Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[w.bramley] 13/12/2002 11:21

patel investor. Does this help? (from Sharescope)

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

MACD is an oscillator that is calculated by taking the difference between two exponential moving averages. You can set the time periods for these yourself. A signal line is also plotted to help with interpretation. You can also click the tick box to show a histogram of the line movements.

Traditionally, when the MACD is below the origin the share is considered to be over-sold, and when above the origin to be overbought. When the MACD is oversold (i.e. below the origin 'blue line' ) and crosses above the signal graph (red line) then it is generally believed to be an indication to buy, while an overbought MACD (i.e. above the origin) crossing to below the signal graph is generally considered to be signal to sell. The further from the origin, the stronger the signal is considered.

[patel investor] 13/12/2002 10:20

anerone can tell me what are the blue and red lines for on the mcad?

[random] 12/12/2002 23:36

UK is beginning to look oversold. The US still has some way to go.

VIX SAR says stay short of stock, but is close to getting stopped out, near VIX = 30.

[smoketrader] 12/12/2002 23:33

I don't do fundamentals so I couldn't tell you. But in a way, that's beside the point. All I'm saying is what I believe it will be valued at soon based on the chart. Unless there's a reason why it's impossible for it to trade below its current market cap then I'm going to stick with the charts.

Technical analysis is just a study of price action and doesn't necessarily require any knowledge of the underlying security. The basic assumption is that everything currently known about the share is already reflected in the price.

[verger] 12/12/2002 23:22

OK, a few of you are interested in charts. Don't shoot me, but I've always been sceptical about charts, unless they can be backed up with reasons. So, please could our chart followers tell us why, based on prospects, performance and trading, Signet should be valued at 60p. I'm not being sarcastic; I really want to know!

[smoketrader] 12/12/2002 23:05

A flag near or below the bottom of a trading range is usually a bearish signal. Assuming it doesn't re-enter the trading range I expect a sharp fall from here soon. The flag points to a target of around 56p.

[indalo] 12/12/2002 22:43

Well I'm short and looking for 60p over the next few weeks.

The chart shows 75p has been very strong support having bounced off that level three times since August. That has now been broken and 75 is now strong resistance. The rectangle formation between Aug-Dec suggests a further fall to 57p.

A close above 75p on good volume IMO will negate this..so my stop is 77....Good risk/reward from here on the short side.

As the price moves through 70p I would expect a flood of distressed sellers..momentum will do the rest.

[bantam175] 12/12/2002 22:17

Heard today that sales were actually up 0.3% for November in US, not down at all? Anyone heard anything about this?

I agree 90p in next 2-3 weeks anyway. Shorters trying for 59-60p are going to get seriously burnt fingers IMHO.

[verger] 12/12/2002 12:37

News through on 10th Dec. Todd D Slater at Lazard Freres & Co in USA has moved Signet from hold to buy.

[superpete] 11/12/2002 13:52

Negative press.Share price trading to lower lows. Chart suggests to me possible worse case scenario 50p-60p with 59p posted as possible target price.Watching and waiting until shorters have done their worst.IF 70p broken may consider taking punts in low 60's.I'll bow to goodfella's call on this one.imho.

[louis the bandit] 10/12/2002 17:58

Cheeko,

How are you doing today? I also have been watching these fora few years. Now is the time to buy. Over reaction from the US with jobless rising etc mentioned above. At 73.5 these are a bargain, don't miss the boat everyone, I'm buying more each time they fall back 1 point. Post Christmas they will be 90-110 at worst. Fill your boots

[verger] 10/12/2002 11:43

Shorters, hoping for a drop to the low sixties, must be panicing as the share price begins to recover. I think it's time to buy. Can you imagine Signet not hitting 90p in the next six weeks? That's a 20% gain from present levels. That's a good investment. Or are you greedy!

[random] 08/12/2002 14:57

Markets seemed to have been "stabilised" on friday



From now on, I will take this into account when trading the US. Basically it suggests that it is a forced move to take short profits after a big drop.

Don't fight the fed!

Lots of news to digest .... the change of emphasis in the fed, possible return of 30 year bond, and cut on double divi tax. The likely fed direction blurs the line between the stock market and economy.

[random] 08/12/2002 00:53

I have noticed in the past the accuaracy of using volume histogrammes. Where there are lightly traded regions, away from normal distribution (log price), there are unfilled gaps. Normal trading should normalise the distribution with time.

