Total Systems Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 22/8/2007 13:44

Josh says he's in cash well buying TTS you are effectively going into cash and property.

Looking at the acoounts the loss last year was largely due to increased R&D expense. Also I see the directors gave themselves pay-rises. The poor cash flow largely due to capital expenditure on their London offices and the purchase of Invu s/w for resale.

BEK might be worth a look as well. Share price 5p net cash over 14p.

[egoi] 22/8/2007 13:18

Fair points cfb but if someone is getting 60p of assets for under 40p (plus the product suite for free) then due diligence is a minor consideration financially. TCC was a management buyout (initially) as they had big holdings.

Agree they need a new sales director, but then a predator might look and think this is just the sort of company that could be easily turned around by a predator with a decent sales team.

That said buying solely in the hope of a takeover is a sure way to the poorhouse as a general rule.

I'd be buying on assets far more than on the takeover idea.

[cfb2] 22/8/2007 12:53

The combination of the cost of due diligence and the large shareholding by the directors doesn't make this a likely takeover target.

The lack of sales director, and consequent lack of contracts, is more of a worry. However, I would argue that the sales of software for TTS is not directly linked to the economic cycle as JoshAlexander states. Streamlining and improving productivity are activities that are more likely to be undertaken when cost cutting i.e. at the bottom of the economic cycle.

CFB

[egoi] 22/8/2007 12:15

Hi Hugepants, think you are right to be buying at these levels. Now well below what I sold at and no bad news since, considering getting back in myself, if the market wobble of the last few weeks steadies. 23p a share cash and the London property, so even if they make a small loss trading a long way below real nav; could be a takeover target imho as happened with similarly asset rich TCC .led to an immediate 50% uplift to that share price

[joshalexander] 20/8/2007 22:19

This is a financial BB for the exchange of views.
And I will keep posting relevant points.

No new contract wins.

No new Sales Director - I wonder why the delay??.

And loss making at this stage of the Economic cycle.



Kindest Regards

[weatherman] 20/8/2007 22:11

Josh - surely you have better things to do than keep posting here gloating over other people's apparent mistakes - its August - you have no involvement in the market so go away and enjoy the sunshine - at least until the end of September.

[joshalexander] 20/8/2007 19:56

Unlike some I have not called this consistently incorrectly - and lost money here, like the ridiculous egoi. I called this correctly and did not lose money, egoi called this incorrectly and did - very easy to understand for anyone reading this thread.

The permabulls here have been buying all the way down.

No new Sales Director appointed and NO new contract wins announced.



And for the record egoi, as you will probably read this.
I have never worked past or present for TTS, or had any connection with anyone who has.
Hope your holdings are not being hot too hard by the present downturn, you sound in a bad mood.
I have been in cash since April, I called that correctly as well.

[egoi] 20/8/2007 11:39

Is that 'person' still here? i can't see what he is saying as still filtered nor do i care. HP I guess from your reply he is still going on about macro features rather than anything factual about TTS's strong asset position.

I wonder if he is a failed ex-employee?

I've seen a few on these boards over the years. His earlier posts certainly made him sound to me like that.

[hugepants] 17/8/2007 08:14

TTS lost money last year. Before that its almost always made money. As for business conditions about to get tougher well the economy is growing at a fair old clip so I dont know where you're coming from.

[joshalexander] 16/8/2007 18:42

HugePants

I did say that the cycle was turning and that it was very unwise to add to your holding at this time. Business conditions about to get tougher, and TTS are currently loss making while the Economy has boomed. This does not bode well IMO.

[rossco] 08/8/2007 21:33

Is anyone going to the AGM?

[hugepants] 01/8/2007 15:53

Actually TTS have nearly always been profitable, and have paid a healthy dividend. The recent results were the first loss for several years. Heres the last 10 years - only 2 have been loss making;

The house brokers forecasts seem to be unduly pessimistic; have undershot eps estimates by 4p per share the last couple of years. If theyve done so again this year then TTS will be at break-even. The investment case for me is net cash + property worth conservatively 45p per share. And R&D expense increasing so Im pretty confident theyll start winning decent contracts sometime in the next few decades. Or it could be tomorrow.

Also the 2007 accounts are now online

[joshalexander] 27/7/2007 20:37

HugePants

I admire your consistency, but fear you will be proved consistently wrong.
You are adding to your holding, just as the Economic Cycle is turning.
TTS are loss making while the UK economy has boomed, heaven help them as Business conditions start to become tougher.

You must have a hotline to Terry Bourne, if you are now adding IMO.
Next time you speek with TB, congratulate him for all he has achieved over the last 15 years - outstanding.

[hugepants] 26/7/2007 19:16

Im drip-feeding money in at this price. Ive loads of small software companies on my watchlist and this baby is the cheapest.

[joshalexander] 15/7/2007 12:20

It sounds to me that company may be only one decent contract away from moving back into profit.'

More deluded postiing - and that is why the Sales Director left with immediate effect.

The fact that TTS is making a loss at this stage of the economic cycle is the real cause for concern here. What happens with the next downturn. This is another valid point never discussed by the rampers on this thread. TTS is loss making while the UK Economy has grown rapidly.

Cash resources will dwindle at a rapid rate with the current level of loss.
TTS remains a strong sell IMO.

Regards.

[egoi] 15/7/2007 10:47

No answer? have you never made a loss. Your lack of an answer in my view gives you away. I'm not waiting any longer, and my above post incase your maths ain't up to it, a 32k profit plus divvies v a 2k loss. I know which matters to me JA.

