Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[sludgesurfer] 01/3/2013 20:38

well....I should make wild predictions of impending doom more often the night before a take over.
Whilst not jumping for joy, like others, I'm pleased to get out with my shirt intact, or at least only slightly torn. Not that it matters (athough as an IAE holder for 7 years it does to me) but those who corrected me on the water injection timing were quite correct but on the ESP's I remain concerned over the brief period between IP and their planned turn on.

When Causeway was first muted, I thought it was a natural flow, water flood development with ESPs only entering the fray later - again correct me if I'm wrong on this.

Subsea ESPs are a menace. If you get 3 years your doing well (at least in my experience) and you rarely get the design right first time, whether it's higher than expected GORs, sand, or pump issues that get you. The other factor is that often you don't know what's wrong until you pull the pump & with the lead time on purchase of the pumps, your second completion is bought and paid for by the time you pull the dud, meaning an operator (even with significant artificial lift experience) doesn't apply all their learnings until the 3rd completion. To me, the economics of Causeway don't allow multiple workovers, especially with such a tight NS rig market.

Thanks to all who've made this board a good 'un. For what it's worth I'll continue to hold...given the length of this process, I don't think there's queue of CEOs with chequebooks outside the Valiant offices but you never know....

[utrecht_00] 01/3/2013 19:41

look at the way this share was walked down and held down. FSA should investigate. Note beginning of Feb when the deal was probably being finalised was when they dropped it to 350p and held it there so 475p would look acceptable. I hope a counter bid comes in. The way this has been conducted is nonsense.

[hpcg] 01/3/2013 16:42

Yes you are correct, I also have alerts set up for both and did only get the alert from IAE emailed now I look.

[mcdougall1] 01/3/2013 16:11

hpcg - I think the 7:02 RNS came from Ithaca and has just been linked to VPP. I have an email notification for news alerts set up for both companies, but only received details on the offer via IAE.

[hpcg] 01/3/2013 15:10

laneken??? RNS from Valiant was at 7:02 this morning. Same time as Ithaca and same text.

[utrecht_00] 01/3/2013 14:53

they never do say much. Maybe counter bid coming. Would not surprise me, I doubt they will get this over the line at a 4.75p deal.

[lanaken] 01/3/2013 14:29

Well they've put something up on their website but no RNS.

Can't help wondering why they seem so reticent.

Any views?

repo

[privateinvestor001] 01/3/2013 13:44

Pity, been watching and researching this for the last few weeks, with a view to taking a reasonable position. (just a little to late)

Well done those that held their nerve....

GL

Dav.

[utrecht_00] 01/3/2013 13:14

IAE recovering and VPP is up a little. Maybe we get to a 5 quid effective deal if IAE continues to rise.

[ohisay] 01/3/2013 13:04

Wonder what they'll do now.?

[ohisay] 01/3/2013 12:31

Looks like IAE holders have twigged its a good deal for them but of course Cannucks invariably have their own ideas .At least they'll have had enough time to think about it when the market opens.
BTW I noticed the other day that when Westhouse put out that "440p target/no bid " back in December they'd got a risked NAV pre Timon of 494p .
Lop off a sliver for Timon - say 10% risked - and thats 490p which is probably close to a maximum possible in this market.

[utrecht_00] 01/3/2013 12:00

he's probably fielding calls right now from disgruntled II's.

[hpcg] 01/3/2013 11:24

Interesting dynamic for PB. He has a hurdle price but if he puts an offer in then the IAE share price would probably go back up, making the implicit value of the IAE bid higher. So he would need to at least beat the original nominal value IMO. Whether he can get that together remains to be seen - though given his own holding he doesn't need to secure 100% of the funding.

[utrecht_00] 01/3/2013 11:14

at the moment with the share price at 440p, it value Itahca shares at 1 pound, when they are 115p in the market. An arbitrage opp for IAE holders or a chance to buy more VPP and make some more money assuming that the IAE share price doesn't collapase under a pound and that a deal goes through which is likely?

Ohisay- agreed I think PB could counter. A 500p all cash deal would seal it.

[ohisay] 01/3/2013 10:38

The first thing I noticed this morning was that PB hasn't given his support to the offer .If anyone can come up with something better he can - given his background - and he started the company after all.



"Immediately prior to founding the Company in 2004, Peter spent five years as a Director on the oil & gas team at The Royal Bank of Scotland with specific responsibility for North Sea structured finance and was involved in several hundred million pounds of debt, mezzanine and equity financings to independent oil and gas companies."

If there is much more weakness in the IAE price it really wouldnt surprise me if he chips in.I don't think its an accident that VPP didnt put out an RNS today .
Fat lady still singing here IMV.

[peteh4] 01/3/2013 10:38

XEL another north sea oil company starting to take off.

[p o n a] 01/3/2013 10:21

$11.1/bbl

page 4

[p o n a] 01/3/2013 10:19

ooops sorry.. thanks for the lanaken... i hurriedly read this :


"Other potential offerors can still nonetheless announce competing offers for Valiant.

-- The Acquisition is anticipated to result in:
the establishment of Ithaca as a leading mid cap North Sea oil and gas operator, with 2P reserves of approximately 74MMboe(1), "



and interpreted it incorrectly.

[ed 123] 01/3/2013 10:16

Yes, it does look a bargain.

Note that of the 41% supporting the bid, 35% have not made any binding commitment.

There's definitely room for a counter bid.

Come on PB, if you want it!

[p o n a] 01/3/2013 10:16

just checked the balance sheet at the interim stage

they had $105m of loans
and $93m of provisions

which imply $10/b for VPP's reserves.

[lanaken] 01/3/2013 10:14

PONA your numbers are way out;-)

Get some new batteries for your calculator.

VPP got decent money for their reserves and near term production but gave away the benefit of the tax losses and production further out. Their dodgy exploration programme has been lost in the process. Will the luck change there?


repo