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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukrproduct Group Limited | UKR | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 2.25 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| FOOD PRODUCERS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 30/6/2020 06:55 by mirako Encouraging results and a better outlook than might have been expected. Clearly the business has been so cash-starved for so long that it's going to take a while to repair the balance sheet.The economy is still going in roughly the right direction. The land sales law should be good for UKR but the crucial bit doesn't take effect until 2024. The new IMF swap line is also good and there's political stability at least for now. Book value is around 7-8p a share. That seems like the best metric until there's some prospect of generating free cash flow. |
Posted at 30/4/2014 19:59 by mirako One thing I never understand in these UKR reports is how they talk about hard cheese exports to Russia as if it's something they can't do themselves.Anyway, at the margin it's an encouraging report, because the outlook statement is fairly upbeat. It's very hard to tell until we see some post-upheaval financials. |
Posted at 10/3/2014 07:06 by skinny TRADING UPDATEKyiv, Ukraine - March 10, 2014 - Ukrproduct Group Limited ("Ukrproduct" or the "Group") (AIM: UKR), one of the leading Ukrainian producers and distributors of branded dairy foods and beverages (kvass), today announces the following trading update. The unstable political and economic situation, as to be expected, is having an adverse effect on businesses throughout Ukraine including Ukrproduct Group. The Company revenues in hryvna year-to-date have been below expectations as consumer confidence has fallen, a range of open markets servicing mass and mid-market have closed and a number of agents in other sales channels have withdrawn from the market not least for the reason of bad debt risk. Overall, sales have also been adversely affected as higher unit costs due to a currency devaluation of the hryvna and sustained high raw milk prices has necessitated the consumer price increases. As a result, key categories have experienced lower sales levels. The sales volumes of processed cheese in January-February decreased year-on-year but showed a slight increase in hryvna terms. Sales of packaged butter dropped but in hryvna terms the decrease was less significant than in tonnage. At the same time hryvna devaluation is having a positive influence on the export revenues thus Ukrproduct will aim to grow its export oriented sales. On the other hand the sizable increase in US Dollar exchange rate will significantly decrease the consolidated results of the Company after the translation into the presentation currency of GBP Sterling. The banking confidence in Ukraine has also fallen and this is limiting credit facilities. Ukrproduct Group is managing the situation and currently has sufficient support of its banks. Ukrproduct also continues its cooperation with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in addressing the current challenges. In summary, the current environment in Ukraine has led to performance below expectations year-to-date. In the context of the general political and economic environment Ukrproduct Group has adjusted its business model. The financial outcomes of such model are planned to allow Ukrproduct to carry through the current environment as far as it can be assessed successfully. |
Posted at 06/3/2014 17:13 by mirako At a crude estimation, the hit to NAV from the currency devaluation is about £5m, putting the NAV ex-intangibles at £13m or so. What's needed is confidence UKR can make operating profits in the foreseeable future and has the intention of using them for the benefit of shareholders. |
Posted at 06/3/2014 12:25 by aleman UKR market cap now down to £3.1m versus net current assets of £5.1m and NAV ex-intangibles of £18m. That's a big discount which seems to assume the company only has a small chance of surviving Ukraine's troubles. The 5 manufacturing assets (plus one under construction) are in Western Ukraine. There are 5 of the 9 distribution assets in the East but none in Crimea. They are held through subsidiaries which could perhaps be sold off piecemeal if necessary. |
Posted at 05/3/2014 17:09 by mirako @AlemanI think the FX rate is very unlikely to rebound: it was extremely overvalued before and the refusal to devalue was one reason the IMF wouldn't lend. In the long-run, a more competitive exchange rate is good news for an exporter like UKR, but in the short-run it's a nasty financial shock. |
Posted at 04/3/2014 19:22 by valhamos From what I was able to see of the TW's comments (full article was members only), I agree. TW is spectacularly wrong on many of his comments, he's just not worth paying any notice.It is not as if Russia hasn't already caused UKR problems over the years with its erratic trade policies. Still too early to call, but like you it's not hard to imagine scenarios where UKR may actually benefit longer term from the current crisis. |
