Salamander Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lonrho] 09/12/2014 10:14

think it depends how much short term pain the investment banks want us to take. there is a theory they are shorting oil stocks to regain losses incurred as they are the other side of the oil companies hedges.

[nigelpm] 09/12/2014 10:03

been crazy for a while - there will be an almighty move up at some point. depends hoe much short term pain you want to take ;-)

[lonrho] 09/12/2014 10:02

just bought some more at 56.87 this is getting crazy.

[nigelpm] 09/12/2014 09:57

Market pricing in complete failure here to do any deal. OPHR effectively can be bought for 99p!

[loglorry1] 09/12/2014 08:43

I'm in here for a decent sized slug at 60.6p.

SMDR operating costs of $16/boe should mean they can withstand a low oil price environment and although I've never understood how the Thai tax system works - taxes should reduce with oil price.

The OPHR bid will likely go through still and OPHR's cash backing should provide a floor on the SMDR price. Also the $400m or so of debt at SMDR (which is not at all attractive) won't matter if it is subsumed by OPHR.

OPHR have great assets if you believe in the long term viability of LNG exports to Asia which has a lot of merits so I'm ok to hold OPHR and hopefully they can do great things with their cash in this environment.

Log
(also hold a bit of OPHR)

[nigelpm] 08/12/2014 11:37

If anything was going on with respect to interest in Ophir I'd completely expect OPHR to spike occasionally and not be trading below net cash.

There's clearly someone close to the business regularly leaking stuff to the Sunday Times.

[nigelpm] 08/12/2014 11:35

lonhro - I'd think if AN Other were to bid for OPHR they'd make a very clear assessment of the SMDR purchase and I'd say it would be more likely than not that they'd not wish to continue the transaction as OPHR and SMDR are very different beasts.

[lonrho] 08/12/2014 11:22

yes providing that the bid for ophir wasn't conditional on their dropping their bid for salamander.

[nigelpm] 08/12/2014 09:14

tiswas - true, and that isn't out of the question by any means!

[tiswas] 08/12/2014 09:12

I suppose what would really put the cat among the pigeons would be a bid for OPHR at these levels.

[nigelpm] 07/12/2014 19:11

And worth noting that Nigelpm has been completley wrong about SMDR price action since i can remember....

Indeed. It's not a competition. Most on here are surprised at the share price.

[pineapple1] 07/12/2014 18:20

nigelpm 6 Dec'14 - 20:39 - 2071 of 2074 1 0

Worth noting pineapple was only "right" because of the fall in the oil price

LOL

And worth noting that Nigelpm has been completley wrong about SMDR price action since i can remember....

[ohisay] 07/12/2014 09:36

Thx N - mid Feb is much more reasonable.

[nigelpm] 06/12/2014 20:45

ohisay - again worth listening to the conf call - talk about a mid feb close on the deal assuming shareholders agree it and OPHR ones will as they spoke to them beforehand.

Will be buying more SMDR on monday - closest I've seen to a no-brainer for some time.

[nigelpm] 06/12/2014 20:43

dlm2602 - worth listening to the conference call - essentially both parties are happy with the ratio and OPHR directors made the point that the share prices of both have tracked relatively on that basis throughout 2014.

[nigelpm] 06/12/2014 20:39

Worth noting pineapple was only "right" because of the fall in the oil price.

[dlm2602] 06/12/2014 17:54

I owned OPHR shares prior to the bid for SMDR and shortly afterwards sold OPHR and reinvested in SMDR taking advantage of the relative mis-pricing of SMDR. This mis-pricing has increased significantly this week which suggests to me that the market thinks it won't happen on the current agreed terms. I hope i'm wrong but I wonder whether OPHR reckon that they can renegotiate the all share offer on more favourable terms to OPHR

[ohisay] 06/12/2014 16:35

RE arbitrage - I'm reminded of the RKH/MOG deal when buying MOG (as I did) got you RKH shares a good 15% below the then current RKH price.
I might say that as far as the Xmas extension goes this isn't worth a row of beans.
The better question you MIGHT ask is why in the original 24/11 RNS the deal doesn't complete until 31/3. Why so looong.?
Again look at the RKH /MOG timelines.
I bought MOG because I thought the deal had to go through.The SMDR/OPHR deal is so incestuous I think its a no brainer too.
So money to be made arbitrage wise on buying SMDR at these levels .Of course whether you think long term Ophir is a good bet depends IMO on your view of E. African LNG.

[briggs1209] 06/12/2014 16:11

If this deal is still on it should be an easy arb opportunity for a decent sized and nimble fund. For the likes of me it just looks like a reasonable entry point into SMDR - but then again I thought that at 100 p and 90 p !!!

[lonrho] 06/12/2014 14:56

maybe because they think that Ophir share price might fall a lot further as oil company prices are falling daily and the transaction might not be completed until the end of March 2015. However that is ignoring that Ophir's market cap is almost entirely backed by cash and its assets are gas not oil. Still in a good bear market fundamentals go out of the window, at least in the short term. This can be seen in the way that well hedged companies are being trashed at the same rate as lightly hedged ones.

Pineapple I remember the heady days earlier in the year when the bulls were wanting £2 quid a share and you rightly as it turned out said no chance, what do you think is a fair take out price for Salamander.

[pineapple1] 06/12/2014 12:48

So why have they not taken advantage of it then as its so clear to see. You see it?????

[nigelpm] 06/12/2014 11:44

Don't buy the conspiracy. If that were true plenty of other hedge funds would take advantage of the arb. Just think market panic has taken control and its an opportunity for some

[pineapple1] 06/12/2014 10:41

OPHR paper has done as bad if not worse than SMDR since listed.
This fall in SMDR is now clearly orchestrated to give SMDR holders the belief somehow they are getting a good deal and a premium. I,d love to know what instis have been used to do this . Stinks of malpractice/manipulation to me for sure. No way would such an arb in this size go unnoticed unless its been created purposely.I,ll be voting No in any case.
imho

[ed 123] 05/12/2014 19:07

It's a recommended takeover with some major shareholder support on both sides, for an agreed ratio of paper. There's no cash involved, so movements in the oil price are not going to affect the outcome. The shareprices of both companies would be expected to rise or fall with the price of oil.

Having read the paperwork, I'd say this takeover looks good for both parties. Both managements are committed to the takeover. I think we'll see good shareholder support on both sides when the time comes to vote.

Today's rns from Salamander explains the delay in sending out the scheme documents.

[nigelpm] 05/12/2014 17:32

Why is that a logical conclusion?