Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 12/2/2013 21:21

I'd have to say as a very recent investor I'd take the 5.30 if offered - too much gain in too short a time.
On a more positive note for VPP as an independent company in the AEY oilbarrel presentation Stephen Greer said that the Fionn cost overrun is a projection from Causeway experience, not an actuality. He could just be being kind of course.

[bbluesky] 12/2/2013 19:57

Not me. Are we at a car boot sale? The only recent +ve is that there is a bit of volume and the overhang/bored/desperate seller will disappear eventually. It's impasse time but the greater the volume the faster reality will happen, O/b/d/ goes,and then in an efficient market (!) we should not be at car boot prices. Review etc imv is a game of chess going on - and likewise not always the fastest of games. Playing time for Handcross - the game changer?

[ed 123] 12/2/2013 19:02

With thanks to wbodger for the link, Faroe Petroleum is mentioned as a possible bidder for Valiant('s producing assets).



Faroe is said to have access to $250 million that could be used for purchases. That would equate to about £3.80 per Valiant share. If they borrow another $100 million (using Valiant's production for backing), then they could pay around £5.30 per Valiant share - which might be enough - and would be enough for me!

[frazboy] 12/2/2013 10:33

a little bit more info, will revise my numbers in 2294 later, but i suspect no one is expecting 4500 bopd from Fionn, we'll settle for 3,000 bopd. $22m is probably an also an understatement of the real cost (which are known to have over-run)

[frazboy] 12/2/2013 10:29

thanks CT.

the fact that they were carried for Fionn had nothing to do with their decision? my understanding of the arrangement was that on first oil from Fionn they had to pay Valiant the 35% (or whatever the cut was) of the development costs ($35m?) as Valiant had carried them for all the Capex.

With a Fionn offtake rate of 3000 bopd, it would have taken them a year to recover that cash all being well. they have limited capital and it made no sense for them to do that, better, particularly in light of the disappointing but "rock solid steady" production on Causeway, to let Valiant bat on on their own.

[frazboy] 11/2/2013 16:57

agree ohisay, I think they'll stop if costs start to become excessive (>$60m?) but the temptation must always be to finish the job

let's just hope it goes well

[frazboy] 11/2/2013 12:07

Ed, agree with your cost concerns with respect to Handcross

I know that North Uist is in similar water depths but i don't know the planned TD. do you know?

Edit: I think the depths will be similar to the BP North Uist well

[ed 123] 11/2/2013 11:11

$40 or $50 million for drilling Handcross on paper. However, the North Uist well has been drilling for (I think) about 5 times as long as was planned.

If the same were to happen with Handcross the cost could go from $50 million to $250 million. And the return? .... The return would be like the roll of a die, a five in six chance of failure.

Faroe's market cap is about double that of Valiant, yet Faroe is in North Uist for only a 6.25% interest, and partially carried at that. A fully exposed 90% interest in Handcross would be risky for Valiant.

Anyway, that's just my chatter.

Meanwhile, still no email or phone call from Valiant, and the usual trading pattern in the shares can be seen. There's some buying interest evident this morning, but someone is (kindly!) making a steady supply of shares available at 370p, so the price is not rising.

Groundhog day ...... becomes Groundhog week ...... becomes Groundhog month.

[ohisay] 11/2/2013 06:09

Last September presentation says gross cost of 40m$ for Handcross.
I'd prefer a farm down of course but I'm pleased they're drilling anyway for gross 160m boe.prospect .
Upside is an easy 5 bagger if successful.
Its the small North sea exploratory stuff I don't like to see them drilling (but they can drill as much as they like in Norway IMV given the tax regime.)

[utrecht_00] 08/2/2013 22:32

if it costs $50 million, VPP can afford that. I can't see a farm down now.

[ed 123] 08/2/2013 21:47

Stena Carron has been drilling North Uist for the past 10 months. Faroe say that due to technical difficulties there has been "considerable delay".

I don't know who was to follow BP's use of the Stena Carron at North Uist.

Has someone dropped out, leaving Handcross to still start in Q1 2013?

I don't expect any comment from Valiant. The normal operational update for Dec/Jan didn't happen. Handcross is likely to be in the mixing pot of the strategic review.

[utrecht_00] 08/2/2013 20:40

doesn't look like there are any overruns so drilling still on for q1.

[ed 123] 08/2/2013 19:02

They've been trying to farm down Handcross for a long time. Commitment to drill was (aiui) a condition of the licence award. Valiant didn't get a farm-in partner and were in danger of losing the licence. They needed and got a six month extension to fulfill this commitment. It was either commit to drill or give back the block. Valiant chose to commit.

Chevron are subletting Stena Carron to the present users. We can only speculate as to the contract details between Valiant and Chevron, and perhaps not much point in doing that? Anyway, with overruns by others, could Valiant (be happy to?) get bounced out of the queue? How would DECC then react?

An obvious partner, or acquirer of the licence would appear to be Chevron themselves. Maybe the strategic review will say something about this? (... if no takeover is recommended.)

Anyone got a good idea of the gross cost of drilling Handcross? Fwiw, I'm thinking $500k/day x 100 days = $50 million. Perhaps a 1 in 6 chance of commercial find? (A North Uist situation could see Valiant in some difficulty , ultimately, in all likelihood, for no gain - a partner with deep pockets is needed.)

[utrecht_00] 08/2/2013 17:43

if they are hoping to farm down they better get on with it as they were supposed to begin drilling this quarter last anyone heard. Obviously that may slip.

[pyemckay] 08/2/2013 16:20

Hope no bid for antrim,
would love a farm down for handcross. that would see a big rise in share price. its a worry if we take this on our own.
what info do we have on handcross, what infrastructure is near by?

[utrecht_00] 08/2/2013 09:15

Ok, news from Oilbarrel seems to be that AEY want to fund fyne themselves which they think will cost them circa $180 million.

I assume then that no nasties with fionn just could not afford to pay for both and going for it on fyne.

PS my data feeds bust this am as VPP share price is showing as up....

[ed 123] 08/2/2013 08:57

A bit of unimportant news while we're waiting ...

Trap Oil's recent analysis of Orchid suggests most likely case of about 10 mmbbls recoverable, compared to Valiant's 4-7 mmbbls estimate on 6 September 2012.

Trap say an appraisal well is needed but they won't do it at their present 60% interest. (Hmmm ... maybe not that confident, then?) Trap Oil's approach to a known discovery makes Valiant look like a foolish gambler with its 90% of Handcross and a rig contracted.

No return of my phone call, but had a message that they may (without promise) phone me next week.

Every day is a day closer to the result. No strong feeling about the outcome, nor the date for any release. All I can say is that, based on what we've been told, it looks lowly priced in the market (372p) imo.