Salamander Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 05/12/2014 10:37

What could be behind this fall is the question?

The price suggests SONA and OPHR have walked and CEPSA are totally uninterested.

What chance of this? Pretty small I'd argue but market says it already knows.

[nigelpm] 05/12/2014 10:35

Or 90p for that matter.

[apatel21] 05/12/2014 10:32

This has now literally halved in price from where CEPSA were proposing only weeks agoAs each day goes by they must be sorely tempted to pounce.Even a 100p cash bid would seem compelling now.

[cwa1] 05/12/2014 09:46

FWIW, I've just had a few. Been thinking they looked cheap for a while now but they keep on getting cheaper! Anyway, good luck all.

[nigelpm] 05/12/2014 09:38

I conker but I topped up y'day.

[tiswas] 05/12/2014 09:24

So the bid is worth 79p at this moment in time v 67p SMDR

Upside

OPHR share price recovers
Another bidder

Downside

OPHR share price falls
OPHR pulls out

I think the very last one is unlikely because OPHR know they are getting a bargain. So I think we have 20%+ upside from here and I have topped up.

[doji star] 04/12/2014 16:21

looks to be on a par with most oil and gas companies today.

the graphs are pretty much the same across the board.
slowly down all day

[nigelpm] 04/12/2014 15:18

I presume the fall relates to SONA walking away - this is so leaky.

[pineapple1] 04/12/2014 14:38

So if this has a 20% bid premium in it ,its only worth 56p ish without......lol

[speedsgh] 04/12/2014 13:07

I suspect the latter. Or perhaps they derive some bizarre pleasure out of being shafted by an acquirer?

[pineapple1] 04/12/2014 13:04

what do management gain out of the OPHR transaction. Are they joining the board or are we talking brown envelopes perhaps.....
imho

[speedsgh] 04/12/2014 13:01

Surely the worst case scenario from here would be to proceed with the SONA deal? That way we would remain stuck with the same crooked BOD who are clearly happy to act in their own personal interest at the expense of shareholders. Rotten to the core imo.

[ed 123] 03/12/2014 15:21

The SONA deal is not dead (yet, anyway!)

Will SONA shareholders support the proposal? They haven't voted on it yet, afaik.

The backdating is to 1 January 2014, I think. Maybe that could clinch SONA's support? If the deal takes another 4 weeks, say, to complete, then SONA would get a full year's income from 40% of Bualuang effectively knocked off the price.

If it did go through I'd be happy to forego the 11p and retire more debt as and when it matures. Salamander can grow shareholder value from here, surely? I do like the on shore gas in Kalimantan. There could be much more - big area under licence. Indonesia needs more power generation = good for long term gas contracts. The onshore gas would be relatively cheap to produce and Salamander has Indonesian tax losses to use up = should generate good cashflow.

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 15:18

Agreed Patel. Apart from on the recovery of OPHR shares.

There are 43m shares short, they are buying back in decent volumes daily and the current price is around cash value. They are huge value to me.

[apatel21] 03/12/2014 15:14

CEPSA can take this for a quid c 30% below their recent proposal if you for something for the contingent elementSurely this level of discount gives them some downside risk protection from a sustained low POOThis offer would put clear water between them and OPHR whose shares I don't envisage recovering anytime soon.As someone mentioned they have form in doing this when they were chasing Coastal

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 14:22

Either way 72p is ludicrous. SONA deal would net 11p and retire much of the debt.

Currently being priced as if all deals are out of the reckoning.

[ed 123] 03/12/2014 14:07

Didn't CEPSA walk away from Coastal then return with a successful bid?

Salamander trading at about 72p, won't receive a 120p offer, imo. CEPSA could succeed with an offer of 100p cash. No need to pay any more, as I see it.

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 13:01

Thanks Tony. I've asked to follow him.

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 12:50

Out of interest who is Laurent C? he's got 61 followers of which you must be one?

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 12:47

Thanks Tony.

Of course. SMDR shareholders would likely take a £1.20 offer from CEPSA over an 80p one from OPHR.

Would be interested if CEPSA pitched at a £1 - since OPHR price could rise based on an assumption they walk away.

[tonysss13] 03/12/2014 11:48

Laurent C. ‏@thechek_Fin 17m17 minutes ago

>>> Salamander bidder Cepsa considering position hxxp://thechek.posthaven.com/-salamander-bidder-cepsa-considering-position …
3:30 AM - 3 Dec 2014 · Details


tweeted just now, I assume Cepsa could come back & trump OPHR now a deal is recomended?

[nigelpm] 03/12/2014 09:36

Aren't analysts good eh? Reduce target prices when the oil price falls and no doubt will raise them again when OPEC realise they've messed up and reduce production.