Science In Sport Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 15/3/2016 08:24

They are indeed David. All coming together nicely.

Kind regards,
GHF

[davidlloyd] 15/3/2016 08:00

Would have thought this have got a bit more of a following here. Must assume most on board are the silent types, happy holding for the future.....:-)
DL

[amoore70] 05/2/2016 12:39

Hmmm up 7%. Do you know why?

[davidlloyd] 05/2/2016 11:25

Aye Aye.....

DL

[amoore70] 20/1/2016 08:28

Yes, regret buying into these. Will continue to hold though.

[skyracer] 20/1/2016 07:57

Only £9.45m (£8.03m)?

Presumably still loss-making. Not exactly "very strong".

"momentum has carried into 2016." Emmm we are only two weeks into the New Year!

Struggling to see how this will ever make money as it will constantly require high product development and marketing costs without being able to charge a premium price against massive competition.

[amoore70] 13/10/2015 15:28

Anyone know why the big drop today? Can't see any news anywhere.

[yump] 16/8/2015 17:48

I was pretty disappointed by DGS to say the least - a 'victim' of their own expansion aims at the same time as their main customer(s) having the merger wobbly. Felt it was one of my more secure investments even if the price got overblown a bit, seemed a secure business and valuation back at the float price.

Partly responsible for my comment on here about floated companies - they often seem to be transferring the risk to new investors, which is fair enough, but I thought I had assessed DGS reasonably well.

Perhaps they'll get back on track quite suddenly, in which case its a bargain.

However, I've been put off properly now, by the very poor information flow - as in more or less non-existent.

I think if they'd been really successful in expanding into new markets in Europe they would have been blowing their own trumpet. But nothing much reported.

Still got my original float stake as may as well sit on it - no chance to get out without big loss.

Recently took a small loss on KLBT as well - loss of confidence in anything managed overseas really.

Leaves me just in the home-grown ones: IDEA, INSE etc.

[glasshalfull] 13/8/2015 11:34

Yump - Good to hear from you & thanks for your views. You are quite correct on the marketing spend & I believe it's working as they increase stockists and drive volume of sales to create further efficiencies.

Perhaps they will be an acquirer...bolt on in U.S. would be the next market to target I'd venture.

My earlier post was partly tongue in cheek as I'm sure you're aware, but I still reckon that they'll be taken out in due course, once they've extended the brand and product range with one of the large suitors looking to take a share of the ever expanding endurance niche which has appeared during recent years.

While I'm here, do you have any views on DGS? Look better value at current price following the last trading update IMHO.

Regards,
GHF

[yump] 10/8/2015 13:58

Thought I'd post this - might help a bit. These are monthly UK searches according to Google keyword tool (which use frequently for Adwords campaigns).

Usually take them as a very rough guide for targeting - they're known to be a bit rough and ready in absolute terms, but useful for relative stuff.

The SIS keyword is probably overstated by quite a bit as there are various other searches for websites / businesses that include 'SIS'.

sis 14800
powerbar 1600
high5 1300
zipvit 8100
torq 1600
clif 480
science in sport 2900
mulebar 210
torq energy 590
sis gel 260
sis energy 260
torq gel 210
zipvit gel 40
zipvit energy 10

[hubrad] 10/8/2015 13:48

Haha.. I nearly spat my lunch out there, yump, at the 1230 post! I usually view such slanty negativity as a sign there's something here worth hanging on for. Onwards and upwards!

[yump] 10/8/2015 13:41

GHF

I don't post much now, but as you're here, I thought I'd mention the reason why I didn't invest was that from what I can see the market is awash with gels and bars, energy & protein, plus other variations.

So I came to the conclusion that it will take SIS a huge blast of marketing expenditure to gain and then maintain any dominance.

Bit of gut-feeling really, as I earn from this market partly by highlighting discounted deals on these products from different producers... Zipvit, Torq, Powerbar, High5, CNP, Clif to name the main ones.

I think they are all smaller volume than SIS with less distribution though.
Perhaps I'm too close. Started cooking up my own anyway using the cereals at the bottom of the packets - more fun and cheaper than £1+ per bar.

If they can maintain dominance there's certainly a big margin to work with.

I can imagine SIS buying up others, rather than SIS being bought itself.

[amoore70] 10/8/2015 12:53

Anybody interested in SIS please ignore Buywell3's post. It is totally illrelevant and a waste of everyone's time.

