Ukrproduct Share Discussion Threads

[one for the money] 15/9/2005 08:38

Jonwig

Thanks for keeping us updated - hadn't seen the results flagged yet.
All looks good for the future of the investment.

Cheers
john

[jonwig] 15/9/2005 07:32

Interim results just out (link in header, above).

The pace of expansion seems to be accelerating (though I've no half-year numbers to compare with). Doubling up eps of 2.8p gives a full year P/E just over 10, adding second half growth suggests single figures. Will do some crunching later, if I've time.

And an interim dividend of 0.36p. Suggests a year's total around 1p and yield of nearly 2%: not a bad base from which to grow dividends. If they grow as fast as earnings, that's 30% year-on-year!

Some of the statements raise a smile: their hard cheese is called 'cheddar' (why not?) and this:

...vacuum-packed processed cheeses are due to arrive on the shelves of the country's retail outlets shortly. We have broadened the product range to include several new taste varieties including paprika, crab and bacon.

Takes me back 50 years when this was a taste highlight for me! Seriously, though, the Ukrainians eat relatively little cheese (more bread and dripping) and UKR seem to have this growing market stitched up.

So first impressions very good, and I hope the market is suitably impressed.

[one for the money] 11/9/2005 16:29

thanks, Jonwig

I'm still keeping the faith!

Cheers
john

[jonwig] 09/9/2005 17:07

The Ukraine has had a bad press lately, with internal arguments within the government and sackings reported today.

But, as this article shows, the atmosphere is much more business friendly than in the pre-Orange Revolution years:

Ukrainians say they feel most gloomy about their personal economic situation. Rising food and utility fees, higher prices at the gas pumps, and the government's decision to strengthen the hryvna against the dollar ate away much of the salary and pension increases.
...
For all the mounting disappointment, however, Ukrainians still like Yushchenko significantly more than Kuchma, whose approval ratings were down around 10 percent. Yushchenko's vary, but most polls find that more than 50 percent of Ukrainians approve of at least some of the new president's moves -- close to the 52 percent who voted him into office.

"I can definitely tell you that before Yushchenko took the presidency, I wouldn't even consider listing (my company) in Ukraine. There was no light in the tunnel -- now, at least, there is light," said Sergey Evlanchik, CEO and owner of the dairy company Ukrproduct.

Full article:

[jonwig] 09/9/2005 12:31

IC has a brief write-up (a bit late) including:

"No supermarkets squeezing margins is a big plus. Emerging market buy".

"Company broker WH Ireland expects this year's sales and profits to be £10m and £1m higher, respectively."

I couldn't find any broker forecasts myself.
The point about no Tescos in the Ukraine is a good one!

[jonwig] 22/8/2005 12:11

I've just been pottering around the website ahead of the results on 15/09.
They are pretty up-to-date with newsflow about production, etc.
Last entry is 15/08.
Go to the website (link above) and clock "News & Events".

[one for the money] 30/6/2005 13:48

Thanks, Jonwig

Not many shares in free circulation then! It's no wonder a few trades move it.

Cheers
john

[jonwig] 30/6/2005 10:24

I've just got the annual report.
If you're interested, go to the website (link above) and post a request - they e-mail you a pdf pretty quickly.
Haven't read much yet, but the list of major holders is interesting:

Crensel Finance Limited 15,000,000 36.4
Densim Group Management SA 15,000,000 36.4
Fidelity European Smaller Companies Fund 3,300,000 8.0
East Capital Osteuropafond 900,000 2.2
Moore Global Fixed Income Fund 837,000 2.0
Lehman Brothers International (Europe) 800,000 1.9
Chase Nominees 727,500 1.8
East Capital Rysslandsfond 600,000 1.5
Goldman Sachs Securities 500,000 1.2
Moore Macro Fund LP Main Equities 418,000 1.0

So the two top holdings aren't duplicated, as I thought they were from the holdings RNS earlier.
That's 92.4% of the shares, so there's certainly no lack of institutional support, which is often a problem for AIM companies.

[jonwig] 29/6/2005 08:15

AGM statement positive: continuing progress:

Speaking at Ukrproduct's first Annual General Meeting as an AIM listed company,
Jack Rowell, Non-Executive Chairman of Ukrproduct Group Ltd made the following
comments:

"During 2004, the Group successfully achieved the challenging targets set out by
the Board and remains one of the most profitable and dynamic food businesses in
Ukraine. Net sales increased by 54% to #27 million, accompanied by improved
profit margins resulting in a 42% increase to profits before tax of #1.7
million. Excellent progress has been made in our core business segments, with
estimated further increases of 10 and 6 percentage points respectively to our
leading market shares in the Ukrainian processed cheese and packaged butter
markets.

