Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 11/2/2017 12:44

red
I think Anand's growing of GNK has peaked and it is now an elephant that can't gallop.
I did really well out of GNK over the years but have lost interest.
I mean to watch YNGN but keep forgetting.
apad

[apad] 11/2/2017 10:02

red
Yup, I remember holding SN. ages ago, waiting for management to get its act together.
Life's too short!
apad

[apad] 11/2/2017 08:41

Didn't get ELM, mod. Been a good recovery from last summer - great dip.
I would never have looked at HYR because of the risk of 'greenwash'.

It wasn't a bad piece, by IC standards, on VANL. It hi-lites the importance of piling as a USP. My view is still that the context of rail building is needed to keep the specialist kit fully employed and drive profits. Also, I have gone for PTSG with its specialist acquisition model.

apad

[modform] 10/2/2017 22:16

Apad,Seems like a good acquisition for ELM, and market is liking it too, not sure if you got any a few month ago.Do you remember HYR, the patented technology for cleaning transformer oil and the benefit of carbon foot print. It had been falling from grace and seems to have found some interest at these low prices. BTW, I hold neither. Pete, hope you got some KAZ, it looks like there will be further upside after BHP's Escondida copper mine declared force majeure

[redartbmud] 10/2/2017 21:11

APAD

I think that Sn. has Smin syndrome. Average to poor management. Smin changed management.

dacian.

I always take the IC with a pinch of salt. Multiple recommendations, more than likely on fairly superficial digging.
Thanks to APAD for the information.

I can't believe Gnk. Everybody seems to laud it but nobody wants to buy the shares.

red

[apad] 10/2/2017 16:48

VANL a tip in the IC, red.
apad

Dig in to Van Elle
BUY
Bull points
Housebuilding and infrastructure spending to rise
Innovative product range
Modest debt
Very strong cash flow
Bear points
Unknown liability claim
Bad weather could slow work by its clients
Van Elle (VANL) only floated on London’s
Alternative Investment Market (Aim)
last October, but the ground work specialist
has been trading for 30 years,
gaining a 15 per cent share of
this promising market in the
UK and establishing itself in
high-margin niches.
The list of positives attests to
the business’s strong position. Gross margins
are currently running at 36 per cent, and in
the past two years alone operating margins
have nearly doubled to 13.1 per cent. Cash
conversion is strong at about 100 per cent,
and despite net capital expenditure of £3.3m
in the six months to October 2016, net debt
was a modest £4.1m. Net proceeds of £7.4m
were raised from the flotation, and this will
be used to invest in additional piling rigs and
people in order to meet Van Elle’s traditionally
busier second half. Acquisitions could
also be on the cards.
The group is split into four divisions.
Ground engineering products (11 per cent of
forecast sales for the current year and 7 per
cent of profit) saw turnover rise by 84 per
cent in the first half, largely as a result of the
group’s Smartfoot product and its use in the
housebuilding sector. This is where a precast
modular foundation system is assembled
in a factory rather than on-site, so there is no
weather-related delay. Demand for pre-casts
is also expected to accelerate following the
opening of a new facility in Glasgow.
Specialist piling (33 per cent of sales and
half of profit) looks set to attract high levels
of activity in high-margin restricted access
work, where it takes specialist expertise to
carry out work in confined spaces. While ontrack
rail work has slowed, business is heavily
weighted towards the second half, when
rail companies use the Christmas and Easter
periods to carry out jobs. And the division
also secured its biggest ever contract, worth
£5m, in the first half.
Ground engineering services (44 per cent
of sales and 38 per cent of profit) and general
piling (12 per cent of sales and 5 per cent of
profit) have both improved gross margins,
thanks to a greater proportion of higher-margin
work, although operating profits at ground
engineering services were flat in the first half,
reflecting increased overheads associated with
the start-up of the Glasgow operation.
The shares took a hit when the half-year
results were announced, as only days earlier the
company was informed of a possible liability
related to payments due to a former employee.
No further details have been made
available, although analysts don’t
expect the issue to affect business.
At 111p, the shares are trading
on just eight times forecast earnings
for the year to April 2017, falling
to seven the following year. Given the support
that will come from increased investment
in housebuilding and infrastructure, we think
Van Elle is going to be kept busy, and it should
be in line for a larger slice of the construction
companies’ growth as more of their in-house
operations reach capacity. As with all construction
companies, bad weather can play a part
in reducing turnover, but this almost always
results in work delayed rather than lost. Buy. JC

[bigboots] 10/2/2017 15:51

What a boring investment.....

[apad] 09/2/2017 13:08

Red. SN - does the news negate your assessment?
apad

[apad] 09/2/2017 12:34

Thanks dacian, I had missed that - nothing new, but straightforward Finnspeak.

