Salamander Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 25/11/2014 11:44

Ed - OPHR is hugely vulnerable right now.

I also don't think the OPEC decision will do much to change the investment proposition - I don't think most businesses look that short term.

[ed 123] 25/11/2014 11:42

Agree that 121p is history. However CEPSA were thinking of offering that amount (plus an exploration success element). As things are looking with the Ophir share price, CEPSA could easily succeed with 110p cash and no need for an exploration bonus, imo.

As we know, OPEC meeting on Thursday. Assuming OPEC's deliberations don't result in further slide in the oil price, then perhaps take Friday and the weekend for CEPSA or anyone else to come to a decision and seek the opinions of the larger Salamander share holders.

I'm thinking we may get another announcement on Monday. If not, then we're stuck with the Ophir offer.

I've been looking at Ophir. If they lose Salamander too after the failed tie up with Premier, maybe Ophir becomes vulnerable to a bid? Trade sale of their assets, plus the cash they hold, worth ???

[richardbroughton] 25/11/2014 11:09

Agreed, gap's too big and OPHR share price is not looking solid even at this level, could drop further making the gap bigger although I suspect that 121 is history now. Hope I'm wrong.

[ed 123] 24/11/2014 17:00

Salamander closed at 94.75p or equivalent to 95.5p based on Ophir's close. CEPSA had contemplated offering 121p cash + up to 24p conditional.

To me that's too big a gap. Surely someone will offer a deal in between these two levels? Even if CEPSA itself returned with 110p cash, it may be sufficient.

Salamander Energy, 8 years after its 250p IPO, and 2 years after it raised at 130p, is close to being swallowed up for 95p-ish per share?

[loglorry1] 24/11/2014 10:42

If you have a lot of faith in OPHR and in particular LNG then its a good offer. I'm not that bullish on LNG but there are many that are. As long as LNG stacks up OPHR have some amazing assets and should do very well. This obviously begs the question as to why OPHR don't just stick with what they know. If their assets are as good as they say they could close their own discount to NAV buy buying back stock with their large cash pile.

I do realise its a paper offer but I'm wondering if OPHR have gone a bit cool on their own assets and so are looking for something else.

[ed 123] 24/11/2014 10:41

A number of possibilities remain open here. The most likely, imo, is that the agreement with Ophir completes. Atm, it is the only offer and has 27% support.

RichardBroughton. Agree the share price performance has been abysmal. I've bought some more Salamander this morning - no advice intended. I think there'll be a better offer. It's a gamble but the risk/reward at 92.5p was OK for me.

[richardbroughton] 24/11/2014 10:34

Absolute disaster, took up the rights and going to lose a packet, what a shambles! There has got to be some incentive for the Directors if they are not getting cushy numbers at OPHR. Question is, as I am well underwater here do I take the loss or go with OPHR and hope their own dismal performance improves? When will they make profit? SMDR have proved how easy it is blow money on dusters and uncommercial wells while rewarding management handsomely. regards Richard

[nigelpm] 24/11/2014 10:34

Sona could always come back to SMDR with a better offer for the 40%.

[puffintickler] 24/11/2014 09:56

Sona have no reason to be gutted, they can just make an offer, and probably will, but probably less than they were discussing before. All that could prevent them making another offer would be the idea of being seen to be losing face, but I think they are bright enough to realise that the opposite would be true.

[speedsgh] 24/11/2014 09:56

The single silver lining of this stitch up is that none of the SMDR executive directors appear to be joining the OPHR board. One can only hope that upon completion, the SMDR executive directors will be taken outside, tied to a post + shot at dawn. OK, may be a tad drastic but they don't deserve much better.

[specul82] 24/11/2014 09:43

Agreed this is a shocking offer shareholders let down badly Sona must be really gutted about this deal I am surprised if they don't counter offer

[apatel21] 24/11/2014 09:30

Crazy how this BOD can recommend an offer that is c25% less than another proposal This is brazen self interest over shareholders interests What are the non-execs doing ?

