Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[utrecht_00] 14/2/2013 15:52

no problem, run the company well, don't waste funds, build up the cash pile and return to shareholders.

[pyemckay] 14/2/2013 15:47

market says no deal.

[utrecht_00] 14/2/2013 15:34

146 million market cap. What a nonsense.

[frazboy] 14/2/2013 14:37

drip back on, i'm sure your order will have been fulfilled

[hpcg] 14/2/2013 13:21

I put in a miniscule limit order to pick up one of those drip drips. If they can't fill that then there really isn't anything available at that level (359 if any kind market makers are looking in).

[frazboy] 14/2/2013 13:06

the drip drip drip appears to have stopped, for the time being at least

[ed 123] 14/2/2013 12:01

frazboy.

Trade types are here ...



Also, 'O' trades are done through a retail service provider, whereas 'A' trades are done directly through the market order book.

[ed 123] 14/2/2013 10:58

Agree, pyemckay, market is saying the indicative bids were rejected. Some change in strategy is likely to be announced - to appease the big shareholders.

If they announce a new focus on growing a cashpile, move to a full listing and pay a dividend, they will get a re-rating, as more institutions become (propective) buyers.

Looking at where they are now, a 50% uplift in the share price would be very possible.

I should have emailed them this advice 5 months ago. It would have saved them a lot work.

.............. Ah! but I forgot ........... they ignore their small shareholders.

[utrecht_00] 14/2/2013 09:45

if no bid, this thing will rerate upwards over the course of this year with the cash its throwing off. Who knows maybe Handcross may provide some excitement.

[philo124] 14/2/2013 08:10

What a Dog.

[pyemckay] 14/2/2013 06:06

institutions wont accept £4. dont be silly!

it looks like nothing will happen with VPP. thats what the markets saying.

hope im wrong.

[frazboy] 13/2/2013 21:26

i'm interested

and more to the point if they manage to pull off a buy out at less than £4 then no aim oiler is safe from the fickle hand of investment fashion.

they would all be uninvestable

[pyemckay] 13/2/2013 19:39

no ones interested in vpp. thats why PB is looking at a buyout.

[utrecht_00] 13/2/2013 17:30

Ed- I doubt that the BOD would be able to recommend nor get the major institutions to accept anything less than 550p

[frazboy] 13/2/2013 17:15

Press release on the Antrim site:

"Antrim Energy, an exploration and production company with interests offshore in the UK North Sea, Ireland and Tanzania today announced that Mr. Doug Olson has provided notice of his retirement from the position of Chief Financial Officer
of Antrim effective March 31, 2013. The Company's management and Board of Directors express their appreciation to Mr. Olson for his five years' service to the Company and especially for his significant contribution to Antrim's recently
completed financial arrangement with Credit Suisse (as announced January 23, 2013).

Antrim is pleased to announce that Mr. Anthony Potter will rejoin the Company as Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Potter brings over 26 years of experience with public international oil and gas exploration and development companies. Mr.
Potter has provided strategic planning, finance, tax and risk management advice in senior management roles in the private and public oil and gas sectors, including extensive involvement in Canadian and international operations in the
United Kingdom. Mr. Potter is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Alberta."

Did he fall or was he pushed?

[ed 123] 13/2/2013 16:51

If it goes much lower, then a bid at 525p could look very generous on a 'premium to last closing price' basis.

Already, a bid of 525p in the morning would show up as a 45% premium.

Today it closed at 361p, the day's low point. Into the 350's tomorrow?

But, why would anyone sell now at 361p, when a buyout at a good premium could be announced?

Thinking aloud .... maybe I've got the answer .... Valiant to announce a big, deeply discounted rights issue and use the cash to pay 20p per share for Parkmead.

[utrecht_00] 13/2/2013 14:37

thanks for that article a great read and strengthens the resolve. I think the market has it all wrong with VPP and I've out my money where my mouth is. I cannot think that a bid at 525p will succeed when it was 450p at the time of the announcement of the review.

[frazboy] 13/2/2013 13:58

thanks, hadn't see that article. sometimes you have to stand back and say to hell with the market, it'll correct itself given enough time, it may even become irrationally exuberant. A quote from Buffet below

"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right."

i was actually hoping that the reason they didn't get back to Ed was because something is being nurtured and they were planning on making an announcement. it is after all all 5 months since the strategic review started.

i think i'll add some more, but i'll be breaking my own rules about how much i invest in a single share. we shall see

[ohisay] 13/2/2013 13:37

Fraz there is absolutely no comparison - he wouldn't even think about it.
I was trying to say that the market gets things hopelessly wrong sometimes.

Hub said as much last year- if I can find the comment.

Here it is - last para of his article.

[frazboy] 13/2/2013 13:03

i hope ohisay he would prefer to own Valiant, lots of cash flow coming through to assist with deal making, but maybe he likes Parkmeads reserves in the ground and not a lot of cashflow

[ohisay] 13/2/2013 12:49

Market now thinks this is worth just about the same as Parkmead.
I bet I know - given a choice - which one Tom Cross would prefer to own.

[utrecht_00] 13/2/2013 10:52

frazboy thanks for that. Don't forget we have PB in the potting shed cobbling together a deal.

When the announcement of the strategic review came the stock was at 450p. Indicative offers probably came in around 550p and were rejected. PB thought he could do better and still make a big profit. Hence why I think any offer would have to be well north of 550p.

[frazboy] 13/2/2013 10:32

i've just created an updated Production Profile

The key inputs were:

Fionn: 3000 bopd on production in November 2013
Causway: slow decline from current rate (with T/O matched to Stephen Greer's comments at the oil barrel conference where he stated first year T/O to Antrim of $50-$60m (i.e. $90-$118m to Valiant))
Don SW: 44% Year on year decline (no further infill) - using October 2012 (DECC data) rate as December 2012 rate
West Don: 44% Year on year decline (no further infill) - using October 2012 (DECC data) rate as December 2012 rate

This gives us an average rate of 9,000 bopd for 2013. I suspect this is at the very bottom end of expectations as those YOY declines for the Don fields are very aggressive and assume no further action.

I think a more realistic range is 10,000 - 11,000 bopd

Running with 10,000 bopd gives T/O of: $420m

Let's just remind ourselves of the Market Cap: $235M

I accept that we need either future exploration success or farm-ins to discovered assets but still...