Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[utrecht_00] 13/3/2013 15:44

eipgam- I was hoping for a counter but time is running out and fast. I think the takeover docs are out now so if anyone wants to make a bid it will have to be in the next few days. Not sure I want to be an IAE shareholder either. Their stock won't rise so we are under their offer price.

[eipgam] 13/3/2013 15:25

Hmm... I paid £7 for mine... I knew I can't win them all, but what to do here, I wonder?

I was kinda hoping for a better offer from somewhere, but seeing as they have been looking for a buyer for so long, it seems unlikely that htey will find another.... and do I want to be an IAE shareholder, I don't know.

[utrecht_00] 13/3/2013 14:17

well doesn't look like a counter bid is coming. Seems like this board has died in the meantime as well. Wonder what PB's next move will be after all this.

[utrecht_00] 11/3/2013 13:43

hpcg- thanks, makes sense.

[hpcg] 11/3/2013 12:39

utrecht - there is some discussion on the IAE pages. My analysis is that this a way for them to sell down their IAE shares without directly selling IAE. They would be unlikely to get full wack unloading their percentage on IAE but with VPP arbitragers will keep the share price to within a couple of percent. Their short will cover the cash and their existing IAE shares for the share portion. I not calculated how complete this is.

I really can't see there being a bid for IAE (nor a counter bid for VPP). I think they are waving the white flag and are getting out of what for them was a temporary position.

I could be proven wrong by future events of course, and may not be correct in the first place, but I think this explanation is rational.

[utrecht_00] 11/3/2013 11:21

why would Anthion asset management take out an 800k short on VPP. They are in partnership with JEC in trying to get IAE to sell. If there was a bid for IAE that would collapse the VPP bid and the share price would plummet back?

[ed 123] 08/3/2013 09:09

Valiant stepped up a couple of pence. Responding to 85,000 Ithaca shares bought by someone at 124p, (perhaps?).

IMO, market sentiment is gradually improving towards Ithaca's deal to buy Valiant.

[ed 123] 08/3/2013 08:36

Today I think we're waiting for Canada to confirm (or not) the late jump in Ithaca's share price. Closed at C$2.00, equivalent to 129p. However, low volume, late jump.

The Canadian action could just be someone wanting uk strength, into which they can sell.

At 2:30pm today we should begin to know.

[utrecht_00] 08/3/2013 08:25

I see we still have games being played with the share price here again. IAE up 2.5% and vpp down. Being held so the offer still looks good?

[utrecht_00] 08/3/2013 08:13

good news, but a little late I think. If this was Handcross it would have been helpful.

[mcdougall1] 08/3/2013 07:28

Valiant Petroleum plc

PRESS RELEASE

8 March 2013



Isabella Farm Out

Valiant Petroleum plc is pleased to announce its wholly owned subsidiary Valiant Causeway Limited ("Valiant") has signed a farm-out agreement with Maersk Oil North Sea UK Limited ("Maersk Oil UK") with regard to its Isabella prospect located in the UK Central North Sea Blocks 30/6b, 30/11a & 30/12d (P1820). Under the terms of the agreement, Valiant's well costs will be partially carried by Maersk Oil UK subject to a cap on the promoted costs. Maersk Oil UK will also refund to Valiant certain historic costs associated with the licence at its working interest. Following completion, Valiant's stake will reduce to 20% from its current 50% interest. The transaction remains subject to DECC consent.

Isabella is a gas condensate prospect located on one of the largest undrilled fault blocks in the UK Central North Sea with prospectivity across multiple geological horizons.

Following completion of the transaction, the P1820 partners will be Apache North Sea Limited (50%, operator), Maersk Oil North Sea Limited (30%) and Valiant Causeway Limited (20%).

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 19:29

wonder if we will get another Friday bid tomorrow am from PB?

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 19:13

Ed- many thanks for that.

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 15:56

Ithaca has an interest in a cluster of discoveries around Stella. See link.



It's having to borrow heavily plus use its own cash flow to fund its share of development. Market will apply a risk factor till it comes into production (think back to Athena and Causeway!).

If the Stella development goes well, 200p(?) share price. If it goes badly .......... I'd rather not!

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 15:46

Ed, whats the deal with stella? Is it a find that IAE have that they are bringing on line and if so how many bopd do they expect? I know all about Athena from my holding in LHD....

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 15:39

Agree, the market has risen a lot, so less attractive prices out there and more risk of falls.

I think Ithaca will be vulnerable (assuming its shareprice remains around this level (120p)) until they get Stella on production. Ithaca has been as high as 200p about a year ago, and has rebuffed bid interest. Also, one of its main shareholders (JEC) would like Ithaca to sell itself.

A bid for Ithaca later this year wouldn't surprise me.

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 15:27

Yep, plan to hold more cash, I'd sunk a chunk into here, averaging down to my current 430p level. So, I will be happy to get that lot back as this was my biggest holding and I'll be waiting to see what bargains there are over the summer also. I am in GPX, BLVN and LHD so I may put some of it into those but mainly I'll wait and see what happens. I don't know if I will hold the IAE stock I get from the deal if it goes through, I may sell (hopefully on any rise and be done with it). I suppose theres a chance IAE may get bought out so there may be merit in holding. I don't much like the look of anything else out there right now to be honest.

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 15:11

I've already sold about 30% of them. Did that on Monday due to Cormorant, to reduce my exposure, having bought a lot as they went down. I put some into Ithaca, guessing if Cormorant wasn't fixed in time, then Ithaca would rise.

Obviously paid a price for doing that selling, now that Cormorant is going back on line. I view that 'price' as my insurance premium. No problem.

Holding some cash for private investment, mostly loan notes, to give income.

Will keep more cash on hand now. There may be a profit taking phase for the wider market over the summer, and I want to take advantage if that should happen.

Any thoughts for your VPP money?

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 14:59

the end to a depressing tale. Where you putting the cash from VPP Ed?

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 14:55

PB perhaps needs to make a move within the next 7 days. Ithaca's documents and vote form could be in the hands of Valiant holders on Wednesday next week. If it goes smoothly for Ithaca, Valiant holders should get their cash before the end of April. As you say, not long to wait.

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 14:41

He must have been working on a bid since he stepped down, so I guess now he has 6 weeks to pull the trigger or start something else.

I'll hold on in here till the end. Not long either way.

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 14:36

No, not expecting another bid, but there's always a slim chance. PB was outside the Board loop, so might not have known anything about the recommended offer until it was announced. It gives him a target, if he's still in the game. Experience and contacts-wise, he should be able to gather support. However capital markets are difficult atm, Brent crude has softened recently and there's the second shutdown at Cormorant platform. These factors will drain the confidence of PB's backers. PB may lose his baby, at around 470p, after floating it at 750p in 2008. Not a good result for him. Even so, he gets about £13 million in cash and Ithaca shares.