Royal Bank Of Scotland Share Discussion Threads

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:27

Poor positioning by portfolio managers is suggesting a near-term market pullback may be on the way, says BMO's Brian Belski. Right now he says they're inundated with questions from portfolio managers who are "clearly under-performing the market." When that happens, you know that managers are straying from their discipline. "When they stray," Bielski warns, "bad things happen, the market rolls over, you do emotional things and sell stock."

"Poor positioning," he added, "has led to pullback in stocks that we've seen. They were forced to buy the rally because they were forced to participate. They were chasing performance."
Belski said there is a "clear risk" for a dip soon. "Clearly housing numbers have slowed, employment numbers have slowed, company guidance was excessively negative coming into the quarter. So once again, corporate America is becoming conservative," he said. "So if you bid up these stocks and all of a sudden you're worried about valuations and growth, no wonder the market is rolling over on a near-term basis."


Add: The only comment to that is no S*"? Sherlock...;

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:24

Tuesday's economic calendar:
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 2-Year Note Auction

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:21

The Senate yesterday voted 74-20 to limit debate on legislation that would force retailers to collect taxes for online sales, opening the way for a final vote on the measure, which could take place this week. The White House officially backed the bill for the first time, although its prospects in the House are uncertain even if its passes the Senate.

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:21

Credit Suisse (CS) pulls back further from alternative investments amid the Volcker Rule, selling Strategic Partners - its P-E unit with $9B in AUM - to Blackstone (BX) for an undisclosed price.

Add: Others appear to conduct their affairs more effectively and even do it with discretion re as yet undisclosed sums....;

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:19

ICSC Retail Store Sales: +0.8% W/W, vs. -1.1% last week. +1.9% Y/Y vs. +2.0% last week....added more chippa....;

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:18

Goldman closes its gold short, the metal's move back above $1,400 triggering a stop. Still bearish though: "Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows ... as well as our economists' forecasts for a re-acceleration in U.S. growth later this year." GLD -0.3% premarket.

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:18

HSBC (HBC) adds to its cost-cutting drive, with the latest move set to cost 1,149 U.K. jobs (total U.K. employment is 47K). These cuts will mostly come from wealth management. CEO Stuart Gulliver has slashed about 34.5K from the global payroll since taking over in early 2011.

[ramco] 23/4/2013 13:14

Upside surprises from Dow components Travelers, du Pont and United Technologies helped turn sentiment positive... Earnings will once again be in focus in the U.S., with trains, planes and Apple among the throng of companies posting first-quarter results on Tuesday.

Other earnings reports are due from Delta Air Lines, Lockheed Martin, and Xerox. Apple joins Dow industrial component AT&T after the closing bell, when Norfolk Southern, Amgen, and Yum Brands will also report.

Add: planes are beating estimates both Delta and US Airways beat...;

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 12:25

US futures looking chippa at the moment. No stopping, it seems, the US bull run. Wish the same could be said for London AIM, which seems to be the hedge for everything.

[highland terrier] 23/4/2013 12:16

Comment: Brussels has scuppered free RBS shares for all


LITTLE has gone smoothly with Royal Bank of Scotland since its crash, and it looks like even a discounted or free public share issue when the bank returns to the private sector won't escape that shadow.



It is common knowledge that the Treasury is considering such a plan to reward taxpayers for RBS's £45 billion taxpayer bailout.

But the word is that the European Commission (EC) is looking askance at such a move. Brussels has the power to effectively put the block on, or at least complicate, such a move. Under European single market rules, the shares would have to be offered to everyone in Europe, including non-Britons who did not contribute to RBS's rescue.

That would almost certainly be unacceptable to the UK government and the bank itself. An impasse looms. In fact, RBS is thought not to be madly keen on such a discounted or free sale of shares full stop.

The group's senior management would prefer a less demotic privatisation, one based more on the natural fruition of chief executive Stephen Hester's five-year turnaround programme at RBS that would command a good stock market appetite for the shares.

Group chairman Sir Philip Hampton indirectly alluded to the logistical challenges earlier this year of a re-privatised entity – with British Gas or BT levels of private investor ownership – having to hire football stadium-like venues to hold shareholder meetings. The prospect did not appear to fill him with unbridled anticipation.

