Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[superpete] 16/12/2002 16:13

The big profits come from the US part of the business.This is still on my watch list and trading leads me to believe room for shorters to cause mischief.IF SIG trades short then looking for 60p ish or even possible break sub 50p.Has held up clinging onto 70p.In comparison holding better than gmg thus far.Note recording new lows.No current position. Do not short,as always looking to buy low sell high and yet to be convinced that this isn't going 60p.i may be wrong.imho,dyor.

[indalo] 16/12/2002 13:46

Bantam...It's hardly flying now is it!!

Besides, this is probably holders "averagin down"...sho will be sellers at lower levels..lol

I covered half my short this Am at 68p..and will re-open if it reaches 72

[smoketrader] 16/12/2002 13:37

Well I'm in profit anyway. Chart looks bad. Bring it on!

[bantam175] 16/12/2002 13:00

HE HE this is fun. Loads of shorters but the price will not stay down.

I wonder why ;-)

[indalo] 16/12/2002 09:55

yeah right!!!...that'll be people returning unwanted presents..lol

[bantam175] 16/12/2002 09:49

Well we'll just have to wait and see.

There are 3 in my town and you can't get through the door they are so packed?

[indalo] 15/12/2002 21:47

Bantam175 - Keep dreaming mate!

The recent statement was a warning that soft markets "accelarated" during November...highly unlikely that they'll have a bumper Xmas now is it!?

Besides, the H Samuel in my town is tacky, looks pants, and the merchandise is overpriced IMO.

Shoppers are looking at price tags this year.

If management were confident of a recovery in sales they would have been buying shares after the update IMO, as a show of confidence in the business.

[bantam175] 15/12/2002 20:30

Within 3 weeks xmas figures will be out. Closer to 160 than 60 if they perform like the last 2 years.

[wageslave] 15/12/2002 20:21

Fascinating. Thanks

[indalo] 14/12/2002 11:49

You truly are a big man to be buying these with a chart like that!

60p within 3 weeks

[indalo] 14/12/2002 11:49

You truly are a big man to be buying these with a chart like that!

60p within 3 weeks

[random] 14/12/2002 11:26

bottom of ftse trend line is at about 3750.

NAS 100 has been reshaped. Have not checked yet, but would not be surprised if new entries are somewhat overbought. This could cause it to fall further! This is what has been happening to the ftse once bubble stocks got kicked out. The replacements have to be overbought to get into the index.
----------------

for cycle timing a similar notation could be designed like the trend signature, a cycle based timing and wavecount itinarary.

Note that these two components are orthogonal. EW contains no timing information, which makes it good for the job. However, the cycle information must be incorporated into the CORRECT wave count, with
It would work like this:

EW wavecount symbols 1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c,x

EW signature: eg 5 3 x c 2 b, where 5 is grand supercycle, b is sub minutae.

The CORRECT count should have market tops with lots of 5's, and market bottoms
with lots of c's. These points will likely have signature ++++++, ------ -> ++DHD- etc ..... this shows a similarity between signatures and EW, and can possibly help constructing the plausible counts. As far as I can tell, it is impossible to construct "the wave count". There are many alternatives, and it is often subjective. The signature by constrast, is well defined. The signature is a more primative concept than EW.

I can see many ways now in which the sig can be used to help generate counts.

So the important parts of a cycle are:
How long is it? Time in whatever unit
Where are we in it? say period normalised to 1. 0 = cycle low, 1/2 = cycle top, 1 = next cycle bottom.

Then:
form the cycle position: (only estimated ... worth getting the real figures)
70 years(!) 0.515, 20 year cycle 0.51, 1 year cycle 0.48, 100 day cycle 0.52 ....


ie.
++- is the leading term of the equity trend signature, given the rather course cycle position above. Increasing the resoluton will give better results.

Since the cycle times tend to remain constant, once the periods are known, only the cycle fraction needs to be used.

+ + -
0.515 0.51 0.48

clearly this is the signature of a long term bear market, in a longer term bull market, near a cycle high. Before a bull market can be declared, the 20 year cycle timing has to approach 1. According to this analysis, the low should occur around 2012.

The long term trend analysis has to be corrected against inflation. It might occur that equities could enter a + - - trend, in which case equities would underperform on the long term for many years. Perhaps there is a reason why the two leading terms are + + in an inflationary enviroment. A deflationary period could lead to + -, or even - -. If this was to happen, equity might end as a way of raising capital. The not so slow death of shares. The leading ---'s would piledrive equities to nothing.

This possibility has to be considered, particularly since bonds are generally a cheaper way to fund corporations if profits are growing. If the 2012 trend line is broken. then that would lead to a potential + - super trend. This seems to be similar to the nikkei bear, which grinds on and on.

[energyi] 14/12/2002 09:42

R.,
Whatever one uses, a warning of a turn is very useful.

Everything looks set up for a BIG DROP on Monday and some follow-thru
the rest of the week. Ideal low for me is COB Thursday or sometime Friday

[bigman] 14/12/2002 09:17

Took a large chunk of these this week, sorry to all the guys going short.

[random] 13/12/2002 23:18

energyi, the steps in the signature can be altered to be in sync with the cycles.

Have you looked at fourier series? They pick out all the cycles perfectly. A chart of the spectrum would give what you want: the energy (!) at each frequency. Maybe some site has a fourier spx? Do you know one?

I have found the objective picture given by signatures very useful already, helping me determine bearishness when others are bullish.

