Ukrproduct Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 04/11/2005 14:08

Simon,

will look, but -as Lloyd George said about something else, "Plenty of 'em, but only one at a time."

[simon gordon] 04/11/2005 13:05

Hi Jonwig

As you like emerging market food companies have you looked at ACHL, it might be right up your street.

GOOD FORTUNE

[jonwig] 04/11/2005 12:50

The acquisitions announced on 4 Oct is now completed (see header).
They've said big cost savings in the two plants by improving controls: excellent progress ahead.

[jonwig] 30/10/2005 07:26

The Business today, article on a big Ukrainian property compant seeking a listing.
Couple of paragraphs about our company, too:

[hectorp] 27/10/2005 11:49

They are certainly 'European' in much the way the Ploes are European ... mostly CAtholic too I believe.
Poland and Ukrain sit beside each other, I noted when I was in Krakow in July, I could get a bust and in 2 hours I'd be in Ukrainian country.
Good the the company if she gets closer trade agreements with the EU.
I dont expect Russia would be keen letting them join the EU however, for strategic reasons, remembering Ukraine is Russia's breadbasket , and Stalin's awful opression of Ukraine, but I could be wrong.

[jonwig] 19/10/2005 09:39

This was in yesterday's Telegraph; the second paragraph is positive for the company - though maybe a bit strong on rhetoric:

The Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, yesterday set out an ambitious timetable for integration with the West, saying he expected to open membership talks with Nato by next May.

Declaring that "the Ukraine is at the heart of Europe, and Europe cannot live without its heart", Mr Yushchenko said his country was also on the path to signing a free trade agreement with the EU within 15 months and an "association agreement" within three years.

Full article:



Thought it would be a good idea to stress a few fundamentals and background in today's nervy market.

[jhan66] 18/10/2005 21:29

new WHI note

[dysonhooverman] 14/10/2005 08:45

Too samllcap - can't trade them. A poor excuse I know. Should maybe look at changing my system

[jonwig] 14/10/2005 08:42

hodginsjkp,

The acquisition (post #28 and link in header, 04/10) bought ready-made capacity, and the impression earlier was that they would have to build their own.

The WHI note was a while ago, but some advisory brokers may have been putting their clients into this.

Apart from that, I couldn't comment. Remember it's bid proof.

[hodginsjkp] 13/10/2005 23:56

Nicely up in the general bloodbath today.
Anyone found a reason? More to come?

[jonwig] 13/10/2005 20:03

Just to whet your appetite, Hectorp, here's the Ukrainian diet in a nutshell (or maybe a dumpling!):



And here:



with your holiday cottage all ready.

The Ukrainian diet depends heavily on rye bread, potatoes, and borsch (beet soup). Pork and pork products, especially sausage and salo (a type of smoked bacon), are favored meats. Alcohol consumption, especially of the potent horilka, a wheat-based whiskey, is high, and smoking is widespread.

Here too:



The rye bread is indeed excellent, a local bakery here in Bradford (Kolos) has a national reputation.

I started off looking for evidence of cheese consumption, but it does (as the company says) seem pretty low.

More seriously, it all seems to go to Russia (article dated Jan 05):

[hectorp] 13/10/2005 17:48

Ah .. Kiev in springtime.. and the cattle eating the fine grass of the plains, to make lovely "cheddar" for our company's packged products.
I think I must visit, to see the famous Oddessa steps, and get p*ssed , will be a Prague nightlife venue in 3-4 years time but not yet... lovely culture, museums, art...
Also there is JKX mining, which is a very fine example of UK biz making money in Ukraine.
I was in Krakow recently, and I see its only an hour further to get into Ukraine. Might drive it for fun.
- hey the stock put on a few p today, which is nice.

[jonwig] 13/10/2005 12:46

Just being nosey, Mr D... but why can't you?
Has Mrs D hoovered up all the spare £££?

[dysonhooverman] 13/10/2005 12:40

God if I could only buy some of these!! These Ukrainians would drive 36 hours from over there - still smiling - turn around and catch the ferry home. Mad -mad as eggs!

[jonwig] 13/10/2005 12:39

Hello Hectorp.

Long term I think is right.
They should have decent margin advantages while the Ukraine plays catch-up, or their government decides they have too much monopoly advantage.

John.

[hectorp] 13/10/2005 12:19

buying them.. long term in sipp.

[simon gordon] 12/10/2005 13:11

Chart flasher?

[getscenic] 12/10/2005 12:20

can't wait to try the crab flavored cheese!

[haystack iv] 09/10/2005 08:23

This one has alot further to fall.

[jonwig] 09/10/2005 08:17

The WH Ireland research note is available online:

[jonwig] 04/10/2005 19:10

On the acquisition trail now, and for cash.
Cost rationalisation, growing market share, no margins pressure from Tesco, etc.

Ukrproduct Group ('UPG') is pleased to announce the offer to acquire 100% of the capital of the Jhmerinka Butter & Cheese Plant Ltd and a 62% stake in the Letichiv Dairy Plant for a total cash consideration of £1.3 million. The offer is being financed through the funds raised at the Group's admission to AIM in February 2005.

Link in Header to full story.

[jonwig] 17/9/2005 17:56

W H Ireland updated their forecasts straight after the results on 15/09, and verdict is BUY:

2005 2006
Pretax(£m) eps(p) Pretax(£m) eps(p)
2.70 4.84 3.90 7.00


This isn't too far adrift from the very rough numbers I came up with in post #25; depends on the tax charge.

[quickmind] 16/9/2005 13:21

- Jonwig

Many thanks for your analysis. I'm watching this one but I'm not a holder yet. One thing that puzzles me is that while news flow has been positive; the share price has not been responding well (actually in retreat since early April). I prefer to wait a bit longer. QM

[jonwig] 15/9/2005 15:26

Hello quickmind.

Yes, it looks as though they do. The worst months (for weather) are Jan and Feb (ie in H1) and their logistics arm at least will be quieter then. It might be best to compare T/O 17.3 with 11.0 then maybe expect 16.1 to reach 25.3.

Here's a breakdown for the last three half years (£m). I've used 'combined' rather than 'consolidated' figures as you've done:

..............H104...H204...H1 05
T/O...........11.0...16.1...17.3
CoS...........-9.3..-13.4..-14.4
Gross margin..15.5%..16.8%..16.8%
PBT............0.9....0.9....1.3
P after tax....0.6....0.9....1.2

So H1 to H1 is a 100% increase in PafterT. Applying this to H2 suggests total for the year of £3.0m (6.9p/sh) on a 'combined' basis or 5.4p on a 'consolidated' basis.
All this is pretty makeshift on my part, just application of simple proportion, as I've no idea how to compare 'combined' with 'consolidated'.

What I like about this company is that it's moving sales ahead in a 'luxury' sector of a growing emerging economy, and has good margins as a consequence.

I wasn't, actually, expecting them to pay a dividend so soon, but that's excellent news for AIM investment companies in the 'income growth' area.

Regards,
John

[quickmind] 15/9/2005 13:10

Hi Jonwig,

The company did £17.3m (£11.0m) sales in six months to 30 June 2005. Last year they did £27.1m. It follows that the revenue in the six months to 31 Dec. 2004 was £16.1m (27.1 -11). From 16.1 to 17.3 is 7.5% growth (not bad). Does the company do more business in the second half? QM