You can see why the idea of a shares bonanza for the wider public would appeal to the government. The taxpayer is still in the hole for a lot of money on the RBS rescue, hence the outpourings of vitriol whenever the issue of bonuses arises.

An indirect "present" for taxpayers would help alleviate the pain, and be something of a public relations victory for the government, not least if it was timed conveniently in the year or so before the 2015 general election.

Labour would no doubt accuse the Tories and Liberals of electoral bribes, but now it seems Brussels may render the matter academic by citing the single market rules.

Of course, if EC competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia, insists on playing hardball on the issue, that is hardly likely to repair frazzled relations with Britain's right-wing caucus, in particular. But that's another story.

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 11:59

Not much doubt about the near term direction of travel in this chart ...

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 11:54

Will Draghi ignore the siren calls of the German Bundesbank and cut the ECB rate next month? Will the other voters support him, notwithstanding German opposition?

Analysts see little relief for Europe
The continuing fall in Eurozone output this month (see 9.19am) led by Germany's shrinking private sector seconomy, shows that there's no improvement in Europe's woes.

Analysts believe an ECB interest rate cut looks likely, but that probably won't be enough to turn the situation around.

Here's the latest reaction:

Carsten Brzeski of ING:

The eurozone's economic engine is stuttering...

The weather and, much more important, disappointing Chinese activity, are still having a stranglehold over the German economy.

Kit Juckes of Société Générale:

At the margin, it is good news that we saw the divergence between Germany and France partially unwound, with German data coming out soft.

But the underlying story is that one of the best indicators of what is happening to growth suggests a mild depression continues, getting neither better, nor worse.

There will be debate about whether the ECB will cut rates further, though I doubt that would make any economic difference (except to the very front end of the Euro curve). But the ECB won't be tightening for a very, very long time indeed! Peripheral bond markets continue to rally and that in turn means FX models don't point to any great danger to the Euro, though I still think a weaker currency is needed, and inevitable if I am patient enough.

Richard Driver of Caxton FX:

This is yet more lacklustre data from the eurozone; the pace of contraction in France may be slowing but Germany is the one we are all interested in and the picture there looks very bleak indeed. The chances of a German and pan-European bounce back in Q2 are looking pretty remote right now.

If the ECB don't respond by cutting interest rates next month then you have to wonder how bad things have to get before they do bite the bullet. This should keep the euro under the cosh in the coming weeks.

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 11:25

More clues for the rise here ...

ABF and Arm results lift London's FTSE
Demand for cheap clothes and smart chips help the FTSE 100 make progress after strong earnings from Arm Holdings and Associated British Foods

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 11:17

Perhaps the full note explains why ...

Firms expect return to orders growth next quarter

23rd April 2013
New manufacturing orders fell slightly in the three months to April but output increased and firms are expecting orders to grow in the next quarter. That's according to the latest CBI quarterly Industrial Trends Survey.

The decrease in total new orders was driven by a fall in domestic demand this quarter, the fastest pace of decline since January 2012, whereas export orders stabilised.

However, manufacturers have increased their stocks of work in progress and finished goods. This was most likely in anticipation of a better coming quarter, with expectations for total orders growth at the strongest level for a year. Meanwhile output is also expected to rise and manufacturers' optimism has improved.

Employment in the sector increased in-line with expectations in the three months to April, and manufacturers expect to increase their headcount in the next quarter.

Contrary to expectations, domestic price inflation was unchanged on the quarter, but growth in average unit costs was the highest since January 2012, squeezing manufacturers' profit margins again.

However, weaker sterling meant that the number of businesses citing prices as a factor likely to limit export orders fell to the lowest level since April 2012. At the same time, concern about the effect of political and economic conditions abroad on exports rose to its highest for a year.

Stephen Gifford, CBI Director of Economics, said:

"This quarter was a mixed bag for manufacturers, with new orders disappointing because of a decline in domestic demand, but output did increase.

"Firms are expecting to ramp up production in the coming quarter on the back of an expected rise in new orders.

"Although weaker sterling has eased concern about international competitiveness, manufacturers highlight the potentially chilling effect of political and economic instability abroad on export orders, such as the Cyprus crisis."