[random] 13/12/2002 23:18

energyi, the steps in the signature can be altered to be in sync with the cycles.

Have you looked at fourier series? They pick out all the cycles perfectly. A chart of the spectrum would give what you want: the energy (!) at each frequency. Maybe some site has a fourier spx? Do you know one?

I have found the objective picture given by signatures very useful already, helping me determine bearishness when others are bullish.

[energyi] 13/12/2002 23:04

R., Some interesting work here.

The Header gets better and better.
But you are missing out CYCLES.

Worth a 1000 words?

and
Here are the thousand words to go with it:

...
Jim Dines Interview
is definitely worth listening to... even twice:

[random] 13/12/2002 22:58

NDX signature now .....

-+U----

if 980 is broken, then

------- comes after the retracement.

[indalo] 13/12/2002 22:50

lol...don't think it's about gold as such Ash, more about demand full stop!

Besides..not much gold in their junk anyway


No one listens hey?...tut tut...having read your analysis on RED, and your bullish Dow thread, (comedy timing?!) I'm not suprised!!!

best regards,

[random] 13/12/2002 22:29

energyi,

r u out there?

[mr ashley james] 13/12/2002 21:49

Goodfella,

I just knew retail gold demand was drying up.

No one listens.

Oh well.

Have a good weekend

Cheers

Ash

[dan de lion] 13/12/2002 20:09

There is no such thing as a bad Xmas, I was in the retail trade and was always worried that Xmas wouldn`t happen, but it does, people throw caution to the wind and are determined to enjoy Xmas no matter what, the plastic will just have to stretch!!!.

[indalo] 13/12/2002 12:45

Verger, I used to purely trade in fundamental analysis...I now use charts to help time my investment decisions, though I haven't been holding any shares for several months...just trading short term.

SIG's valuation is based on its growth record. The dividend is under 3%, so isn't particularly attractive. Sales growth is now slowing and may actually be negative, therefore it doesn't deserve a growth rating.

Earnings are very much biased towards the Xmas period, and with the US consumer becoming more price oriented, I can't see sales being very good this year. It would only take a 10% fall in sales to massacre their bottom line. Retail figures from the US point to very slow growth, and that is despite huge sales BEFORE Xmas, mainly on expensive items like cars, and durable goods. I can't see SIG slapping 50% off tags on their stuff!..and if they do it will mean slimmer profits.

I don't know how SIG will perform over the long term, but if they aren't growing, they will have to retrench and focus on short term profitability at the expense of future growth (ie.new store openings etc..).

The analyst at SG who penciled in £185m pre-tax, is IMO completely mad, and is ignoring the obvious warning signs. How he can assume a bumper Xmas is beyond me.

Finally, management have NOT been buying shares recently...and not since the warning. If they piled in now, I would think twice about my short.

If the market rallies strongly they may get dragged up, but I can't see them making any real progress until the outcome of their crucial Xmas season is known, since this is where they make most of their profits.

So like Smokey, I'll use the chart for now.

[random] 13/12/2002 11:43

gold $350 looks on the cards. The years of weaknesss of gold look more like a multi year pullback. To think the UK sold at $280. doh ...... I always thought treasuries selling gold to buy currency sounded dodgy. It is now looking like a terrible trade.

The equity markets look like they have largely ignored the rise in quality. This can only mean one thing. A big tank is due.

Also, tbond has been very strong. The flight to quality has started, and seems to be leading the exodus from equities. ie tbond keeps on gaining while the indices trade out a bear flag.


IF the drop in futures holds, then the 3 day uptrend will be broken, and we are also testing the 1 day uptrend from the october lows. If this goes, the weekley, daily, and hourly trends will all be DOWN. This is exactly the trend signature for going very SHORT.

I am currently using a notation to review trends and waves.

For anyone interested it works like this:

1. Review the charts for as many time scales as possible.
2. Write down signals in each time span, longest span on left, shortest on right.
3. Symbols used
+ uptrend (HH, HL)
- downtrend (LL, LH)
= sideways
c consolidation (LH, HL)
D, d double top, bottom
T, t triple top, bottom
H, h, head and shoulder, inverse ....
u unstable triangle (HH, LL)

4. Usage:
the leading terms signify the overall market conditions.

Currently equities are -+, which signifies a bear market rally.
A bullish rally is +++, a bullish pull back, +-

Yesterdays open was an interesting -+ccc-= a consolidation pattern in a bear rally.

I now calculate the signature before even thinking of trading.

IF the daily trend does switch to -, then this will give us a superposition of trends which is likely to drive the market down very fast.
Ie. signature is ------ .....

These signatures bring out some of the detail of EW, without requiring complicated and ambiguous wave counts.

example gold sig is:

(day, hour, 30 min, 15, 5, 1)

+++++- ...... a short term pullback in a primary BULL market.
A buying op should be marked with something like +++hhb, and then shorter term signals can be used for accurate timing.

With a longer time span, the gold sig is more like +-+++++-, because of the multi year pullback. This could easily turn to ++++++++, in which case the price could spike up dramatically. The concept is that waves of different cycles interfere constructively or destructively. If all align, the movement is constructive in the direction of the trend. If trends are out of phase, they produce chaotic moves, with no clear trend. The greater the majority of -'s or +'s in a signature, the stronger the signal.

Any signals can be incorporated in the signature, with UPPER CASE = bear. lower case = bull.

Reading left to right gives long term signals.

Right to left gives short term signals.

Any views?