Total Systems Share Discussion Threads

[egoi] 03/7/2007 09:49

A comforting thought for the bulls; if the property was valued properly, the real nav is probably around 70p, so I think Josh is being more than a little lopsided in his comments, failing to spot the (I'd have thought rather obvious) value for those with the faith, while unfortunately gemini fails to give a single cogent reason imho for his 'negativity'.

Even though I am out I think it is only right all posters should exercise due balance - and give reasoning - for their comments.

[joshalexander] 03/7/2007 09:30

Well, I did try to caution here that the Bulls were being for too optimistic,
but people did not want to listen. The lack of any Share purchases by the Sales Director was a big clue here IMO.

TTS are struggling at the top of the economic cycle, at a time when they should be making good profits (and they did previosly at this stage of the cycle). What happens now when the economy turns down??.

I also made the point at the time of the Capita contract, that there was no value given. The Bulls kept banging on about the size of Capita, they missed a vital point, it was the size of the contract that was important, not the size of Capita. They put 2 and 2 together and got 5. There was always far too much speculation here far my liking IMO.

[gemini99] 03/7/2007 09:25

Until the directors put their hands in their pockets avoid. looks like dead money just now

[gemini99] 03/7/2007 08:48

something seriously amiss here

[weatherman] 03/7/2007 08:48

One good thing about TTS is its growing and large asset value. I think TTS management should throw in the towel and retire - they look of retirement age anyway - and sell the assets to a company that can make more use of it and give the long suffering shareholders some good news.

[egoi] 03/7/2007 08:37

I think what really clinched it for me Pugugly was this bit:

'Current trading is difficult for a number of reasons. The level of work from
Capita has not been as extensive as anticipated and our existing customers,
although supportive, have not made decisions on starting significant projects.

While the Capita comment was disappointing and what most will focus on, it was the use of the word 'existing' that really put the knife in.

If they can't get new ones and 'existing' are, let's say, dragging their feet a bit over expansion, that is seriously worrying.

I've learnt over the years it's better to take these things on the chin with my underperformers - as I've said elsewhere there are a lot of good companies doing great business competing for my hard-earned, even if it often means paying more of a premium rating, to worry about strugglers that might bounce or get taken over.

Best wishes to those who decide to see it through, you've got decent asset protection and they most certainly aren't in any financial trouble!

I genuinely hope it turns around for you. FIO, I sold 5k at 33.3p and 20k at 31p trades which will show later I guess.

So there is some cheap stock for the faithful at below nav. :)

[pugugly] 03/7/2007 08:23

egoi- I am inclined to agree with you. I have given TB the benifit of plenty of time to get his act together but an now suspecting that soemthing is seriously wrong with the product or sales force, BUT they fired the old salesforce and brought in a new team - they cannot even seem to sell INVU which so far as I can see is a great product and has enjoyed considerable sales growth.

Anyone close to the company able to give more insight?

Even though they have cash at the rate they are bleeding will not last more than a few years

[egoi] 03/7/2007 08:08

It's not the results, (nav almost 40p, even with the property understated) actually loss is lower than my forecast of 750k at 550k, it's the outlook.

Cash is a little below what I expected but still over 22p a share, while there is no debt.

My trouble is I have heard the same tune played a thousand times with the company now and it never changes.

Maybe there will be a takeover at a higher price - and it is trading not far above cash, there is the property, but I'm out.

[9degrees] 03/7/2007 08:06

How downbeat can they make it? - Not a very encouraging statement !! Where is the upside ? Quite a large increase in capital - is this work in progresson software devlopment or what ??

[arthur_lame_stocks] 03/7/2007 07:42

Disappointing results I thought.

[weatherman] 02/7/2007 14:21

Would be great to have some corporate action in these.

We ought to organise ourselves and lobby TTS to improve its ROCE. All those assets sitting there are not doing much - should be returned to shareholders.

[egoi] 02/7/2007 13:45

I'd love to buy more as I'm sure we will get a mark up tomorrow as I expect the outlook statement, which will be key, to be good. Hmmm but where to get funds from!

Loss of 750k my guess, then break even forecast for the current year.

Still stuffed with net assets of course.

Edit: tried cheekily to buy 5k at 39.5p - nothing doing.

[egoi] 21/6/2007 14:55

HP it sounds as though the article was put together raggedly at best, anyway i like you think the property will be worth double that. I've seen it mentioned in Paulypilot's on the odd occasion that the subject isn't Voller and here:
Like this thread it goes back a fair way.