[ed 123] 24/11/2014 09:06

Yes. Also, CEPSA could come back with a cash offer of, say, 108p.

I doubt that Ophir would better that.

CEPSA could get this for 10% less than they were previously thinking of offering and no need for an exploration success bonus either.

[nigelpm] 24/11/2014 09:01

Should be a decent arb here for a while buying SMDR and selling OPHR - could of course go wrong if OPHR pull out or don't get shareholder approval hence the gap.

[alyo] 24/11/2014 08:28

Below 93p because of the Ophir share price which is neg

[puffintickler] 24/11/2014 08:13

A bit of free money to pick up here, can still buy below 93p.

[jotoha2] 24/11/2014 07:57

Clearly corruption is winning the game at the moment , let's see what the Spaniards are up to!

[alyo] 24/11/2014 07:50

Game over . These should open at 96p

[ed 123] 24/11/2014 07:36

It's as expected.

Ophir have the support of around 27% of Salamander shareholders so far.

At 97p or so equivalent, the door is open to another bidder, imo.

May be a short delay anyway if anyone else is interested but, with the OPEC meeting so close, 'whoever' may delay to see that outcome.

The last raising was at 130p in 2012, I think. Not a good deal for those who stumped up. However, for those who bought very recently, it can get them out at a profit.

Whatever, the end is nigh for Salamander.

[alyo] 24/11/2014 07:18

97.7p equivalent . Terrible offer

[loldemort] 23/11/2014 01:16

At the moment I'd take a cash offer a couple of pence above the value of the Ophir offer, just in order to ensure that the little band of reverse Merry Men on our board got to lose their jobs.

[ed 123] 22/11/2014 11:28

There's also a piece summarising the current situation in the FT.



The FT writer is better at his arithmetic than the Guardian writer. The latter quoted a value of 103p per share with Ophir at 169.9p.

[ed 123] 22/11/2014 11:15

There's some comment in today's Guardian on the proposed takeover of Salamander by Ophir.



Should be an announcement on Monday. Other parties then have a limited time period to submit a counter offer. The formal offer would release CEPSA from its 'no intention to bid' position.

With the Ophir offer currently worth 97.2p (170p x 0.5719), there's plenty of room for a counter. I wonder if a new party might emerge? CNOOC perhaps?

[speedsgh] 21/11/2014 16:31

from Malcy's Blog today...

Ophir/Salamander: As Elvis would have said, surrender… -

Some stories are so implacable that they come under the heading of ‘you couldnt make it up’ and the Salamander story over the last few months has been just that. The company has gone from wanting to sell part of an asset, to possibly being in play, to reverting to its asset sale and now seeing a reasonable bid go up in smoke, leaving the Ophir bid to be the only game in town. Questions need to be asked, if I was a Salamander shareholder I would want to know how last Friday was such a mess and how the 121p plus a contingent value right disappeared over the weekend, also given that the SONA deal was apparently still on the cards, how come that is now not preferable to the bid from Ophir which is worth 96.2p at this moment. Anyway they say one should always play with the hands you are dealt with and now, assuming that there isnt another bidder in the wings, Salamander shareholders must look at being part of Ophir.

The new company will range from Africa to Asia and one has to think that the Salamander assets may well be worked harder and more efficiently than before, Ophir will provide expertise in all areas to complement the relationships that Salamander has developed and for example there may be some discretionary spend achieved in Thailand as well. Overall this is not the result that Salamander shareholders wanted or expected, it appears that just when the board decided to cash out most of the options had mysteriously disappeared. But those holders who opt to remain as part of Ophir should benefit in the longer term and I suspect that there will be more consolidation in the sector, remember, not all Ophirs are Lounge Lizards…

[nigelpm] 21/11/2014 15:50

Might be value in selling something to make way for this?

I've swapped some Soco for it.