Roxi Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[timberwolf3] 18/10/2016 10:05

Glad to hear it ngms , have always found your posts interesting.

[ngms27] 18/10/2016 09:41

It's not going to stop me posting or re-evaluating on a decent RNS

[timberwolf3] 18/10/2016 09:37

You will be back :)

[ngms27] 18/10/2016 09:06

I'm out completely, had enough. Better options elsewhere. The longer this goes on the greater the synergy to MXP

[roy1982] 17/10/2016 22:13

control1
maybe in another life

[control1] 17/10/2016 22:01

Everyone given up on getting any news, EVER ...?!

[hotdeal] 12/10/2016 16:48

Someone picking up 100000 on consecutive days recently

[xclusive2] 11/10/2016 08:37

Hi Bull,The trading volume has gone which is disappointing so close to news. I suspect that the Baverstock merger is the key time and we'll probably get news on all fronts end of next month although I'm hoping for the words 'A6 discovery' this month which will help the merger completion without any silly games being played.The volume will pick up over the next 4 weeks as A6 is going to take any longer unless they do the usual, too much mud, lies the drill string and lead drillers hat !S

[bullinachinashop3] 10/10/2016 15:00

Hi Smarty,

On the other hand POO looking good to break the neckline.

Could be a run upwards, with A6 results well well overdue.

Who knows with roxi! agreed the 200dma doesnt look too clever..

[xclusive2] 10/10/2016 10:28

Jonny,

How can be quartered when the company values the shallows @ circa £90m (-:

Bull,

We're trading below the 50/200 dma so i'd have expected a retrace back to retest mid 2014 lows of 6p ish. I suspect that there'll be a shaky, shaky at some point and then a rocket north if news looking good. Could also trade slowly north from here as we get closer to the critical news on deeps and Baverstock merger. If it does get bashed, i will take a trading punt.

Smarty

[ngms27] 10/10/2016 10:22

To date we have been hung (out to dry), drawn (how long have these wells taken?) let hope we aren't going to be quartered (in share price terms).

[xclusive2] 10/10/2016 09:44

Wow, leave you lot for a week and zippo communication, things are poor, especially after some good debate the previous week. Have we done it to death ? fed up of saying the same thing over and over whilst waiting for the next edition of Carverspeak ?

Well i'll kick it off today. We are now drilling through the anticipated oil bearing intervals at A6. Roxi believe that the success case at A6 is similarly as strong as it was at A5.

The company state that the shallow valuation from C&G underpin the m/cap, especially when sold at export rates in 18 months. They also state that the deep assets in the Ayrshagyl area (sounds like a good night out in West Scotland (-:),
offer a much greater potential to boost reserves and should be treated as pure upside.

I believe that we're waiting for the Baverstock merger to complete in Nov/December and this is affecting the release of news on all the deeps. We'll know our fate soon enough.

Smarty

[konil] 02/10/2016 19:57

absolutely agree - which is why we need to see as close to the current split before and after the merger. any reverse takeover will most likely be bad news for pi's.

i think oraziman already holds (or controls) c.65% through direct and indirect holdings. relies completely on his honesty, i wonder if he's a principled man, rare beast in business though they do turn up now and again.

[sloppyg] 02/10/2016 19:03

Think we need to see terms of Baverstock merger and how many shares are in place for the enlarged Group.

As its a merger between a public and a private company it will likely be a reverse merger and I suspect it has been the intention all along. Daehen New Pharm, the south korean firm who previously held a stake in Galaz, bought 25% of Baverstock with the exact proceeds they received from the sale of their Galaz stock. Baverstock also registered in Switzerland so convenient for tax breaks etc.

It's all very incestuos and the risk is, that of the 2 parties, the private company is often over valued in the reverse merger. Consequently we might be fortunate to retain the same 60/40 split that we currently have on BNG.

Personally think it will be radio silence on ops front until the terms of any reverse merger are finalised. We may see a funding package at the same time. Concern is that if ever PIs were going to get shafted, this is the time when it can happen with all the smoke and mirrors of corporate activity and cash concerns etc.

[konil] 02/10/2016 12:49

flawless, the 5m is a reasonable guess at best, a wildly incorrect figure at worst. it would be very useful to get 'hard' numbers but i doubt we'll get any more info than already available.

assuming roxi are not overly 'managing' the news flow, imo a6 news could come anytime because they dont have far to go to td, but they may wait for flow tests before announcing a hit and that may delay news.

with baverstock deal needing 2 sets of political clearances, delays could be frustrating.

i agree the next few months could be definitive, especially if a6 flows, of course we dont know they have hit at a6 yet, so fingers crossed.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

putting my cash position worries aside for a moment and looking at operational success case, leads me to wonder what valuation roxi may have with one of the 3 deeps, say a6, flowing at say 1500bopd. initially there will be hype value of course but then there will be a frustrating period when nothing much seems to happen while further tests, cpr, further drilling etc. is required to prove up the field.

(later, assuming a6 completes successfully first, completing a5 successfully will help enormously. if 801 also comes in meantime then wow!)

imo, with one deep flowing, the hype could take the share price anywhere but it wont be based on any hard valuation metrics because it will take much longer to prove the field and get cpr etc. that could take all the way to licence expiry in 2018 and beyond.

so with c.1bn shares, share price at 50p for example would value the company at £500m. any one's guess how likely that or any other figure is. just guesswork and luck for some time (years?) yet.

btw 50p is not my target figure just a random example. the hype could take it higher or nowhere near, a lot will depend on wider market sentiment at the time.

enough sunday rambling from me.