[rainmaker] 21/6/2007 13:19

Thanks HP-That's the first time outside of this BB that I've heard anyone comment on their Property. Brewin are talking of it being worth in excess of #2mln but correct me if I'm wrong, that it's only in their Books for #800k-Although a wide discrepancy in forecasts of it's value, everyone here agreed that it was worth substantially more than it's Book value!

regards

[9degrees] 21/6/2007 11:53

is the joint venture their tie up with INVU from whom they bought "for stock " last year

[egoi] 21/6/2007 09:19

Thanks, I was expecting a loss of 750k - 1 million from earlier comments etc, to be followed by break even next year. Hopefully going to do better than that.

[hugepants] 21/6/2007 09:14

egoi

Brewin Dolphin forecasts were for revenues of £3M this year. So we should therefore have revenues of £3.35M which is almost the same as last year when revenues were £3.5M (which gave eps of 2p). Actually their numbers dont make much sense eg. they translated the 0.5M forecast reduction in revenues to a 0.5M reduction in operating profits!? There were also forecasting a £0.1M loss due to joint venture set-up costs (unless Ive missed something Ive not read anything about any joint venture). And £0.3M exra costs for the expanded sales team (seems high).

Incidentally they also mention the London property which is "thought to be worth in excess of 2M".

[egoi] 21/6/2007 08:38

HP, do you - or anyone - know what the house broker was forecasting, I'd imagine that is what the 'City' comment is based on.

[hugepants] 20/6/2007 18:33

I did predict this a few posts back!

[egoi] 20/6/2007 16:40

Hope some of you are still here, because it looks like things are on the up I estimate cash will be above 25p a share and with the property and negligible debt..........

'Total Systems plc ('the Company') suppliers of cost effective and flexible
software systems to the financial services industry, primarily in the insurance
and warranty sectors, will announce on Tuesday 3 July its final results for the
year ended 31 March 2007.

The Company is pleased to announce that, subject to audit, turnover will be
approximately £350,000 greater than market expectations. As a result the Company
will be reporting a smaller loss than that anticipated by the market.'

Bring on the rerating!

[9degrees] 05/6/2007 13:59

Capita seems to be increasing their insurance business which should help TTS and also see the sentence below about them buying small bolt on businesses such as the travel software house Harry Weeks

.from 2 may 2007 Independent
Although no new contracts were announced yesterday alongside Capita's trading update and AGM statement, some of the work it has picked up this year give a flavour of where its potential lies. A good example is the contract with Countrywide Assured to administrate some 80,000 life and pensions policies.
Allied to this, it has an active strategy of expanding through small bolt-on acquisitions such as the recent purchase of the business travel software company Harry Weeks, which will beef up Capita's existing travel administration business.

Unlike some of its rivals, Capita has stuck to the UK, where it is biggest provider of back-office functions in a market with a lot more growth to come judging by the bid pipeline.
Could we see TTS being taken over ?

And then on 31 may 2007
Citigroup lifts Capita Group (CPI.LN) target to 725p from 680p after signing a GBP580M outsourcing contract with Resolution (RSL.LN). Says the contract should contribute GBP40M turnover in 07 and GBP100M in 08. Says the group already led the sector "but this large contract win takes it significantly ahead of the competition with about 15M policies under administration."

[9degrees] 05/6/2007 10:55

Expect trading statement in next week or two and then Results due early July .
With Capita's recent news on tie up with Resolution there should be good news in piepline . Cant see the results being too bad as there should be two months of Capita business to maybe replace any lost business such as Shell. Interest received on the cash pile should be up on previous year

[hugepants] 18/5/2007 14:40

Last year TTS were forecast to lose £0.1M. Instead they posted a profit of over £0.2M so I wouldnt put too much weight on the forecasts. Note also there was a trading update in June last year that said results would be above market expectations. Im hoping for another one of these this year especially so given there was a new Ultima contract announced in January.

[egoi] 16/5/2007 11:58

Moving on anyone know when results are. I am expecting a (historic of course) loss of under a million but with a very strong outlook statement and still around 25p per share in cash.

My suspicion is that the property will be worth more than people think but until the company have it revalued no-one can be sure, (I enquired in 2005 and the response was the figure would be pure guesswork until any formal revaluation was done, which was not planned) but comments from all the leading sector players indicate London is still explosive.
And with the Olympics I suspect that boom is far from over, however much the doom-mongers wish it was!

I continue to hold and am happy with the recent support at and above 40p. Hopefully post results these will re-rate to a more realistic (higher) level. In the meantime one more contract and I think the value will very quickly be 'outed'.

Interesting the battle for TCC, which is very similar in many ways to TTS, (and also had a chunk of cash and a similarly 'clean' balance sheet) the bids have come at a near 50% premium to its share price.