-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[mavverick] 30/6/2011 18:52

not the most comforting wording/content of an rns

[boffster] 30/6/2011 18:50

RNS, doesn't say much really

[selkirk69] 30/6/2011 15:21

Yes noticed that too Boffster, all going on behind the scenes at the moment no doubt, low volume and trades. Someone here mentioned that there's not a lot of shares in the open at the moment.

Perhaps something about to be released to us mushrooms.

[boffster] 30/6/2011 15:05

Auction auction auction, whats going on?

[selkirk69] 29/6/2011 12:55

Yes how quick it all moves on.
Stating the obvious but we'll have to wait for the next RNS for a bit of activity now.

[boffster] 29/6/2011 12:42

The media maelstrom seems to have died off rather quickly.

[boffster] 28/6/2011 13:21

Indeed LEJ2, I don't view an institution buying as a good sign on its own, unless that institution is held in high regard or is considered to be in 'the know'

[lej2] 28/6/2011 13:07

Billy, for every share Henderson buy there is a share sold. If on the private market it is likely by an institution. To suggest that others are adding out of sight suggests that others are selling out of sight. There is no reason to think that Henderson know more than anyone else, although I would agree with selkirk that it would be nice to know if Henderson were filling an order for someone or merely lowering the average share price of their shares.

[selkirk69] 28/6/2011 09:48

Interesting but not sure any of that has any significance here, this is based on market sentiment at the moment, whilst we wait news on the restructure.

The point is Henderson added again to an already big holding, with the whole lot accum in a few weeks/months. I would like to know if have an instruction/order to fill.

[b1llyboy] 28/6/2011 09:37

There's a shortage of these, they have done the stops in for Henderson.

The higher low signals a trend change,which correlates with the double bottom at 4/5p.

[warwick69] 28/6/2011 08:38

henderson still buying another 500,000 purchased they must be sure this is going up?

[warwick69] 27/6/2011 14:47

very quiet again today awaiting further news i guess?

[b1llyboy] 26/6/2011 12:24

Should get some news on capital injection and financial restructuring as the end of the month draws in.An RNS on Friday after the bell would be perfect timing, the 1st July,or Monday 07:00

Ahead of the dilnot report,which is available from.


On Monday the 4th July from 12:00 GMT.

Would expect some steady buying ahead of Monday this week.

[b1llyboy] 24/6/2011 00:44

Mav...

Interesting point but you miss mine,I agree in principal with your comments,but the report will anticipate parliament, as market savvy will precede the "the jugs of office"(weighing heavily on the puny frame of administration)

Deals,as you say will be manifold,however immediate cash flow will be conducive to staff performance levels.

I see this point as central to SCHE immediate(interim)business direction.

Notwithstanding Banks,LL's, et al.Minimum operating funds.

The BOD should announce pay cuts for directors as a goodwill gesture,and good PR.

The positioning by markets have already highlighted this for me.

[mavverick] 23/6/2011 20:45

BB

Not sure i see it like you do.
Dilnot will be about a long term fairer funding strategy (as have other previous reports), but working within initially the coalition deficit reduction strategy/timescale which will give him no room.

My reading is that recommendations will go in July initially to the Chancellor and Health minister ...who after much consideration will then consult with the ...DWP, Local government Ministers. Then,... recommendations will go to the PM. This will take a long time and much more than 3 months and will need parliamentary debate. Ultimately they will want to try to get all party approval for this if possible.

i dont see anything major happening soon from this that will help SC in their restructuring. In effect this will be more of a strategy for 2020 and decades beyond given the demographics (that the footsie top 20 have addressed but councils havn't either for employees or services)in terms of how, who, how much etc will pay for future care, particularly the most dependent elderly. It wont create more people needing to go to a care home or higher fees for SC so i think it will be fairly academic to SC's restructuring. The raising of savings thresholds will only give SC less self payers! The future cost of proposals will no doubt be linked to pension retirement age and tax/NI as in my opinion there will be difficulty ( politically too) in enforcing insurance, although it sounds seductive initially!

In terms of the share price if SC get a deal and come out of this alive it will be a LOT more than 8p unless any equity deal is savage! I think a further 100% dilution is easily tolerable. Four seasons had, i think, had about a 50% dilution to manage their debt. I still think 400 care homes is unlikely and maybe not desirable for SC either.

It will be an interesting 4 months!

[b1llyboy] 23/6/2011 20:14

Good old SKEGGY,

[boffster] 23/6/2011 19:16

You don't tend to hear about people's stories like this one, as it doesn't sell papers.

[b1llyboy] 23/6/2011 18:23

Mav......

SCHE/LL's & Banks etc have 3 MONTHS after the Dilnot commission report is released.

So the Dilnot commission will certainly influence the frame work for restructuring.Income sources and streams will have a major say in the financial future of SCHE via initial voluntary insurance schemes, raising of savings threshold and eventually mandatory insurance for over 50 year olds, etc.

The Dilnot report will provide the necessary buffer for the government to implement it's reforms to the care of the elderly,that along with a summer of discontent,should provide a handy smoke screen.

This is going to be one of the cornerstones in the current governments proposals to shake up the whole of the NHS.(privatisation)

SCHE,BANKS,LL's(investors,analysts) will be waiting with baited breath for their copy of the report on Monday 4th July.

With regards to the share price price.The IPO in 2006 gave the stock a fair value of 250p with 750 care homes=NAV per home of 33p.So if they retain 400 homes that equates to 133p.Assuming the homes become profitable after loan burden restructuring,or am i being to simplistic.
Anybody any views on future share price after restructuring.

[selkirk69] 23/6/2011 17:55

UBS sold 30% of their holding, just over 4m on 21/06, so there's your Holding RNS warwick.

Don't think any of it matters too much as we wait for the 'restructure' to be released.

[mavverick] 23/6/2011 17:36

looks loke ubs sold

[warwick69] 23/6/2011 14:00

why no more Holding RNS re the 3.5millto moveion trade otehr day must have moved someone over or under a threshold?

was that end of major seller ? if so a little concerted buying may start recovery in share price

[mavverick] 23/6/2011 10:17

i doubt Dilnot will influence SC one single bit...SC's problems are too immediate...but might help any backers think that there might be a state plan to provide a solid base.

Councils have had increased funding under Blair but the money hasn't gone on older people in adequate proportions. Government will have to be more prescriptive on council expenditure or merge council elderly care with NHS funding as that is where the money is.

[b1llyboy] 23/6/2011 00:37

Horses mouth...............