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Savannah Petrol Share Discussion Threads
Showing 176 to 200 of 200 messages
|We should all be much happier in a couple of quarters' time. But that's just the start here.|
|Bought in here for upcoming campaign looks good|
|Divmad, I already have a position here and anticipate an opportunity to shift much more in a few month time.|
|Why? You've had six months of flat/weakness to establish a good position here.|
|Shush I want this to be off the radar for another three months ;)
Certainly plenty of multi-bag potential :)|
|My current view.
2185 mmbls risked recoverable which is likely to increase after the current 3D programme providing more upside.
95% interest = 2.075 billion bls.
Govt share of 15-20% across all 4 licences.
Therefore at least 1.71 billion bls net potential (pre any farm out).
Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net.
So using those figures -
1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone.
Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects.
Should a 50% farmout occur -
A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution.
Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You don’t get much better than that.
Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate.
If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling.
Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT).
Savp floated at 58p and last funding at 38p (while the share price was 23p) so that's only a 4 -5 upside for those substantial investors.
A further opportunity is this, (in this current year) - ie Broker note mentions that ‘NNPCs exploration arm (FES) on the Nigerian side has received approval for a very large 5,000 km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and a 6 well drilling campaign. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding on its portion of the rift basin. In exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs’. This could yet prove significant value in a success case.|
|30p now being paid and NT to buy.Get over 30p and think plain sailing to 40s 50s.|
|Starting to get everything in place for the campaign, great things to come this year;
Savannah Petroleum is pleased to confirm the appointment of Antoine Richard as VP Operations. Mr Richard has over 20 years' experience working for both major (Total) and independent (Perenco) oil & gas companies worldwide, including 10 years' experience in West Africa. He has a strong operational background (seismic acquisition in desert environments, management of drilling campaigns, onshore facilities design and operation, production optimisation, etc.). His previous positions within Perenco included Global HSE Manager and General Manager roles for Congo, Egypt and Venezuela.|
|Maybe merging with SOU?|
|Stifel weren't involved in the $40m 38p placing 6 months ago (when the share price was 23p), but did act as joint book runners in the $36m 38p placing in July 2015.
With the $12m revolving loan facility put in place last month - said to be for amongst other things, potential acquisitions, and now the appointment of Stifel who also specialise in acquisitions/mergers as part of their business, who knows what additionally may be on the cards.|
|It's usually around funding.|
|Whats the benefits of having a joint broker right now? Anyone had experience of such before?|
|Could the loan be to fund SAVP's share of the proposed export pipeline?|
|Due to one of my co's operating in the security sector, I receive each day a security notice from the Nigerian government stating exactly what attacks have taken place, where the security risk is heightened and how/what they have done to curb terrorism in the area..
Todays highlights include:
Increased security measures in Adamawa & other outward areas states following suicide attacks.
Government & militants are now in dialogue with each other following the NDA/NDGJM pipeline attacks in the Delta, Rivers & Bayelsa states.
Nothing specific today or this week and the problems have been decreasing since the elections have been held.|
|Very interesting, BUT.....
As I live in France (for now), I've heard all about very effective Fr. military action in Mali, Niger, Chad against Bokoharam. I like the SAVP story........ as long as the French stay there! They should, as Niger is a critical source of uranium & 80% of Fr elec is nuclear! We know Nigeria is also a risk country, as well as chronically corrupt.
In other words - high geopolitical risk.
I could loosen up some cash for SAVP, but NOT by selling any SOU!|
|With any loan, no lender would enter into an agreement without firstly completing their own DD to ensure you can pay the monies back in full, including interest.
Other positive is that the BoD's chose not to seek an equity based fund raising instead choosing to settle in cash.|
|$12m 3year revolving loan facility available to SAVP announced this am.
Why would you borrow this and potentially draw it down if you had no income or way of paying it back ? Could a future farmin payment cover it or perhaps indeed a stake in a producing asset or discovery ?
Puts their cash availability at $50m net since 8th July ($40m gross raised 8th July at 38p over-subscribed).
They were looking to do a potential farmout of up to $200m. "Discussions with potential farm-in partners ongoing, any transaction expected to be announced prior to commencement of drilling activity" - 27-9-16.
As yet they still have 100% of the asset with a gross 2.185 billion bls *RISKED* recoverable and a high COS estimate based on the Chinese finding over 925 mmbo P2 on the adjacent and interspersed acreage that SAVP holds.|
|You have to wonder what is cooking to start the clock on a three year loan now, I would have thought we were still some way off running out of cash so some sort of purchase or joint venture ?|
|After a convo yesterday and then looking into SAVP last night/this morning, I bought a couple of times this morning although one of the buys appears to be reported as a sell.
Will look more over the coming days but at first sight, looks a good buy and an exciting couple of years ahead for investors.
|Looks to be a great buy at these levels.|
Upbeat note out by Mirabaud this morning. They have maintained their BUY recommendation on the stock, with a target price of 125p/shr, almost 5x the current share price.
Savannah Petroleum – Good vibrations
Savannah hosted an analyst site visit to Niger last week, during which it reported on recent operational progress in the Agadem basin and unveiled a strategic tie-up with the Nigerian state affiliates NNPC and NNDC. A busy few months lie ahead, with talks to sign a rig for exploration drilling expected to draw to a close in January, setting the countdown to the company’s first exploration wells. The fully funded, multi well drilling programme will likely kick off with Damissa (93 mmbbls prospective resource), which is expected to spud in late Q1 / early Q2. Meanwhile the ongoing 3D seismic programme should complete early next year, ready for analysis by the end of Q2. Talks are well advanced with regards to a new export route option to a major, under-utilised refinery in northern Nigeria, and even the possibility of trucked early production with attractive economics. The Chad Cameroon route remains on the cards, however alternative options can only help in driving forward a final decision, and, indeed may help galvanise the ongoing farm out negotiations.|
Looks like Savannah is hosting a retail call for shareholders at 11am on the 1st December.
If you would like to participate in the conference call please contact Jimmy Lea at Celicourt Communications via email at [email protected]|
Please see below a link to a Proactive Investors interview of Savannah's CEO, Andrew Knott.