Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[melody9999] 09/9/2016 08:29

Alex 4663 - thanks for that.

[qackers] 08/9/2016 19:45

I wonder if the spat with GSK has something to do with Advair generic. Flexing muscle but settle quietly?

[rivaldo] 08/9/2016 14:50

Peel Hunt value VEC at 200p per share (BTW this article really needed sub-editing...):

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/163605/this-unfancied-drug-stock-has-the-potential-to-soar-163605.html?utm_source=Sign-Up.to&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7163-356640-Campaign+-+07%2F09%2F2016

"This unfancied drug stock has the potential to soar
14:38 07 Sep 2016

Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share

There is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals as they copy-cat GlaxoSmithKline's asthma treatment.

They’ve been rewarded with an 11% rise in the share price post-results. But it has been a hard slog for investors in respiratory specialist Vectura Group PLC (LON:VEC), who have seen the stock drift by around a quarter over the last year.

The reason for the decline? Well, according to analysts, there has been a degree of uncertainty around the £441mln takeover of Skyeparma, completed this summer.

Earlier Vectura told the market the merger benefits would be higher than first anticipated.

What followed was a relief rally; in other words, the markets concerns weren’t crystalised.

So where to now for the stock?

Well, according the broker Peel Hunt, the recent weakness of the share price provides an opportunity.

Analyst Amy Walker says the company’s pipeline and technology platform is worth around 100p (or just over two-thirds of Vectura’s current valuation).

That provides almost a “free option” on VR315, a generic version of Advair, the “mega blockbuster” asthma product developed by GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK).

While Advair came off patent in 2010, it has remained uncontested until now because the delivery method retained patent protection. That final defence against the copy-cat producers has been eroded.

In the first half Advair generated sales of £1.7bn for Europe’s largest pharma company.

So there is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK).

Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share, compared to a current market price of around 145p. The consensus valuation is 206p, based on NPVs provided four other brokers and the highest of those estimates is 231p.

“Vectura has suffered a significant de-rating post the Skyepharma merger and recent disappointing news flow,” said

“Our detailed analysis of the assumptions baked into the share price and consensus forecasts…suggest the stock now offers a free option on VR315 (generic Advair) on both a net present value and mid-term multiples basis.”"

[alex2727] 08/9/2016 09:48

melody9999 .... 'alex2727 - as a new investor here, can you tell me why Frank Condella received so many votes opposed to re-electing him - over 25%?'

It's a bit historic, melody, but Skyepharma had a long and tortured history, and many city investors lost their shirts by backing it originally (Ian Gowrie Smith times), thus it became a hated name and many wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, even when things started to come good. Hence, in more recent times, the share price only took on a reasonable level of fare value when it became 'bleeding obvious' it was heading for profit and wasn't going to go bust. For good, or bad, Frank Condella will be seen as the last vestige of the old guard and still be associated by many with the bad days. A shame because he's a genuinely nice guy who knows his stuff, but he knows where the skeletons are buried so will, in my opinion, be really useful in making the merger work effectively.

It was also made clear yesterday that the board, as currently comprised, is a work in progress and there will further additions, and changes, as the new merged company moves forward. With that in mind, and with his job completed, I doubt FC will still be there in eighteen months.

Alex

[rivaldo] 08/9/2016 07:38

Also from the Mail:



"MARKET REPORT: Drug maker Vectura jumps up FTSE 250 leaderboard after revising profits estimates upwards for year following stellar sales of its flutiform asthma treatment

Drug maker Vectura jumped up the FTSE 250 leaderboard after revising profits estimates upwards for the year following stellar sales of its flutiform asthma treatment in the first half.

Max Herrmann, of broker Stifel, who has a ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock and forecasts revenues of £175m this year, said the recent share price weakness has been overdone.

Vectura’s shares plunged last week after flutiform failed a late stage trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, limiting its potential sales in Europe.

Even so, flutiform can be used ‘off-label’ for the late-stage lung disease, which means it can be sold if prescribed by a doctor, but it can’t be marketed by the company, analysts say.

The Wiltshire-based group, which makes treatments for asthma, listed on the Alternative Investment Market in 2004 and signed its first big Pharma collaboration with Novartis the following year.