Key findings - three months to April:

22% of firms reported an increase in total orders and 28% said they decreased, giving a balance of -6% - disappointing expectations of growth (+14%) in the previous survey, but nonetheless above the long-term average (-3%).
The balance for domestic orders (-14%) was the lowest since January 2012 (-17%), while the balance for exports orders (-3%) was the highest since April 2012 (+4%).
The proportion of firms reporting that they were working below capacity (59%) was at its highest since January 2011 (59%).
However, 23% of firms reported an increase in output and 18% said it decreased, giving a balance of +5%.
Manufacturers said they were slightly more optimistic about their business situation than in the previous quarter (+5%).
Numbers employed in the manufacturing sector increased (+10%).
Next quarter:

A balance of +18% of manufacturers expect total orders to increase, with +19% expecting export orders to rise and +8% predicting growth in domestic orders.
A balance of +23% of firms expect output to increase – the highest level since April 2012 (+24%).
A balance of +8% of manufacturers expect to increase headcounts.
Prices, investment plans and constraints:

Average domestic prices were broadly flat (+2%), while average export prices decreased (-7%). Average unit costs for manufacturers increased significantly (+27%) – the highest balance since January 2011 (+27%).
Concern about prices acting as a constraint to export orders in the next three months fell (to 40%), the lowest since April 2012 (39%), with sterling depreciating by 4.2% between the January and April survey periods.
Concern about political and economic conditions abroad as a likely limit on exports was cited by 39% of firms, the highest since April 2012 (41%).
Manufacturers expect to spend more over the next year on product and process innovation (+26%), training (+13%) and plant and machinery (+4%) but less on buildings (-22%) relative to the past twelve months – the latter is the lowest balance since July 2009 (-43%).
The number of manufacturers citing labour shortages as a constraint to capital spending in the year ahead rose to its highest level recorded in the survey (16%, record since October 1979); the availability of internal finance as a limiting factor rose to its highest level (30%) since April 2010 (30%); and inability to raise external finance as a limiting factor rose to its highest level (12%) since October 2009 (14%).
Note to Editors:

1. The CBI is the UK's leading business organisation, speaking for some 240,000 businesses that together employ around a third of the private sector workforce. With offices across the UK as well as representation in Brussels, Washington, Beijing and Delhi, the CBI communicates the British business voice around the world.

2. The April 2013 CBI Industrial Trends Survey was conducted between 21 March and 10 April. 380 manufacturing firms replied.

3. During the survey period, the pound averaged euro 1.18 and $1.52, while Brent Crude averaged $106 per barrel, compared with euro 1.23 and $1.62 and Brent Crude $111 per barrel in the January survey period.

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 11:15

Bizarre the data earlier this morning was bad, and has got worse, latest UK data from the CBI:

Survey of about 550 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of order volume expected during the next 3 months;

Showed a fall from -15 last time to -25 in today's release.

Yet the FTSE100 is up nearly 1%.

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 10:17

Yes it is almost amusing that in Britain, austerity means public expenditure rises.

[maxk] 23/4/2013 09:49

are you allowed to say that?

[avatar333] 23/4/2013 09:38

Happy St George's Day to all avatars.

;

[dope007] 23/4/2013 09:37

PSBR was a shocker from Gideon!!!

Absolutely no grip on spending whatsoever.

[jazza] 23/4/2013 09:19

Sweden not looking to clever.Creditor nations were happy (and probably right, to an extent) to enforce austerity on the debtors.They won't be happy now their local export markets are wobbling (due to consumers deferring purchases, instead choosing to save more of their income).How to give the velocity of money a kick-start and reduce those savings rates?Induce confidence.An end to the austerity rhetoric from Germany would be a start. The ECB can then step-in..

[leedskier] 23/4/2013 09:17

When I went out after drawing attention to the fact that it is St George's Day, the Euro was rising against the USD and GBP. That has not only reversed but it is falling now. Down 0.6% against the USD.

[jazza] 23/4/2013 08:49

Remember what I posted about Barroso (yesterday) and Merkel generally of late.Hard to win an election in a recession especially one borne of her own austerity-medicine.She'll give growth a chance, its the right electoral strategy.