[flawlesskicks] 02/10/2016 06:50

5 million shares. What will happen with a success case on A6 with only 5m million shares on the open market? This is why the price is holding so well at the moment. Most people are holding for the main event as they have done the maths. Even if we have to wait another 3 or 4 months, it is still well worth the wait to be here when the A6 results are announced. Personally I think we will get the Baverstock merger results in about 4-6 weeks and then A6 shortly after to keep an orderly market while the merger goes through.

[flawlesskicks] 02/10/2016 06:49

5 million shares. What will happen with a success case on A6 with only 5m million shares on the open market? This is why the price is holding so well at the moment. Most people are holding for the main event as they have done the maths. Even if we have to wait another 3 or 4 months, it is still well worth the wait to be here when the A6 results are announced. Personally I think we will get the Baverstock merger results in about 4-6 weeks and then A6 shortly after to keep an orderly market while the merger goes through.

[konil] 01/10/2016 20:35

so with the big holding smarty has i guess its more towards the 15m between possibly less than a dozen pi holders, leaving perhaps c.5m in 'loose' hands.

[flawlesskicks] 01/10/2016 19:59

konil, I have 1.35million and I know someone with over 2million and another person with 1.3million. There are very, very few shares on the open market and a success case would see us trading and possibly 400%+ due to the lack of shares. The management know this and I think this is the reason they are delaying news until the Baverstock deal. Our Kaz insider who just purchased 39million shares had to get them from Raditie NV as that was the only way to purchase such a large number. You have to ask - who is this guy and why purchase £3.5million worth of shares now? What does he know that we don't?

[konil] 01/10/2016 15:35

toggle, actually all that's required here is the number of shares in issue, which as at 30 june was 937,433,077. that is definitive from the interims. and as its an accounting figure it has to be accurate by audit (audited for finals, not interims so a little wriggle room for inaccuracies in the 30 june figure).

the fully diluted number will additionally account for options which have not yet been exercised, but for my purposes at the moment it is irrelevant (though it is of immense interest to me when evaluating the likely dilution on exercise of options, which will happen on success case scenarios).

equally the weighted average number is not of interest when trying to determine shares currently in issue.

what is confusing is the shareholdings info because published figures (even company figures) can be misleading due to being out of date or incorrect etc.

--------------------------------------------------------------

i may have an answer to my question.

rns on 05/09/16
"Roxi announces that on 1 September 2016 it was informed that on 22 August 2016 Raditie N.V. ("Raditie") disposed of its entire holding of 59,654,731 ordinary shares of 1 penny each in Roxi ("Shares") representing 6.36% of Roxi's issued share capital. Mr Bolatzhan Kerimbayev purchased 39,171,745 Shares from Raditie, representing 4.18% of Roxi's issued share capital, at a price of approximately 9.1 pence per Share. The remainder of Shares disposed of by Raditie were transferred for nil consideration to its underlying beneficial owner.
"

so raditie, or rather its underlying beneficial owner, have 20482986 shares (59654731 less 39171745 purchased by kerimbayev).

the morningstar figures show raditie with 3700000 shares. that's 16517014 shares too many (37000000 - 20482986). (can't really blame morningstar because the roxi website figure shows the same, presumably not updated for the kerimbayev deal?)

thus i reckon there are about 19715914 (16517014 + 3198900) in general circulation. of course that's assuming the other 7 holdings listed by morningstar are accurate or close (as far as i can tell they are).

of the c.19.7m in general circulation i'd guess c.10m to 15m are tightly held by a few large pi holders.

[togglebrush] 01/10/2016 13:48

Konil:- Total number of shares in issue should be a simple number but regrettably isn’t. Data is from last Annual report.
.
Number of shares in issue as per Annual Report 2015 dated 2 June 2016
______________________For 2015___For2014
The basic weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year*
______________________914,698,721 835,797,523
‘
The diluted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the period
______________________924,586,221 850,997,523
‘
The basic weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue as of financials issue date*
______________________949,335,601 877,173,464
‘
The diluted average number of ordinary shares in issue as of financials issue date
______________________957,735,601 894,385,778
‘

[konil] 01/10/2016 11:13

ah, i see, thanks flawless.

the morningstar numbers must be out by quite a bit - no way are there only 4789018 shares over and above those 8 listed holdings, which total 934234177 (99.49%) shares, that is if one uses maths to derive 100%.

if one uses the published number of 937433077 shares in issue, then only 3198900 appear to be available over those listed holdings.

i accept number of shares available to general public are limited (assuming none of the big holders start divesting) but both those numbers (4789018 and 3198900) are unrealistically small - would be good to get an idea of actual number of shares available outside those listed holdings.

[flawlesskicks] 01/10/2016 06:30

Omega is Sector - our institutional fund who bought 39million shares back in Jan. There are very, very few shares in open circulation at Roxi. I think this is also one of the reasons why the management are trying to control the news flow as the spike on a positive outcome may not help with the Baverstock merger at all. I really think that will need to be completed first and then the share price will be allowed to rise. Another month or two to wait but we will all just have to deal with it!

[konil] 01/10/2016 01:31

toggle, i accept pi holders are relatively small fry here, but unless i've got my maths wrong, those numbers from morningstar seem somewhat suspect.

if 99.49% = 934234177 shares then the remaining 0.51% = 4789018 shares. we know that is unlikely to be correct, just one pi here has c.3500000 by himself, and i'm guessing there are probably a few more with 7 figure holdings, so that 4789018 number seems unrealistic.

(the company reports shares in issue as at 30 june are 937,433,077 .)

anyone know who omega sa are?

[flawlesskicks] 30/9/2016 16:53

BTD - It is rubbish on LSE - the board is filled with trolls twisting everything you say - sometimes feels completely pointless trying over there!