Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 20/2/2013 10:22

Got a reply to my email.

They are working hard to bring the strategic review to a conclusion.

Say, as expected, they can't give me any details.

My comments on the email. Firstly, it's good that they replied. The reply was only brief, but that's fair enough. I didn't ask for any detail. I wanted to express my concern at the length of time it was taking without any update, allowing uncertainty to fester, and the share price fall to continue.

It may take another week or month or who knows? They are working on it.

Simply on the basis of how long it has taken, I think they could be working on deals as opposed to a recommended offer. However, if that is correct and the right outcomes are not coming together, then perhaps they could return to considering an offer for the whole? This is just my speculation. There was nothing in the email to support my guessing.

[ohisay] 20/2/2013 09:57

Most boxes ticked - but then we all know that.

[utrecht_00] 19/2/2013 15:36

I agree its getting pathetic waiting with no info at all. Radio silence. i am sure thats whats pi$$ing off the market as well. Either way its dirt cheap at these prices.

[ed 123] 19/2/2013 15:27

Yes, but the licence should have some value to the right party. Also, I think the rig cost would be higher if someone re-booked now. As we're all (?) agreed, they need to lay off some of the risk.

If they're not to be taken over, then I'd hope they could retain perhaps 5% of Handcross for a carry on the well cost. A 15% chance of 9mmbbls net for nil cost would be a good outcome for Valiant.

Don't worry; I'm just having a moan. I will not be selling at this level, and can afford for my holding to go into my estate - eventually.

I'll post if I get a reply.

[utrecht_00] 19/2/2013 15:17

Ed, they could just walk away from handcross if thats whats bothering the market.

[ed 123] 19/2/2013 15:05

Into the 340's next week? Share price now about 100p less than when the directors said the market was undervaluing the company.

They certainly wouldn't have expected it to be in the 350's now, when they took the decision to go for a strategic review. The major shareholders (and this minor one) won't be happy.

Is the market saying, there'll be no takeover and all of next year's operating cash flow is at risk on a roll of the Handcross dice?

I wonder what figure PB came back with? I'd take his 500p (?) per share and move on.

I've sent Valiant another email. (I got no reply to the previous one and no return of my phone call.)

[ohisay] 18/2/2013 09:25

FWIW - Quite a good Brent chart from last week- I hadn't noticed it had broken its September high.
his 128$ fc would be rather a nice bonus for VPP's non hedged sales.

[hpcg] 17/2/2013 21:24

Interesting news utrecht. If you are correct then that would be well received I think.

Ohisay, I did wonder if Romania might be what is in their sights. Do you have a view on their NS assets we share? Fortunately I've only just started buying so the share price is a good thing for me rather than a bad thing, but I have to agree with you that I need to give up if I ultimately end up losing money here.

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2013 19:49

So it looks like Handcross won't get drilled this year. Stena C still churning out on N. Uist then its off to Newfoundland for at least 180 days. So if you are worried about VPP attacking it on their own anytime soon its not happening.

Still that means that all things being equal there will be a ton of cash in the bank come the end of the year.

[sludgesurfer] 17/2/2013 19:16

If they go near Handcross sole risk, I'll run for the hills. Their subsurface team have a dreadful record even in higher CoS wells in shallow water where mistakes are a lot less costly. The current Uist well which the Carron is drilling has racked up well costs equal roughly to half VPP's market cap on a single well, and they're still not finished. If they can't farm it down and go ahead with it, I for one will be off.

[sigala] 17/2/2013 18:22

I keep wondering whether to buy back in here. I sold out on the spike back when the strategic review was announced. I took the small hit on my investment because I just wasn't convinced by their business strategy.

I invested the money in ENQ which has done OK for me.

I have watched VPP get cheaper and cheaper - every time I think it has bottomed it seems to go down a bit further. On paper this must be ridiculously cheap now....

.....but there just seems no clarity over what is going on behind the scenes. Are they due to drill handcross on their own? I know they have great cash flow - but what is that rascal going to cost?

Of course if they strike the oil they think is there - then you lot are laughing.

But its a heck of a thing to go it alone on a drill like that. It feels too much like spinning the roulette wheel to me.

Somehow I just can't bring myself to reinvest - even at these silly prices....

Good luck to you all.

[bomfin] 17/2/2013 18:12

LOL,

I've not idea what they are up to. In Lundin's recent capital markets presentation there is a slide which mentions tybalt. It actually shows a prospect which extends accross from the Tybalt block into Norwegian waters. Sorry! It's not Tybalt itself. imho dyor



just search tybalt to get the page.

[sigala] 17/2/2013 18:10

I wondered whether it was a requirement of joining their BoD that you take a Trappist vow of silence?

[ammons] 17/2/2013 17:59

I am pondering a buy here but a bit troubled by the lack of RNS following the recent Antrim (Fionn relinquishment) RNS. I cannot fathom why VPP haven't said anything at all about it.

[ohisay] 17/2/2013 17:48

hpcg - Vitol are really only interested in Breagh /Romania within SLG where they know they can recoup their outlay.
Unless there is another bid I'd see their own interest as negative for SLG's N.Sea interests (other than Cladhan)
Beyond that there is no doubt in my mind that the vitol bid will flush out the real value of its portfolio so the "traction" is indirect IMV.
I've sold half my SLG for a small profit - I was adding at 53c and 47c.
I await further dvpts with interest.

I also bought more VPP on Friday - that will be my last buy - average now 407p .
If I can't make some money here then I'm obviously missing the big picture.

Bomfin - where did you pick up that info on Tybalt?

[bomfin] 16/2/2013 20:16

Timon just 10% interest I think. Lundin seem to think Tybalt is interesting suggesting it extends into Norwegian waters. Ofcourse if it's that big it's likely to be developed. imho dyor

[hpcg] 16/2/2013 14:04

Just looking through the field inventory pondering what the future may hold. A couple of thoughts / questions occurred to me

1. Belinda and Evelyn, Beverley. If Vitol take out Sterling would there be some traction here given that Vitol has money and Sterling doesn't. Or would Vitol look to offload some of these?

2. Leon prospect close to Peon. According to this Peon will come online in 2014, though I can't find anything from Statoil or Idemitsu to confirm this, so probably not the case I imagine.
There is a new exploration technology complimentary to seismic called Electro Magnetic which can confirm shallow gas. This has been used on the Peon field,

There is a drill or drop date coming up but one presumes that they could verify the gas was there first with an EM survey. The well would be cheap anyway as it barely scratches the surface. Peon is estimated at 35 billion cubic meters so a find like that would be material.

3. Is Timon the least discussed well ever? Given the price movement since the work started again have there been problems there?

[frazboy] 15/2/2013 13:42

that's more like it, a sensible 100,000 share trade just went through. down as a sell but who knows what it was. at least someone thinks it's worth buying

[hpcg] 14/2/2013 22:02

Parkmead not worth the toilet paper its shares are made off, I have no idea why there is one single trade at the current price.

[utrecht_00] 14/2/2013 18:08

ohisay- interesting. I can only hope that some of our larger shareholders are pushing our BOD to do the right thing.

[hpcg] 14/2/2013 16:37

Yes fraz, wish I'd shaved a couple more pence of now.

[frazboy] 14/2/2013 16:05

i don't think there is much of a market. judging by the share trades it looks a little rigged too. would be interested to see historical trading patterns and current trading patterns to see if current trading patterns are normal

doesn't really matter tho, value will out in the end, as long as the board doesn't come out backing a Management Buy Out at 10% premium to the current share price seems unlikely but you never know