When did i last mention Capita?

Just to reiterate HP's excellent post:

HugePants - 11 Jul'07 - 23:55 - 121 of 127

Ive had a look at the new broker's note which reads more encouragingly than the results statement. Brewin Dolphin have forecast revenues of 3.3M for this year and eps loss reducing to 3.8p. Although they do say if the company's strategy to improve sales proves a success then theyd have to re-evalute.

They also say:

"...Total does have a large pipeline (well in excess of last year) but as yet little in the way of firm orders and timing of pipeline conversion is difficult to predict...."

They also mention there has been underlying growth in revenues given the size of business that has been lost (Shell and BlueSure)

Also mentions the "freehold office" likely worth in "excess of £2M"

It sounds to me that company may be only one decent contract away from moving back into profit.'

Over 30 degrees here toay, off to enjoy.

Oh by the way, JA filtered, period.

[joshalexander] 15/7/2007 10:36

Filter me, your posting is ridiculous.

You have lost money and are angry and do not even have the decency to admit that the points I made were valid. "Oh the Capita contarct" - on and on - LOL. You are embarassed because you called this incorrectly. But try to braoden the discussion to hide your embarassment - this is a TTS thread!. A stock you have recently SOLD at a LOSS.

Go and patronise someone else.

[hugepants] 12/7/2007 22:53

What a load of codswallop you post josh. You keep claiming the company has done nothing for twenty years and all of a sudden you claim its likely to be taken private. Why now? You must have inside info. Name your source please. Put up or shut up.

As regards the property I dont think it will be sold either. But it provides a safety net if trading gets worse and cash becomes tight. They then have the option of a sale and leaseback arranagment.

[egoi] 12/7/2007 22:49

After twenty plus years and making six figure sums - overall - in that time, I take my losses on the chin when they happen, but enjoy the 150%s when they come along, something (I suspect jealous!) Josh has clearly yet to understand imho.

I have never put a timeframe on this company realising value (unless you can quote me otherwise) and loss was BETTER than I forecast, but accepting my personal small loss when the contracts did not emerge, and moving on.

Why do you post on this thread JA?
To warn people because of your 'great experience'? )

Then why not post on the PTL thread or hundreds of others?

I note: 'No discussions created by 'joshalexander'

My guess is you post here cos you want to buy into TTS at some stage, please explain if otherwise? thank you.

Of course if you avoid the question as I expect, I would not be surprised if the rest of us draw our own conclusions about you.

Care to share your portfolio with us Josh if you have one, and I am assuming if we took your comments at face value, all your investments are always profitable of course, or are you not ready to start investing until you learn from experienced investors, like HugePants and others on this thread?

We'd really like to help you; because as I see it there is you thinking that because one share you post on dropped a few p on results which is what you speculated might happen your high and mighty, self righteous, pompous and flatulent tone only does you a most grave disservice and actually serves I fear only to betray you and make you look foolish in more experienced investors' eyes. And it makes it sound dangerously like you think you've cracked it'.

Well I got news for you JA, life ain't like that - but that is when you are truly at your most vulnerable in the markets.. Every investor has winners and losers, and for Josh Alexander I fear there is no exception. The trick is to get more right than wrong, as I'm sure you will learn.

But by all means if you wish you spend your time whingeing and 'lecturing'; LOL, I'll continue to spend mine taking necessary actions to maximize my portfolio's profits. -:)

Very good luck Josh, happy learning. And note if you are in the market a lifetime you will still be learning - or (as I suspect as is the reality in your case despite this bull market) losing.

[joshalexander] 12/7/2007 20:56

egoi

If you are so sure about the value being realised, then why did you sell?? your postings is ridiculous. If it makes you feel better to still think of TTS as some great value play then fine, it does not change the fact that you lost money here.


Now, this is what holders need to focus on.
TTS is very likely to be taken private if trading does not improve IMO.
And who has a major say at what price this will happen??
The major and controlling shareholder.

The freehold will not be sold while TTS remains a PLC IMO.
Posters here are being naive - and that is being very kind.

[hugepants] 11/7/2007 23:55

Ive had a look at the new broker's note which reads more encouragingly than the results statement. Brewin Dolphin have forecast revenues of 3.3M for this year and eps loss reducing to 3.8p. Although they do say if the company's strategy to improve sales proves a success then theyd have to re-evalute.

They also say:

"...Total does have a large pipeline (well in excess of last year) but as yet little in the way of firm orders and timing of pipeline conversion is difficult to predict...."

They also mention there has been underlying growth in revenues given the size of business that has been lost (Shell and BlueSure)

Also mentions the "freehold office" likely worth in "excess of £2M"


It sounds to me that company may be only one decent contract away from moving back into profit.

[egoi] 11/7/2007 23:14

Speculate on Josh.
The value is there as ALL posters on this thread have now understood, or they would NOT be here. I have a great deal of respect for posters who have started threads of their own on here, and for people I consider honest posters such as Weathrman.

The day will come when value is unlocked.

Pug I bought 75k FID at 2.8p happily (always happy to spread risk!) to a biggish stake a few months ago (up 150% since!) so my 20% loss on TTS has hardly been a big deal!

EDIT:
Plus:FID out with a cracking statement this morning, could leave the 150% behind!!


Now back to TTS............

[weatherman] 11/7/2007 20:32

one day something will happen to unlock the value.