Roxi Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 20/10/2016 12:10

Konil,

I believe tardy, inconsistent or contradictory is probably fair. Let's hope that we don't have any need for adjectives like abysmal in the near future. It's not just Roxi i'm afraid, the majority of AIM RNS communication is poor and directors have their own agendas, sailing very closely to the wind. Actually directors full stop, i don't believe our Philip Green or Donald Trump are any different !!! Self preservation and do everything possible to maintain it.

What's the risk going forward for all invested here ?

I believe it's less risky now since the G&C CPR and the continual proving up of wells capable of delivering between 200 and 600 bopd a day. They sold Galaz to fund the deep campaign, a dilutive move but they have managed to replicate it or improve on it with the new shallow campaign. TW asked whether they would sell to chase the deeps ? to be fair, no different than what they did with Galaz but i don't believe that's the path.

What's the worst case from share price perspective if A6 fails ?

Dilution as need to raise funds but not if you believe company commentary. Limp along to 2018 with shallow campaign and A7 and then self funded with minimal dilution. What would happen to share price ? i belive the downside is minimal from here and not a shoite or bust play. Downside to 5 or 6p but it will bounce so providing you're not leveraged, it's not a red or black punt.

There's oil @ A5, they've got oil shows at A6 and wire logs will confirm the extent of the horizon before the flow test to confirm commerciallity. If there isn't oil at A6 or not commercial then they're seismic is incorrect and the extent of the reservoir is not as expected.

In summary, i'm a lot happier they have shallow succes and the reserves no's and company valuation is being underpinned. The deeps are all upside and there aren't many AIM minnows who have 3 on the go waiting for a final conclusion.

Pays your money.

Smarty

[konil] 20/10/2016 11:20

smarty, as per your post 33673, i shall use "inconsistent communication" instead of "abysmal newsflow" lol!

as regards raising cash for deeps, not sure that a placing is any more short term than debt against future reserves because there will be an agreed limit to the debt facility from the outset, however depending on how its structured the debt option could be less dilutive so perhaps a preferred option.

i do like your spot in the rns about "These take no account of any reserves from our deep sub-salt drilling success". imo this means they are factoring in success for at least 1 of the 3 deeps (hopefully all of them!) but whether its a slip or a trailer in the rns is unclear.

timber, imo they are excited by the shallows and unlikely to sell those assets, but as the saying goes, never say never, because if they did sell part it could help fund near-term deep ops by monetising some of the shallow reserves while production from the remaining shallow assets would help with 'lights on' costs.



there's the baverstock deal in the pipeline too. roxi is living in interesting times, but whether its a curse or a blessing for pi's remains to be seen.

jonny, i can see why you cleared out, and i agree the jury's still out after yesterday's rns, but the risks are no greater than before the rns and the news in the rns was positive, so perhaps worth a punt at these levels especially as there has been muted response so far? or is this still a proverbial barge-pole for you?

[timberwolf3] 20/10/2016 10:34

I didn't know whether to lighten or add to my holding yesterday, in the end status quo reigned supreme.

[xclusive2] 20/10/2016 10:09

If you believe the story here, then now is the time to load up regardless of outcome as I see a real run north as hype kicks in. Market slow in picking up news and tipsters, brokers not on it yet. I believe done easy money over next few weeks, let's see.S

[xclusive2] 20/10/2016 09:21

TW,I don't see that. The business will be self sustaining in 2018 when not having to sell to domestic market. They know the real return is from the deeps and the challenge they have us funding the campaign. They have stated that they will fund operations with minimal impact on all shareholders. We can all work out the revenue generated from a field delivering a few thousand barrels a day, it will be healthy but not to find a high risk deep campaign. They also can't engage in a placing as that would only be short term but they could enter into substantial debt facility against future reserves or negotiate a JV. Roxi will need substantial funding and success at A6 is critical at this stage. I believe ducks are being lined up and an A6 result will be the catalyst for the funding mechanism.Re today's action, shaky, shaky ? If it drops anymore I'm having a few more ! Greedy MM's wanting to pinch a few I reckon and then run it back up with gusto, let's see.Smarty

[timberwolf3] 20/10/2016 08:36

Smarty - Could they possibly be about to sell their stake in the shallows wholly or partly .

[togglebrush] 20/10/2016 08:02

‘
What is a 'Harami Cross'
‘
A harami cross is a trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a doji that is located within the top and bottom of the candlestick's body. This indicates that the previous trend is about to reverse.