Vectura recently merged with fellow UK biotech SkyePharma and announced it has dropped development of an experimental treatment called SKP-2075 following a review of its research and development pipeline. Instead, it plans to focus on the market for generic medicines, traditionally cheaper and more widely prescribed, which it intends to fund with the help of partners.

David Cox of Panmure Gordon pointed to a good performance from Solaraze, a pre-cancerous skin cream, and Advate for haemophilia, during the first half, but added these are due to short-term factors.

The shares closed 12.84 per cent higher, or 16.3p at 143.2p. Morgan Stanley is the group’s largest shareholder with a 10.6 per cent stake, while Invesco has a 9.7pc stake and Baillie Gifford just over 4 per cent."

[soundbuy] 08/9/2016 07:37

'trading at a premium' ??? The Times........hmmmmm

Stifel yesterday


'On our forecasts, Vectura currently trades on a 2017 P/E of 14.4x, a significant discount to its peers. Reiterate Buy.'


'Reiterate Buy rating. Based on our current forecasts Vectura trades on a
2017 P/E of 14.4x. We believe recent share price weakness has been
overdone. Buy.'

[fhmktg] 08/9/2016 07:19

Should be a few revised analyst reports over the next few days?

[rivaldo] 08/9/2016 06:56

Tipped in today's Tempus column in the Times....not very accurate as it's trading at a discount to the sector and it hasn't had many "enviable" days lately. But a tip is a tip :o))



"And finally . . .

It is one of Britain’s biggest pharma industry success stories and shareholders in Vectura, the specialist in inhaled drugs, enjoyed another enviable day yesterday. The shares surged by 10 per cent after it said it was raising its revenue expectations for the nine months to December 31. It was the biggest one-day gain for the shares since December 2013. Vectura has been growing rapidly in recent years after merging with SkyePharma. At 143¼p yesterday, its shares are trading at a premium to the rest of the sector, but still look attractive."

[melody9999] 07/9/2016 22:39

alex2727 - as a new investor here, can you tell me why Frank Condella received so many votes opposed to re-electing him - over 25%?

[sikhthetech] 07/9/2016 22:19

thanks for the updates from the agm.
Good outlook.

[alex2727] 07/9/2016 16:22

Sorry, Carpadium, I'm ex-SKP so Kinnovata wasn't on my radar. Not mentioned, unless it has a code (VR...) which I didn't recognise.

a1ord53 ... only mentioned in conversation after. I don't think it's considered any real threat.

mastermatto ... I'm sure there'll be some profit taking today but, following what I've heard today, and for what it's worth, I've been adding.

Alex

[mastermatto] 07/9/2016 16:01

Good Statement.

I have decided to take the surge and cut down on my holdings here.

[a1ord53] 07/9/2016 16:00

Did they talk about new asthma drug fevipiprant from competition ?
Any real threat to Vec ?

[carpadium] 07/9/2016 15:46

Thanks alex.

Did anyone ask about Kinnovata? ...in May VEC announced 'final capitalisation' of JV expected within a few weeks....rather surprised no update today.

[gbcol] 07/9/2016 15:44

Thanks Alex

[soundbuy] 07/9/2016 15:34

Cheers 4 AGM info

[fhmktg] 07/9/2016 15:05

Was that you buying in Alex?Let's see some more decent size purchases rather than robot trades.

[alex2727] 07/9/2016 15:00

Just got back from the AGM.

Very sound detailed presentation, very confident board, very satisfying.

I get the sense the GSK issue is going through the motions, it had to, but will be resolved. When it comes to matters of IP, then companies like VEC have to protect their position otherwise the big guys will just walk all over them.

Good to see Frank Condella still involved.

Much to play for going forward.

Alex

[panic investor] 07/9/2016 14:33

As they say you can't be in everything

[q2u] 07/9/2016 14:29

Phew that's better; I sold AHT on Monday and bought more of these. When both shares issued positive updates this morning it was touch and go but now things have gone much more in my favour. Long may it continue, although it rarely does for me.

[soundbuy] 07/9/2016 14:13

AGM looks to have gone well then..........

[carpadium] 07/9/2016 12:51

Should be back on track now for £2 by Christmas, the Nov released ints should clinch this target.