Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

[338] 03/6/2019 16:04

already out and weaker than expected

[qs99] 03/6/2019 15:50

when is PMI number due?

[338] 03/6/2019 15:30

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – June 3, 2019 Forecast
James Hyerczyk
36 minutes ago (Jun 03, 2019 1:51 PM GMT)

Basically, a weaker than expected PMI number could drive prices through $1323.70 with targets at $1332.60 to $1335.70.

[338] 03/6/2019 15:24

US$ index should go further down... meaning PoG going further up...

[juju44] 03/6/2019 15:05

Ridiculous spread

[338] 03/6/2019 15:02

we should get 10p in Q3... :)

[qs99] 03/6/2019 14:50

Needs to break through 10p before I get excited!

[redhill] 03/6/2019 14:17

Level 2 now 4v4 6.00p-6.5p

[qs99] 03/6/2019 13:20

not all is hedged tho?

[redhill] 03/6/2019 13:18

Its not now !

[juju44] 03/6/2019 12:43

Gold rise does little here because of the hedge . Even so it should not be falling

[338] 03/6/2019 10:40

Global Gold Mine Production Facing Headwinds, Could Be Great for Gold Prices
When it comes to the gold market, don’t just look at demand; it’s important to consider supply as well. And as it stands, supply indicates that gold prices could really soar.

Right now, there’s a massive disparity in the gold market. Demand for the yellow precious metal remains strong, but the supply side is struggling. This could mean soaring gold prices.

Here’s what you should know.

What’s the Status of Gold?
Global mine production is facing a lot of headwinds.

For example, in 2018, U.S. gold mines produced 211,000 kilograms (211 tonnes). A year earlier, gold production was 237,000 kilograms (237 tonnes). This represents a year-over-year decline of close to 11%. (Source: “Gold In December 2018,” U.S. Geological Survey, last accessed March 28, 2019.)

Mind you, the U.S. is one of the biggest gold-producing countries in the world.

That is to say nothing about global gold production, where things look dire.

Remember, don’t focus on monthly data: look at the long-term.

Over the past few years, the growth rate in gold mine production has been slowing down at an alarming pace.

Consider this: in 2009, global gold mine production grew 7.51%. But in 2018, global mine production grew just 0.84%. That means the gold production growth rate has stalled close to 90% over nine years. (Source: “Gold Demand Trends Full year and Q4 2018,” World Gold Council, January 31, 2019.)

Where’s Gold Production Headed in 2019 and Beyond?
Looking forward, the gold supply is headed for a lot of trouble. It wouldn’t be surprising if 2019 is the first year when global gold mine production declines.

Why? Because mining companies around the world haven’t spent money on exploration. In fact, they have seriously lagged. After all, exploration is an investment in future production.

As gold prices were declining between 2013 and 2015, miners disregarded exploration and focused on remaining afloat.

What’s also interesting is that the mining companies are doing something that’s not really helping supply: mergers and acquisitions.

For example, not too long ago, Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) merged with Randgold Resources, while Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) purchased Goldcorp Inc. And there’s a lot of noise in the sector that more moves like these could be ahead.

Here’s the issue: larger/giant companies are simply taking over relatively smaller miners.

From a business perspective, it makes sense. It’s a great move for Barrick Gold to buy Randgold. The company gets Randgold’s production, reserves, and resources. It’s just a transfer, but no real exploration was done.

Is Gold Supply in Trouble?
In the coming years, I am convinced that there will be some sort of shortage in the gold market. We could see a scenario play out where there’s a lot of gold available on paper, but it’s difficult to get the bullion itself.

When that happens, gold prices could skyrocket very quickly.

I see 2019 to be a great year for the yellow precious metal. Current supply is certainly making a strong case for it.

hxxps://www.lombardiletter.com/gold-prices-gold-shortage-could-be-ahead/31735/

[338] 03/6/2019 10:38

gold supply shortage is about 100,000 ton per year and the demand keeps growing, whilst total growth of global production declines

[338] 03/6/2019 10:26

If the gold price can break above the psychologically important resistance zone of $1,360-1,380, then a gold price of over $1,800 seems within reach in the medium term,

[qs99] 03/6/2019 09:50

CEY moving ahead v. sharply on rise in POG. GLA

[redhill] 03/6/2019 09:10

Echnaton1

I believe we shall find out one way or the other in the next few months from information i have read. I'm sure the situation can't continue and hopefully some provision is made in the 19/20 TZ budget for VAT refunds which hasn't been the case in the last two years.

[echnaton1] 03/6/2019 09:06

I sincerely hope you are right Redhill but from an auditing point of view the procedure is faulty unless there is a clear undertaking in writing by a party empowered to engage the government. Not so likely.

[338] 03/6/2019 08:59

I agree Redhill, Vat refunds should be given to all businesses in Tanzania so they can conduct more business activities which means generate more taxes to the government. This is what has been suggested by IMF

[redhill] 03/6/2019 08:46

Echnaton 1

Whilst i understand your comments ,what you have missed regarding this ,is the fact that no VAT has been refunded to any Company in Tanzania in the last 18 months.

This is not just a mining Companies problem but a backlog of VAT refunds across a whole spectrum of businesses in TZ.

Therefore and unless Mining Companies are singled out your argument does not hold water.

Shanta have been advised by various ministers that they are eligible for VAT refunds.

[juju44] 03/6/2019 08:41

Dead money here .Has been for years

[redhill] 03/6/2019 08:39

338

1 MM moved down but spread improved . 6.05p-6.10p on dummy trades.

[echnaton1] 03/6/2019 08:39

I think you have a combination of the TZ government in general not having been very business friendly and a current policy (since 2017) which seems to provide a valid reason for not refunding VAT in Shanta's case. The government is aware that by applying the rule from 2017 taxation is way higher in Tanzania than anywhere else for mining companies. There are some timid signs that there will be at least partial backtracking on the 2017 legislation. Before that happens we are probably pretty much stuck - and as a consequence have great problems in making a profit and generating free cashflow.

I don't think things are hopeless: after all the policy enacted, namely that if you use input factors with VAT in order to produce gold doré you don't get a refund, amounts to a fiscal policy which taxes away far too high a level of profits and makes activities so unattractive that investors will give up: the government even if moved in part by opportunism is smart enough to see that if investors get no return taxable income streams ultimately dry up.

For the auditors to leave things as they stand amounts to believing that the policy will be changed retroactively: that is a stretch by anybody's imagination. I think the auditors are exposed on this issue, very much uncomfortably so. When change comes - and I think it will - it will not be retroactive.

I differ from AG's thinking in that I don't believe that what we have to deal with is a bunch of crooks but rather policy makers that based on maybe dogmatic beliefs or severe budgetary constraints have been led to make the wrong decisions. How long it will take for them to make amends remains to be seen. I guess it depends on how severe the problems are that the policy of 2017 has caused.

[338] 03/6/2019 08:28

PoG will hit $1350 soon

Bloodbath Looks Imminent - Full Defensive Mode...