"Since the start of the current year trading has been in line with expectations,
with further progress in all business segments. Our proven business model,
together with our success in a dynamically evolving environment, supports our
confidence that we will be able to improve our performance yet further in 2005,
for the long-term benefit of our shareholders."

[jonwig] 03/6/2005 14:19

RNS (link above) re directorate change is probably of no consequence, maybe.

But confirmation of AGM date 29 June is a useful reminder.

John

[jonwig] 25/5/2005 09:35

Hi, quickmind.

So was I when I saw these first.
But I think we can assume that AKS is the beneficial owner, via his 100% ownership of DGM, which wholly owns CF, which is the registered owner of the 15m shs.
Or some permutation of this.

Regards,
John

[quickmind] 25/5/2005 09:26

Alexander Konstantinovich Slipchuck (dup), 15,000,000, 36.39%
Densim Group Mgmt SA (dup), 15,000,000, 36.39%
Crensel Finance Ltd (dup), 15,000,000, 36.39%

Alexander Konstantinovich Slipchuck is a director.
Other directors' holding:

Jack Rowell 18,690 0.045%
David Michael Lattimore 9,345 0.023%
David Paul Williams 9,345 0.023%

I'm confused; the numbers don't add up!

[jonwig] 24/5/2005 18:41

Hi John.

It may be in the prospectus, which I haven't seen -anyway it's only available for one month after float.

Good to see a few new holders/watchers coming along here!

Regards,
John

[one for the money] 24/5/2005 18:29

Jonwig

I'm sure Fidelity Investments is a major shareholder but I suppoase it may not be at the notifiable level - I don't know the details. However I'm happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

There aren't many shares floating around and they are on a forward PE of 10

Good,but small buys today (including my 4k)

Cheers
john

[one for the money] 24/5/2005 08:38

Just bought into this.

IMHO there is a lot of potential here though some risk. I thought it was time to get in because the local politics are now more stable and I am more at ease with Fidelity a major investor.

Cheers
John

[petemorr] 23/5/2005 16:22

Thanks Jonwig - thats GREAT! :)

[jonwig] 23/5/2005 11:23

Thanks Simon.
Agreed about the risks. But hence my hope for the rewards!
John

[simon gordon] 23/5/2005 10:50

Jon - I had a look at the history of trades since the flotation and my conclusions are that UKR is very illiquid and no heavy buying has commenced.

The management team look solid and the twin track of dairy and distribution looks promising. Maybe in the future they will spin out distribution or more likely the whole company will be taken over by a hungry multi-national.

UKR is not cheap in say comparision to PFD which is on a forward P/E of 11 and yield of 4.5%.

I suppose you pay extra for the potential but then again the risk is much higher - political and economic.

All in all UKR is very interesting and I will be monitoring your thread - cheers!

[jonwig] 23/5/2005 09:01

Bought small this morning.
Broker forecast, W H Ireland 'ADD' dated 17/05/2005:

2005 2006
Pretax £m 2.70 3.90
Eps p 4.80 7.80

The 2005 eps figure seems strange: same as 2004 actual.

[jonwig] 22/5/2005 12:18

Interesting looking at their figures, operating margin of 16.2% (13.6% last year) which is very high for the sector.

If they can stay low cost but penetrate outside markets more (part of the plan) this will improve still more.

The logo is a back view of a cow: I didn't realise it for a long time, but one on the website (behind the CEO) is clearer. Obvious once you spot that.

After the Eurovision Song Contest in Kiev, maybe they'll get Terry Wogan to front an ad campaign for them - yet more cheese!

[simon gordon] 21/5/2005 18:14

Thank you.

[jonwig] 21/5/2005 16:51

Hi, I rather like this company, and agree a thread should have charts, news, etc.

I hope you don't mind me starting a new thread:



Thanks
John

[jonwig] 21/5/2005 16:48

The company's website is interesting and informative:



Here is a summary of what they have to say about themselves:

- We are one of the youngest, most profitable and fastest-growing Ukraine-based FMCG companies producing cheese, butter and skimmed milk powder.
- We are the first Ukrainian company to list on the London Stock Exchange.
- Our mission is to supply branded quality food products at affordable prices to customers in Ukraine and abroad.
- We are international in outlook, competitive in attitude, and considerate in teamwork.

There is considerable potential here for a strong company in a newly developing economy, low-cost supply to the EU, eventual membership of the EU.
~~~~~~~~
CALENDAR:

29 June 2005: AGM
15 Sept 2005: Interim results to 30 June
21 Sept, 28 Oct 2005: Int div 0.36p xd/pay
25 April 2006 Full Yr results
~~~~~~~~