SSE and now PNN frighten me, as you know, red. Used to have large holdings in both.
As I get older I take more risks - not by the book at all.

apad

[redartbmud] 09/2/2017 10:51

Out of my trading stock in Sse. I am back to my normal weighting. It didn't go quite as well as I had anticipated, but a profit nevertheless. I was too ambitious on the purchase side. I should have waited for the share price to fall below £15. That would have improved my trade.

I read the full Credit Suisse analysis note on Pennon. The downside is very scary, if it came to pass. The share price jumped on today's statement. The Greater Manchester Waste Disposal project seems to be back under some form of control. I have no idea what the final cost effect will be to the business.

Of interest is the following statement:

Pennon has announced today that it has agreed terms with Nomura to unwind a derivative, entered into in 2011, through Peninsula MB Ltd. The derivative had been due to end in 2027, however, following a change in the economic benefit of this derivative outlined at the half year results 2016/17, Pennon is exercising its option to unwind the transaction early. The estimated overall post-tax impact of unwinding this derivative has already been reflected through the £39.5m derivative liability recognised at the half year results 2016/17.

Why do these FD's persist in buying these exotic products that seem to end up costing the businesses money. I suppose that I do understand, but what I don't get is why they keep getting it so wrong. Who does their financial modelling? If they aren't able to work it out maybe it is better they ignore it.

Sorry, two boring businesses, nothing like APAD's rides on the wild side.

red

[apad] 08/2/2017 18:57

"There is a big difference between knowing lots of facts and really knowing how a market works. And worse yet, if you should happen to really figure out aircraft, you will find that very little of that knowledge generalises to computers, which are in turn different from telecommunications, which do not at all resemble software." "If there is room for three airframe manufacturers in the world why is one in Seattle?"
Krugman Oxford Economic Review

[apad] 08/2/2017 18:47

VCT
The future is a foreign country. They do things differently there.
apad

[apad] 08/2/2017 09:07

"rag bag of businesses which never fired together"
Always my opinion, too late to change it now - imprinted!

FREE is freefalling, as makes sense. I wonder if I will give in to temptation at some point?
Maybe I'll specialise in roulette wheel stocks!

Good to see QTX on the rise. Classic dipstock.

VCT bounced halfway back after 08:30. Maybe that's the time the tintins read beyond the outlook statement.

apad

[redartbmud] 08/2/2017 08:22

The power of a good management team:

Numis has upgraded its rating on Smiths Group (SMIN) saying shares in the engineering company trade at a sector discount despite a turnaround.

Analyst David Larkam raised his recommendation from ‘add’ to ‘buy’ with a target price of £18.10. The shares advanced 2% to close 30p up at £15.40.

‘Smiths shares have performed well since the new management team arrived in autumn 2015 but continue to trade at a discount to the UK general engineering sector,’ he said.

‘There are encouraging signs of de-conglomeration of the group while increased research and development suggests management are committed to reinvigorating growth. Delivering on these two planks could return us to the “old Smiths” as a predictable, solid growth, cash generative engineering group along with a premium rating which the group used to enjoy.’

The plonkers previously in charge were clueless. They had a rag bag of businesses which never fired together, neither did they seem to have a clear strategy for each one. The new guy has evaluated key elements of each division, pruned the dead wood and got the good bits working more effectively.
I missed out by not keeping an eye on what has been going on. We may still be somewhere close to the start of the further development of the group.

red

[apad] 08/2/2017 07:40

Red,

Are you comfortable with SSE (£9billion debt and rising) increasing capital expenditure at a time of significantly reduced eps and increasing divi............whilst buying back shares for cancellation at high prices and at the current, enthusiastic rate?

Looks terrifying to me.

apad

[apad] 08/2/2017 07:32

I posted this on SOU (there are a very few good posters (perhaps 2) on SOU, so I dip in when I can face it - most of it is utter drivel, so I probably wasted my time):
"JP is talking up the share price in order to increase the value of the shares, which is sensible because he is juggling expenditure in both cash and shares.
The size of the task before him is large and his agenda is clearly to move fast. We do not know enough of the detail to judge his financial strategy - we know much more about his tactics, thanks to a few good posters on this Board..
If he hadn't been talking up the shares the company would be in a much weaker position than it is now - both in terms of financial power and the company's ability to negotiate deals. He would certainly have to move much more slowly."

I placed my chips on SOU for the following 'reasons':
CEO ex Shell.
Drilling in a known geologically rich area adjacent to Shell licenses.
Partnered with the large and informed Schlumberger, so access to new drilling techniques.
Drilling for gas.
Drilling on-shore.
Some drilling success before I bet.

I'm also comfortable with the VCT update :-) I think the market will respond reasonably favourably. VCT is adding value to its PEEK by way of products. Although it is out of patent, their experience is something of a badge of quality,
"At this early stage of the year and with our core business in growth, a continued focus on cost efficiency and a favourable currency environment, we remain comfortable with expectations for 2017."

Waiting on GSK Q4 (lunchtime?).

apad