Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Sport Media LSE:SPMG London Ordinary Share GB00B11FCP94 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.925p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 30.9 -29.2 -27.4 - 0.93

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Date Time Title Posts
11/4/201210:41*** Sports Media ***148
13/10/201121:57one fat bold Northern slapper in a bikini doth not a summer make177
24/11/201011:20Sports Media....a good recovery play !202
04/3/201010:35Tipped in Investor Chronicle2

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pedro57: Nice to see a 333K buy today, looking at online prices it is clear that overhang in SPMG has cleared and I do not think it would take a lot of buying for shares to move higher (they are already price one-third higher than a couple of weeks ago). I am however disappointed that we did not get more of a share price reaction to pre-close statement on Friday, which I thought was really good. In my view fact that LSE was offline for half the day took the shine off of this good statement, which is a shame. I will be adding to existing position into FY10 results end of April given my view that worst is over and results should shed positive insights into 2011 performance.
pedro57: I am surprised that we did not get more of a share price increase on back of the pre-close statement, which for the first time in a long time highlighted a more positive message for SPMG. I am afraid the fact that the LSE was down on Friday meant that the pre-close statement got less attention than it should have had. As I said before the pre-close statement in my view has derisked SPMG significantly. I would be surprised if we do not see some more buying in the shares until the results end of April. I know I will be adding to the position I have got.
risk1: it certainly appears that the bottom has been reached and hopefully we will see a sharp correction in the share price in the run up to the results I honestly believe the share price is way too low given the fact the company isn't going bust any time soon Thanks very much to lloyds for providing us with this opportunity
pedro57: Knowing, I do not think there are that many shares left to buy at the current share price level. SPMG could indeed continue to move up strongly with the buy limit cut back as much as it has been (I noticed a number of smallish trades going through after the 250K buy order yesterday). It will be interesting to continue to observe the share price action and volumes. Answering your question Risk it is hard to find out the exact forecasts market consensus (only one broker Daniel Stewart) were going for pre the warning. I have a report from Jan 2010, where FY10 expectations for SPMG were for an EBITDA of £2.1m and EPS of 0.8p (there might however have been one more report published between Jan 2010 - Sep 2010). Today market consensus is going for an EBITDA of £1.4m and EPS of 0.4p for SPMG, these forecasts were last updated beginning of 2011.
pedro57: Good to see a pick-up of activity and a debate going on at SPMG's message board. Cartagena, if you look at SPMG's past investor presentations you will see that there hasn't been a decline in readership since 2009, over 1H10 the Daily Sport sold 72,400 copies during the work-week and over Jul-Aug there was a small improvement with 73,500 copies sold. I think it is unlikely that these trends would have changed so much over Sep-Dec to arrive at your 10% decline in physical newspaper sales. You are correct that it is all about sales, but the way I view SPMG is that at a share price of 1p the worst is priced in the company is not going bust even if there were to be a further deterioration in cash generation. All management needs to do is grow sales and cut costs a little bit and we will see decent EPS and even better cash generation. It is also important to remember that the Daily Sport was bought for £50m, currently SPMG's enterprise value is £12m, which in my undervalued the asset even if its value were 1/3 of the original purchase price SPMG should be trading at a multiple to where it is today. You were referencing the difficult situation the UK newspaper industry is in, which is true, but at the same time UK newspaper shares have more than doubled over the last two year and are trading at higher valuations than SPMG.
risk1: Pedro Thanks, you clearly know your stuff I have gone through everything and am in no doubt this is too cheap my only question is when will everyone catch on to this recovery story at this rock bottom share price of 1p The company still had 10 million debt when the share price was many multiples of where it stands today and it continues to generate significant cash so aided by its cost savings can see the debt will reduce over time This is priced unjustifiably as bust so have tucked a few away and will wait for it to rise which i am sure it will :-)
pedro57: Cartagena, I agree that management really messed up the acquisition of the Daily Sport bombing out sales with the relaunch. The key question is if the current share price is not undervaluing the assets the company has. I do not think Daily Sport is worth the £50m that was paid for it, but if one were to assume a £20m value the share price would be at a multiple where it is today. Interestingly enough overhang in shares is clearing getting quote 1.25 at the ask currently, the highest it has been in weeks.
pedro57: Net debt will continue to decrease, the key thing to remember is that the company is generating cash after paying cash expenses. If you check the last results over 1H10 £70K of cash were generated every month after paying all cash expenses, which resulted in net debt declining by £350K over 1H10. Even if there is no change in the operational performance until now net debt will have continued to decline. What is needed for an uplift in net profit in the P&L will be an improvement either in revenues (more newspapers sold & higher digital division turnover) or lower costs as this benefit will go straight to the bottom line and improve the pay-down in net debt even further. In my view reason for current debt holiday is to improve cash balance to a higher level £300K resulting in the market gaining more confidence in SPMG's survival. The loan holiday will probably not be extended by company. The performance of the digital division has bottomed out and particularly Telecom2 could lead to higher operating profitability in the division. The way I see SPMG is that 1) current share price is result of Lloys selling 15% stake and market not seeing survival of company, 2) as long as cash generation remains at current level net debt gets reduced and company survives so share price too low, 3) any operational improvement would lead to big uplift in financial performance making investment case even better. I hope this helps!
pedro57: There are a number of factors behind the significant decline in the share price; firstly Lloyds, which was the largest shareholder in SPMG sold out of its ~15% stake in entirety (a move repeated in a number of Lloyds owned AIM stocks). This sale put a lot of pressure on the share price given the low liquidity of SPMG and the fact Lloyds sold no matter how low the shares went between Jan-Aug 2010. The second factor is the continued disappointment in the operational performance of SPMG, this company essentially went from being very profitable and paying a big dividend in 2007 to a number of profit warnings and worries over the viability of the business in short course. Currently the market has taken the view that SPMG will close shop hence the low share price.
pedro57: Once the overhang clears the share price will be rebased at a more realistic level. It has not taken as long as I thought to get what was a significant overhang to be reduced. With SPMG showing up as top 3 performer in UK markets yesterday and today it will have generated much more interest than before. The key will be results in end September, we have had positive announcements for one year now on prospects for the Daily Sport, renegotiation of loans, etc. without any reflection in the share price. Once there is prospect of earnings recovery we will have instutions buying back in as current share price outperformance is driven by small-time investors.
Sport Media share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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