Posted at 22/1/2014 22:59 by mirako It seems like the stock is finally showing some sensitivity to the political news from Ukraine.Assuming there is no political change then most likely the currency stays broadly stable, at least until next year's elections, but it's hard to see the economy doing much. If there were political change then it probably means a big currency devaluation. That would hit the UKR balance sheet in sterling terms, most likely trigger a recession in Ukraine, but leave the potential for better export performance and domestic growth if UKR got through it. The EBRD loan in euros is a nasty liability in this scenario. Either way, I continue to watch with interest, but don't like the risk/reward for now. |
Posted at 20/1/2014 07:25 by skinny Kyiv, Ukraine - 20 January 2014 - Ukrproduct Group Limited ("Ukrproduct" or the "Group") (AIM: UKR), one of the leading Ukrainian producers and distributors of branded dairy foods and beverages, today announces that pursuant to the resolution of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market dated January 14th, 2014 the Company's shares have been approved to be admitted to trading on the Ukrainian stock market.It is expected that 581,400 ordinary shares of 10 pence each will be admitted to trading on the Ukrainian Stock Market and the dealings are expected to commence shortly. No new ordinary shares have been issued and accordingly the total number of shares in issue remains unchanged. The Directors believe that Ukrproduct Group Ltd is the first Company listed outside of Ukraine to be admitted to trading on the Ukrainian Stock Market since the adoption of new Regulations allowing the dealings in foreign securities in the territory of Ukraine in January 2013. The relevant official announcement of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market (in Ukrainian language) can be found here - Sergey Evlanchik, CEO of Ukrproduct Group commented: "We are pleased with the prospect of having the Company's shares admtted to trading on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange. We expect that the listing on the Ukrainian Stock Exchange will allow us to improve the liquidity of our shares." |
Posted at 05/1/2014 22:50 by aleman A well reasoned response for which I think you. It is always a rare pleasure to have a poster on ADVFN to highlight his disagreement so pleasantly.I'm not saying I can assess this as such in the normal sense. The outlook is too unclear. A non-holder can use this as an excuse avoid risk and walk away and I would generally applaud it. If they can make steady returns or better elsewhere with low risk then they should try and protect their capital - but for the problem, mentioned before, that low risk is sometimes just a perceived low risk that turns out not to be and high risk often later turns out to have been exaggerated . Risk is extremely hard to assess and the market regularly gets it wrong. I speak as an ex-holder of Sportingbet where the risk of US legal action was clearly underestimated and of West China Cement where the P/E dropped to one for reasons I still don't understand. People thought it must be risky because the P/E was only one yet it grew turnover and earnings and went on to more than 10-bag. However, as a holder of UKR, I have to decide if the shares are overvalued, and I should sell, or was I correct in my original decision to buy for recovery in earnings while protected as I waited by the cushion of a very large discount to assets. Given the discount to NAV and NAV ex-intangibles is nearly 80%, it feels like there will still be a cushion against small losses for a year or two. The small fall on the news of CFO walking and the small rise on the report of a likely loss and the hope of recovery does suggest that the cushion is working. Many other shares trading at a large premium to NAV would have plummeted by 50% or more. It suggest the downside is limited on the current outlook or something similar for a year or two. That could change of course such that a reassessment was necessary. It might get better or it might get worse. Given I can't predict how much more likely one is than the other, I can only then look at how much it can move in each direction on reasonable 3-year outlook. I would say the downside is 100% and the upside is 500-1000%. Those odds looks pretty good to me so it looks worth a flutter. The hard question for me, given the temptation to flutter, is what I am prepared to risk in exposure level. That one I am working on. (I'd agree with your viewpoint if it were trading at NAV or maybe as low as 50% of NAV (remembering that the balance sheet assets look much better quality than some businesses) - that would reduce the multibagging potential greatly. It's only because the discount is pushing 80% that I think the potential makes the continued holding worthwhile for now. At what % discount that changes, I could only really guess. My guess maybe 60%ish. I think the shares should be closer to double the current price despite the bad news, but that would be based on only a crude guess. If they were 20p or so, I might agree with you and sell.) |
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