[buywell3] 09/8/2015 09:46

It's quiet cos it's loss making , the products are being heavily discounted and now this



Location Location Location ... is key to buying propertty

Research Research Research ..... is key to share buying

I am assuming most holders here don't do any so I thought I would help










I think you guys need to look at the recent data and adverse press comment regarding protein based supplements and eating/metal/other disorders now affecting men in particular


Note the damage to kidney and liver comment in this piece to day




One would imagine this won't help sales much

Just a few of the protein products made



If you look at the range of protein based supplement products that provexis are making , then over 50% come into this category

Many are already being heavily discounted






I assume you guys do a bit of research , so many of you will know of the problems and health issues concerning the use of carnitine



''
There is no scientific data to support the bloated claims about l-carnitine’s fat-burning capacity, or its mythical ability to spur peak athletic performance.


On the contrary, l-carnitine supplements have potential side effects such as nausea and vomiting, cramps, and diarrhea. Carnitine supplements can even wreck your social life, because taking 3 grams a day can produce a fishy body odor.

People with kidney disease or seizure disorders should exercise particular caution with carnitine supplements or energy drinks that contain it, like Monster Energy or 5-hour Energy. That’s because carnitine can cause muscle weakness in people with kidney disease, and seizures in people who have a seizure disorder. ''


One would imagine this might be another area the press will pick up at some point




''Healthy children and adults do not need to consume carnitine from food or supplements, as the liver and kidneys produce sufficient amounts from the amino acids lysine and methionine to meet daily needs [1-3]. The Food and Nutrition Board (FNB) of the National Academies (formerly National Academy of Sciences) reviewed studies on the functions of carnitine in 1989 and concluded it was not an essential nutrient [3]. The FNB has not established Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs)—including a recommended dietary allowance (RDA)—for carnitine [4].''


The use of carnitine in supplements is a waste of time

''Athletic performance

Some athletes take carnitine to improve performance. However, twenty years of research finds no consistent evidence that carnitine supplements can improve exercise or physical performance in healthy subjects—at doses ranging from 2–6 grams/day administered for 1 to 28 days [9-11]. (The total body content of carnitine is about 20 grams in a man weighing 155 pounds, almost all of it in the skeletal muscle [11].) For example, carnitine supplements do not appear to increase the body's use of oxygen or improve metabolic status when exercising, nor do they necessarily increase the amount of carnitine in muscle [10].''


Regarding any health benefits from taking supplements with carnitine

''research, however, has raised concerns about the cardiovascular effects of chronic exposure to carnitine. A 2013 study that included both rodents and 2,595 humans undergoing elective cardiac evaluation found that L-carnitine is metabolized by intestinal microbiotia to trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO), a proatherogenic substance that is associated with cardiovascular disease risk [24]. Due to differences in intestinal bacteria composition, omnivorous study participants produced more TMAO than vegans or vegetarians following consumption of L-cartinine. The study also found dose-dependent associations between fasting plasma L-carnitine concentration and risk of coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, and overall cardiovascular disease, but only among participants with concurrently high TMAO levels. The researchers noted that these findings could partly explain the link between high levels of consumption of red meat (a rich source of carnitine) and increased cardiovascular disease risk. More research is needed to fully understand the effects of carnitine on cardiovascular health.''

'' Are there health risks from too much carnitine?

At doses of approximately 3 g/day, carnitine supplements can cause nausea, vomiting, abdominal cramps, diarrhea, and a "fishy" body odor [1-2]. Rarer side effects include muscle weakness in uremic patients and seizures in those with seizure disorders.

Some research indicates that intestinal bacteria metabolize carnitine to form a substance called TMAO that might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease [24]. This effect appears to be more pronounced in people who consume meat than in vegans or vegetarians. The implications of these findings are not well understood and require more research.''

''People with the following conditions should talk to their provider before taking carnitine:

Peripheral vascular disease
High blood pressure
Liver disease from alcoholism (cirrhosis)
Diabetes
Kidney disease
History of seizures''


Do any SiS products use it ?

[glasshalfull] 26/7/2015 11:02

SIS

Concur with above posts, SIS is developing very well indeed. Both management & employees deserve a great deal of credit for this yet unheralded growth story.

Also surprised at the lack of posts on the thread as I thought the publicity generated from Bradley Wiggins hour attempt (& record) where SIS were offering 300,000 free gels, would have resulted in some posts or interest over here. In the end the company were overwhelmed with the unprecedented demand.



