioned to 45km. In Q4 2016 the team will focus on the branch lines to customers and installation of the PRMS units (pressure reducing/metering station) at customer sites, with the aim of bringing new customers online with gas before the end of the year. VOG CEO Ahmet Dik said: “In this quarter we continued to deliver consistent gas sales to our customers while progressing the Bonaberi thermal expansion programme. We will be soon approaching 50km of pipeline laid by GDC, which is a major milestone for our company. On the drill rig, all key assembly, testing and safety inspections have been completed and final independent inspections will be concluded next 10 days. Although the lightning strikes delayed us about 6 weeks, we are now on schedule to commence spudding in November 2016. We shall provide regular drilling updates over the next months.” Logbaba Gas Plant Capacity Expansion Phase one of the gas plant expansion, which aims to increase the plant’s capacity from 20mmscf/d to 25mmscf/d, is progressing with the preliminary engineering phase. Further phases of the gas plant expansion will depend on the drilling
grimreaper5
05/12/2016
16:36
Initiating coverage: A unique gas business model in Cameroon Cash flow, growth and value We are initiating coverage on Victoria Oil & Gas Plc (Victoria) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of £1.00 per share. Victoria is a £40 mm Market Cap Gas play in Cameroon, where the company is leveraging past investments in pipeline infrastructure in Douala to directly sell molecules to industrial consumers. With gas demand growing very fast and a deregulated market with gas still priced at US$9-17/mcf, the value of the company’s c. 22 mmboe (c. 132 bcf) 2P Reserves is disproportionately high. This implies very healthy economics, even in the current environment. We expect gross production of 1.5 mboe/d (including 8.6 mmcf/d) in 2015 to grow to 6.0 mboe/d (36 mmcf/d) by 2020. Victoria also holds multi tcf Prospective Resources at Matanda and Logbaba, which are relatively low risk. Our Core NAV for Victoria stands at £0.87 per share. Our Core NAV already represents almost 160% upside to current levels. Including the two low risk wells the company is drilling in 2016, which are targeting less than 5% of the company’s overall Prospective Resources at Logbaba, suggests a ReNAV of £1.02 per share. This does not include any value for the large resources at Matanda. The shares also trade at EV/DACF multiples of only 2.4x in 2016, 2.2x in 2017 and drop to 1.6x in 2019. We continue to see much more value in micro caps such as Victoria, compared to most large, international E&Ps that now trade at or above their Core NAV and often their ReNAV. Our target price offers 200% upside Our £1.00 target price is based on ReNAV estimate of £1.02.
grimreaper5
05/12/2016
13:46
you really do need to read these RNS very slowly to find those key little word like MOST customers. infact they have been dropping little hints for a while now that there prices were coming under pressure. well it seems they have started dropping the price already. this does not look good, when they say they have 5 year contracts with these companies. seem the contracts are as good as the ones they had for kenerkol, where they lost the lot. or on the occasion foo was told he had a water tight case to take grimms 40%. it's just ammazing how often the same problems seem to keep reapearing. always look back at a companies history, its the only fact baised info you can rely on. the fact that this company is spending money like its confetti.they have a long history of dilution, it would not surprise me to see another very soon. aimo
peterpowell21
05/12/2016
13:11
you really do need to read these RNS very slowly to find those key little word like MOST customers. infact they have been dropping little hints for a while now that there prices were coming under pressure. well it seems they have started dropping the price already. this does not look good, when they say they have 5 year contracts with these companies. seem the contracts are as good as the ones they had for kenerkol, where they lost the lot. or on the occasion foo was told he had a water tight case to take grimms 40%. it's just ammazing how often the same problems seem to keep reapearing. always look back at a companies history, its the only fact baised info you can rely on. the fact that this company is spending money like its confetti.they have a long history of dilution, it would not surprise me to see another very soon. aimo
peterpowell21
05/12/2016
12:28
you really do need to read these RNS very slowly to find those key little word like MOST customers. infact they have been dropping little hints for a while now that there prices were coming under pressure. well it seems they have started dropping the price already. this does not look good, when they say they have 5 year contracts with these companies. seem the contracts are as good as the ones they had for kenerkol, where they lost the lot. or on the occasion foo was told he had a water tight case to take grimms 40%. it's just ammazing how often the same problems seem to keep reapearing. always look back at a companies history, its the only fact baised info you can rely on. the fact that this company is spending money like its confetti.they have a long history of dilution, it would not surprise me to see another very soon. aimo
peterpowell21
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