Sport Media Share Discussion Threads

[risk1] 26/2/2011 14:34

Hi Pedro

what was ebitda last year for the 17month period?

[pedro57] 26/2/2011 14:31

I am surprised that we did not get more of a share price increase on back of the pre-close statement, which for the first time in a long time highlighted a more positive message for SPMG. I am afraid the fact that the LSE was down on Friday meant that the pre-close statement got less attention than it should have had. As I said before the pre-close statement in my view has derisked SPMG significantly. I would be surprised if we do not see some more buying in the shares until the results end of April. I know I will be adding to the position I have got.

[risk1] 26/2/2011 14:29

i just looked at some of the trades from friday

Why on earth would anyone sell at 1p and less what is the point ?

absolute madness

it looks like the market makers are walking it up to me

it is worth more than a penny and the market makers know it

private punters losing money

[knowing] 25/2/2011 14:09

Being asked 1.33 now

[pedro57] 25/2/2011 13:51

This news has derisked SPMG significantly, from here on expect gradual buying and a rerating at a higher level. The ask price has already moved up around 25% since yesterday. As stated before SPMG would have not released a pre-close statement without having become more positive about its prospects.

[knowing] 25/2/2011 13:34

Max online buy size 150K

[knowing] 25/2/2011 11:35

That is good news and to see the banks supportive even better. Banks are being very cautious these days so to agree terms is a big positive.

[pedro57] 25/2/2011 10:29

I cannot believe that today of all days the LSE is down.

[pedro57] 25/2/2011 08:12

In my view SPMG would not have published a pre-close update if the operating environment had not been improving in 2011. 2010 performance is in-line with management expectations of last Sep, more importantly the digital side of the business, which has been the real underperformer has had a better 2010, which bodes well for 2011. It will still be a bumpy ride, but was is key for me is that this company is not going bust, is cash-generative and not worth the low current share price. It will be interesting to see where we finish today.

[pedro57] 25/2/2011 08:10

Limit is now only 50,000 to buy at 1.39p.

[risk1] 25/2/2011 07:26

pedro please expand a little on your statement

[pedro57] 25/2/2011 07:06

Pre-close update out and it is looking good...

[risk1] 23/2/2011 22:22

it goes up sharply imo

[risk1] 23/2/2011 22:22

it goes up sharply imo

[knowing] 23/2/2011 16:49

Would have thought this market would have bought out sellers however very few so what happens when the buying starts.

[risk1] 22/2/2011 18:07

yep and they are going to make a profit again

I think the price is way too low

simple as that

i guess time will tell

[cartagena2] 22/2/2011 08:39

They were making £6 million a year profit then.

[risk1] 21/2/2011 18:37

yep

and also carried that debt at 70p???

[cartagena2] 21/2/2011 09:21

Priced as being £11.5 million in debt.

[risk1] 20/2/2011 13:25

Priced as bust

Not going bust

Overhang clearing

Option value here

I will let you guess what is about to happen but imo this isn't heading south

:-)

[risk1] 19/2/2011 13:19

it certainly appears that the bottom has been reached and hopefully we will see a sharp correction in the share price in the run up to the results I honestly believe the share price is way too low given the fact the company isn't going bust any time soon

Thanks very much to lloyds for providing us with this opportunity

[pedro57] 19/2/2011 08:57

Knowing, I do not think there are that many shares left to buy at the current share price level. SPMG could indeed continue to move up strongly with the buy limit cut back as much as it has been (I noticed a number of smallish trades going through after the 250K buy order yesterday). It will be interesting to continue to observe the share price action and volumes. Answering your question Risk it is hard to find out the exact forecasts market consensus (only one broker Daniel Stewart) were going for pre the warning. I have a report from Jan 2010, where FY10 expectations for SPMG were for an EBITDA of £2.1m and EPS of 0.8p (there might however have been one more report published between Jan 2010 - Sep 2010). Today market consensus is going for an EBITDA of £1.4m and EPS of 0.4p for SPMG, these forecasts were last updated beginning of 2011.