Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 08/2/2017 07:32

I posted this on SOU (there are a very few good posters (perhaps 2) on SOU, so I dip in when I can face it - most of it is utter drivel, so I probably wasted my time):
"JP is talking up the share price in order to increase the value of the shares, which is sensible because he is juggling expenditure in both cash and shares.
The size of the task before him is large and his agenda is clearly to move fast. We do not know enough of the detail to judge his financial strategy - we know much more about his tactics, thanks to a few good posters on this Board..
If he hadn't been talking up the shares the company would be in a much weaker position than it is now - both in terms of financial power and the company's ability to negotiate deals. He would certainly have to move much more slowly."

I placed my chips on SOU for the following 'reasons':
CEO ex Shell.
Drilling in a known geologically rich area adjacent to Shell licenses.
Partnered with the large and informed Schlumberger, so access to new drilling techniques.
Drilling for gas.
Drilling on-shore.
Some drilling success before I bet.

I'm also comfortable with the VCT update :-) I think the market will respond reasonably favourably. VCT is adding value to its PEEK by way of products. Although it is out of patent, their experience is something of a badge of quality,
"At this early stage of the year and with our core business in growth, a continued focus on cost efficiency and a favourable currency environment, we remain comfortable with expectations for 2017."

Waiting on GSK Q4 (lunchtime?).

apad

[redartbmud] 07/2/2017 21:19

I am watching, but I think current levels are a bit high. I would be tempted on a dip, and we are bound to get one sooner or later.

red.

[apad] 07/2/2017 19:23

Yup. We agree.
I'm interested in whether "flat for a while yet" is/will-be an opportunity.
apad

[redartbmud] 07/2/2017 18:42

Watson Marlow has been the beacon of growth and stability in the business.
The thing about their steam pumps is the ongoing maintenance. Once installed, it is only Spx where they will go for spares and maintenance.
As the CEO said, things are going to be flat for a while yet.

red

[apad] 07/2/2017 18:14

ps
It's a difficult one for me as I am impressed with the SPX pumps, but I know that they had poor growth by acquisition decisions, before they stumbled on Marlow.
apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 17:41

RED,
I'm trying to match this to the, perhaps, overoptimistic response of the more specific O&G eng. suppliers. I'm not sure that big oil's spending will kick in as fast as the share price increases suggest.
WEIR might be different as they are an important supplier to frackers.
Hard to get real data on this issue - more a matter of opinion.
apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 11:46

ps
Although it is SPX that is really underperforming. Have to do some research.

[apad] 07/2/2017 11:44

ROR
FY early March. If it is lacklustre I may reduce.
apad

[hydrus] 07/2/2017 10:14

Thanks it's been a very good start to the year. However no doubt there will be big fluctuations.SUN - I don't think we disagreed? I'm just willing to leave a small amount in there as I've taken out my original stake at approx 80% profit. I don't have a view on whether management can continue to improve the business but they've done well turning it round. As it's less than 2% of my portfolio (which is up 32% YTD) I don't give it much attention......I will base any decision to sell or increase on news. There has been no news.

[apad] 07/2/2017 10:06

H,

PVG and G4M are powering ahead (76% & 44% YTD). Bloody well done.

However, I notice that SUN are 12% down since we agreed to differ about them :-)

apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 09:55

Ability to move mountains, H :-)

apad

[hydrus] 07/2/2017 09:50

Speculation by you and one other anonymous chap on an ADVFN bulletin board ? ;)

[apad] 07/2/2017 09:45

red,
Some speculation about Johnson & Johnson - possible interest in AMS.
apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 09:31

BP had an engineer CEO who got rid of all their in-house engineers, because you could buy-in engineering opinion and expertise.
It then put its senior staff in central London offices and they didn't talk to people on the ground, they dealt with remote information that might have been reinterpreted many times.
This central edifice of numptys presided over the destruction of the company.
Being big it is taking time.
I train practising O&G engineers in the failure of structures, such as pipelines, and have done so every year since 1969.
We have never had a BP engineer and have regular delegates from Shell (from many countries).
In essence, then, BP doesn't understand what it is doing.

I thought I had found an interesting company in FARN that nobody is talking about and might have some potential. I bought twice at an average price of 273p and now the bloody thing is up 33%!

Don't understand the Market's indifference to DOTD (int. late Feb.

Don't try to predict prices, try to identify good companies, apad.

There's no understanding RSW, red.
Other than as a technical plaything for the owners of course.

apad

[homebrewruss] 07/2/2017 09:31

APAD, yes the SOU tone was over the top and it does make you question their motivation for doing it. It does however appear like they have top people in their field within the team and I found the second half of the video with the geology useful.

[redartbmud] 07/2/2017 09:06

Rsw still bouncing around on virtually no volume. I can't weigh it up at present.

red

[redartbmud] 07/2/2017 09:04

It looks like Bp has some major structural problems in it's business model as it continues to recover from Macondo. It just shows how easy it is to get it wrong.
Their break even oil price is $60pbl. Doesn't sound too good to me. Uphill and stony for a while yet. That could be good for Shell.

red

[apad] 07/2/2017 05:14

GSK Q4 and VCT update tomorrow.

apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 05:07

Pleased about recent small cap purchases - QTX/AMS/FARN/PTSG.
FWIW
apad

[apad] 07/2/2017 05:04

Mornin' red,

It's not worth watching all of the SOU video as there is nothing new. The tone of it is extraordinary - like a convention - shares described as "golden tickets".

FEVR: eps for 2015 11.48p, eps for half year 2016 (not including Xmas) 8.12p.
Broker forecast eps for 2016 is 24p giving a PER of fifty odd.
Could be half that for 2017.
FY in March.
I'm not feeling cautious at all.
This company is also about brand valuation.

apad

[redartbmud] 06/2/2017 21:35

Caution on the horizon:

Citywire AAA-rated mid-cap veteran Richard Watts has trimmed his position in upmarket mixers manufacturer Fevertree (FEVR) as its shares have continued a six-month bull run.

Watts cut his holding to just over 9% of the company worth £139.2 million at a price of £13.28, up 90% over the last 12 months.

His £2.3 billion Old Mutual UK Mid Cap is the largest fund holder of the stock, closely followed by his AA-rated colleague Dan Nickols, with AAA-rated colleague Luke Kerr holding a smaller stake.

Both Investec and Berenberg aggressively upped their price targets on the stock last month, from £11.40 to £13 and from £12 to £13.25 respectively, both rating it a ‘buy’.

A number of managers have cautioned about its demanding valuation recently however, with consecutive new record highs sending it to a price 87 times last year’s earnings.

red

[redartbmud] 06/2/2017 21:17

Goes on a bit. I need to find an hour in my busy schedule to watch.

red

[apad] 06/2/2017 17:46

Evangelical, or what!

apad