-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[mavverick] 02/7/2011 00:00

EI

occupancy has been dropping steadily a few percent each year and the current debacle has probably accelerated the trend.

Agree BB at the moment it is a punt with plenty of potential upside but possibility of losing the lot

[essentialinvestor] 01/7/2011 23:39

Some of us have been posting here for more than a few weeks,
and worked in this Industry.

The use of the term ..coffin dodgers.. to refer to the eldery is telling,
very respectful.

Debt for equity swap was my view on how this would end over 12 months ago,
and this now looms large imv.

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 23:20

Illusive-investor......Yawn.

The big one is public perception,joe public is under the illusion that care for the elderly is free,never has been never will be.

Occupancy figures...well duh.... if we knew that,there's more than enough coffin dodgers around.Ever seen one foot in the grave.

Question who's going to pay.......Do try to keep up.

This is a simple one.............they(sche) live or they die.

Oblivion or Survival, a pure punt plain and simple,just make sure you are on the right side.

A lot of bitter long termers in here dragging the thread down to their level.

There is no middle ground.

IF they survive,the share price could do any thing.

[essentialinvestor] 01/7/2011 23:00

I see it's still delusion on this thread, or should that be dilution imv.

Any latest occupancy figures??..

[mavverick] 01/7/2011 22:49

i think it is a warning of a dilution at best.. and the potential for worse, not a message advising to buy shares

The value of SC will depend on the profile of any portfolio they are left with, actual occupancy being the key factor, but with rent and staff reductions helping considerably

It would look very positive if there were negotiated clauses/plans/options to buy some freeholds

3000 staff cuts could be worth ? £40m
Rent reduction of 30% could be worth ? £60m

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 19:57

WTF.Mind you the beers working.............hic.

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 19:00

It's all kicking off next week.
I expect dildnot to seriously raise awareness of the buying opportunity here.

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 14:12

Price/%= same thing, 50% V Flotation price £250p=125p........or.

25% of floatation price=62p,i'll settle for 50p.

Bit of buying going on, Henderson at it again,let's hope for some clarity on the weekend.

It's Henderson keeping the price up.

[warwick69] 01/7/2011 12:41

YEs i think that Henderson must be thinking the same thing perhaps they have some knowledge of what some landlords are considering?

[boffster] 01/7/2011 12:08

Its not really a case of what price, its more a case of what % of the business shareholders will be left with. I would say that even if it is as little as 25% then there is considerable upside from here.

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 12:00

At what price,any guess's.

[selkirk69] 01/7/2011 11:05

I'd be happy with dilution with the company coming out of it leaner and meaner that'll soon recover the share price many times over.

[boffster] 01/7/2011 10:57

"There are "no plans" for NHP to take on operation of the homes from Southern Cross."

Statements like this, and also the use of the qualifier 'existing' in the RNS, suggests to me that shareholders will likely see some dilution by landlords taking an equity stake

[b1llyboy] 01/7/2011 10:52

Well it appears the tactic is working,Henderson after more,why stop now.

[warwick69] 01/7/2011 09:28

yes total confusion I fancy thy are a buy at these levels but going to be very volatile thats for sure?

[edmondj] 01/7/2011 09:13

Probably the intention!

[lej2] 01/7/2011 09:13

This all suggests that nobody knows what to make of the corporate update