So, the trading update indicated H1 2015 revenue +19% or +£800k on H1 2014, when they were up against strong comparators having geared up for the Yorkshire leg of the Tour de France the previous year (signed up distributors early 2014).

Importantly the growth emanated from e-commerce & international markets. I use their products & impressed with the development in their own website this last year, delivery times and product quality. I've also qualified for their customer loyalty programme which offers greater discounts based on total overall spend (Silver, Gold & Platinum status in their Loyalty programme entitles the customer to a 5, 10 or 15% discount respectively, on each purchase). Importantly, growth in their own website will also result in greater margins.



As well as UK cycling stores around the UK, you may have noticed SIS products in Sainsbury, Waitrose and now Asda stores. Internationally they are also in 800+ Shimano stores around the world and new distributors have been appointed in other international territories.

Product range also continues to expand with electrolyte gels coming on stream...raspberry or lemon+mint anyone ???



& we also had the launch of whey protein products in the last 6months & I envisage their protein offering may well develop further in the coming year.

With the growth in e-commerce, greater number of channels and products I would hazard that we'll see growth levels accelerate in H2 2015. As an avid viewer of the Tour on ITV 4 this year, I've been struck with the SIS gel advert by Sir Chris Hoy continually these last 3-weeks, so clearly the company are continuing to invest strongly on the advertising & promotion of the brand.

How does this translate into valuation?

The company continue to invest in growth, so Cenkos have indicated a small loss at EBITDA level this year of £76k - so pretty much breakeven - before moving into profit in 2016 with £0.5m EBITDA forecast.

Market cap is now £18m with £2m net cash at end of 2014. With a strong & experienced management team in place (that developed Lucozade Sport) & considerable opportunities across the global sports nutrition markets, long term prospects are excellent. I recently read a broker comment that suggested M&A activity in sports nutrition has resulted in acquisition valuations of 4x+ revenue.

SIS are now one of the leading sports nutrition brands in the endurance sector (rather than the crowded muscle development sector) and with boom in cycling, marathons and ultra-running, triathlons, etc, then I don't believe it fanciful to consider that SIS could fit the criteria of a large competitor swooping for them to expand their endurance range...so 4x + revenue takeout may be relevant in their case.

Time for pure conjecture on my part.

With SIS revenues of £9.6m forecast in 2015, rising to £11m in 2016 (which I think will be beaten as explained above) this could lead to an acquisitor valuing the company in the ball-park of say £40-£55m, particularly with the endurance segment growing fast & based on my rationale in the last paragraph.

So, that leads to a valuation (based on M&A sector valuation remember) of a shareprice between 155p - 215p (give or take a couple of pence).

Needless to say, I've been a strong buyer of the shares prior to, and on confirmation of trading.

Please DYOR & remember my attempts at placing a value on the company are simple musings of what may be achievable on M&A activity.

Happy to read any other views. There's not much traffic to wade through on this thread...certainly nothing compared to the crowds on Alpe d'Huez yesterday!
(V well done to Froomy for all he's had to endure from spectators and media these last 3-weeks!).

Kind regards,
GHF

[tonytyke2] 24/7/2015 10:00

Hi David, Agree entirely. They have imo great products in a great market to be in. I topped up this week following imo further strong growth messages. I am glad though it continues to be quiet on here, whilst I continue to increase my holding.

[davidlloyd] 21/7/2015 14:06

Surprised that it is so quiet here. Things coming together very nicely and a good growth story. Keep on doing what you are doing SIS.....


DL

[lafin] 09/10/2014 16:47

RNS today
Downing increase holding
Now have 5,103,651 shares which is 20.26%.

[lafin] 02/10/2014 10:05

Directors buy.
"The Company has been notified that on 30th September 2014 Vivienne Sparks, the Financial Director of the Company, purchased 19,477 ordinary shares of 10 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a purchase price of 76.75 pence per Ordinary Share.



Following the purchase, Vivienne Sparks is beneficially and non-beneficially interested in 19,477 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.1 per cent. of the current issued share capital of the Company."

[lafin] 30/9/2014 08:57

AGM today

From AGM statement
"We are pleased to report another period of strong sales growth in the six months to 30 September 2014, with sales up 23 per cent compared with the same period last year at approximately GBP4.92 million. This growth reflects strong sales across our whole product range and across all our sales channels." etc

[frogboy11] 18/9/2014 20:56

SiS invites Sir Chris Hoy to ride Cycling Weekly Box Hill Original Sportive - PXS, SIS News
- Today, 8:52 PM