Conclusion:
The dow is at the top of a lightly traded region: 8450 - 8650. The next bear target is 8100-8300 then 7950 - 8100.

The dow could bounce if the lowest gap is filled, and still be in an uptrend.
However, if the lowest gap fills, and falls, then a retest of the october lows are likely.

A ragged bear flag is forming on the dow, and thus nexts weeks trading is critical. The bulls will be pushing for 9100, 9150. However, the histogram points towards 8450 - 8650. This would increase the size of the already wide expanding trtiangle.

Ftse: Lightly traded region 3800 - 4000. The ftse has raced between these numbers, barely pausing for breath. The falls to the 4K range have produced considerable gaps though, giving possibilies of mark ups. The FTSE, as many have pointed out, has much better value than the US markets. The only difficulty with longing the UK is that it gets marked down every time the US drops. I feel that the bear market has been more severe in the UK. If the US crashes, the FTSE is likely to follow, regardless of "value".

Thus I tend to go short US, and long UK value stocks. It is taking me a while to adjust to the US market though. The US seems to trend much more. The UK seems to fill gaps more often, particularly gaps up. Perhaps this is because buying in the US is a more continous process, whereas in the UK, most trading occurs in the morning, and near close.

[bonsai] 07/12/2002 14:44

having been so bearish on my last posting, I really felt I should hunt around for something bullish to say as,if it is to fulfill its purpose,the market must always be ambiguous.

the sharp pull back on ftse on friday creates that opportunity.
the most bullish elliot wave I can devise is that ftse has completed 5 waves up to 4230 (intra-day) and is now going through an ABC correction.
my reading is that wave 4 ended at 3922 on 26th? October.(intra-day)and that has not yet been broken.
the fall on friday could have been the end of the C leg (or there maybe one more test to come).

although ease of movement favours the bears, the fact is that since early October they have failed to take the market down to new lows and the bulls have stuck it out.And the reversal on friday must have taken most people by surprise,leaving a big Hammer in its wake.(albeit a black hammer)

that sort of thing does happen at the end of C waves.

not that this presages a new bull market. but it does make 4450 a possibility ?

[verger] 06/12/2002 15:54

Article from the Guardian
Jewellery company Signet failed to bounce back from Wednesday's 12.5% fall. Dealers reckon index funds, which have built up big positions in the past few weeks, are being forced to sell because it now appears that Signet will not be promoted to the FTSE 100 at next week's quarterly review.
Also, jobless rise in USA hits spending spree sentiment. However, the impression is that Signet is actually worth more than this knockdown price and will rise again before Christmas. I think so, and have just bought some more.

[robinparrie] 06/12/2002 00:38

Heard on Bloomberg Nov was down on sales in the US and a major investor was "Unwinding his position" so presume it go down further before as you say it will rebound.

[bonsai] 05/12/2002 22:58

I know a euphemism when I see one

















and that definitely isnt one

[patel investor] 05/12/2002 22:24

goodfellow says it will be 59p

[verger] 05/12/2002 22:19

Here's another positive comment:
Mark Charnock, analyst at ING, said: “There has been an argument for a while that consumers have been spending too freely and it is all going to end in tears. There is a fear factor at the moment. Signet is a good business that is well run and has probably been disproportionately hit.”

[big vern] 05/12/2002 21:58

its gonna plop bonsai ..............

[bonsai] 05/12/2002 18:08

other features
hit resistance line otherwise known as a brick wall at 8810 ?
broken trend line from 8315 (nasty)
still gaps to fill lower down (sick feeling in pit of stomach)

at this point I usually say "on the other hand ..."
but would be really scratching until we break up through line from 9040 through 8810.

think Ill put my money on the NFC club that wins through to the superbowl.
the idea that next year could be another down year is grim thinking.

[random] 05/12/2002 17:49

There is a bit of a rally (bear flag?) forming now .... might become more convincing, but looks like light short cover. A medium term downtrend now looks to being tested, with the long term and short term trends firmly down. If all 3 align, the falls could be impulsive.

[bonsai] 05/12/2002 17:28

minor update
fell a bit short of my suggested 9080, but whats the difference between friends.
mea culpa

dark cloud cover still in place on ftse
gap 86/8700 on the dow is now filled although a purist would not agree

waiting for some sort of rally and a retest of the high
may have to wait some time ?