[xclusive2] 20/10/2016 07:26

From yesterday's RNS -;'On 2 September 2016 we published a reserves update from Gaffney Cline & Associates, derived solely from our shallow fields which, based on 100% economic interest, was:(P90) Proved reserves of 18.3 million barrels(P50) Proved and Probable of 29.3 million barrels(P10) Proved, Probable & Possible reserves 45.0 million barrels'These take no account of any reserves from our deep sub-salt drilling SUCCESS'I don't know of any deep drilling successes to date ? Are they counting 801 and A5 as successes or is A6 going to be successful. A lot of focus on the shallows and extent of the MJF structure, especially as they'restepping out another mile with next well. They're building reserves and with it the share price and putting a base under current price.they're definitely lining the ducks up and if positive we're in for some ride.Smarty

[xclusive2] 20/10/2016 07:12

I believe that the Harami Cross pattern confirmed and time to buy loads....lolIt will be interesting to see how much coverage it gets from Fool and all the penny stock tipsters. Also probably due a new broker update.North or south from here ? I believe that new money is about to land and new names on this board very likely !Smarty

[bullinachinashop3] 19/10/2016 14:20

dont know! could do with a rise into close for the candlesticks i suppose! good news today, more to come i recon.

[xclusive2] 19/10/2016 14:16

Bull,

How's the TA looking ? We're over the 50 and 200 DMA, any GC's or technical signals that will accelerate any rise ?

[xclusive2] 19/10/2016 12:44

Sloppy,

Can't disagree with your comments and unfortunately the inconsistent communication has caused investors to be very wary. I find myself referring back to previous communications to ensure that there is that consistency but history has shown that 'Carverspeak' needs interpretation.

They are definitely making a big thing of the shallows and i'm not taking anything away from the fact that they're going to have more success with the shallows and the P numbers will increase. Also the wells cost £2.5m and our Clive believes an ROI within 1 year but we won't go there. The cost of drilling has gone down and the oil revenues will increase come 2018 when can export at much higher prices than the domestic $10. All in all a VERY positive story developing but not the billions of barrels that i first invested for back in 2007.

Re the deeps. You can spin the news and commentary various ways and unfortunately that is down to a lack of trust from previous experiences. This is a pivotal moment for the company and A6, following on from A5 is the reason i'm here, not to see a small return on my investment from shallow drilling.

Mr C is definitely playing A6 down. Is this because he's been caught out with A5 and the steady as we go strategy is the MO. He has stated that the shallows underpin share price and at pains to state today that 141 and 142 are not in the reserves calculation so further underpinning current position. He has also stated that the deeps are all upside and this could mean 2 things, either we're taking a bath or that any reserves upside will be in excess of current company valuation.

I still remain positive from the A5 initial experience as 105m of oil was proved to exist, the fact that they've failed to get it out means i still hold out hope. If A6 didn't deliver then maybe the share price won't get trashed due to the shallow success but i for one will be out for good. It's all about the deeps and investing in high risk exploration areas needs to deliver a healthy return, this isn't a safe investment.

The share price shot to 25p+ on A5 discovery, the fact that we're at 11p and have had good success in the shallows, obviously shows that there is a real wariness and lack of trust here. Not to say that the pundits and the bloggers won't ramp this to death over the next few days and weeks and i suspect that this will trend up considerably as we move through Q4.

I remain hopeful but with my finger hovering on the exit button should we get the wrong news.

As you say Sloppy, pays your money but i think it now becomes a 7p-30p play short term and i'm still all in. If we get a placing from now until A6 news then you know what's coming.

C'mon clive, 100m+ @ A6 flowing @ 2000bopd without any mishaps !!

Smarty

[sloppyg] 19/10/2016 11:21

It is always difficult not to be cynical with any Roxi RNS. Always find oneself trying to read between the lines and ulterior motives etc.

Shallows still seem to be getting the focus. A6 almost a bolt on at end of ops update and certainly not shouting from the rooftops a la A5. A lot of cautious wording "suggest", "better placed", "expect" etc. Learning from the past or something else ?

A5 and 801 not even worthy of a mention anymore.

Can't call between start of something very significant or positioning with regards to dilutive Baverstock terms/focus on the shallows for the time being etc.

You pays your money.....

[togglebrush] 19/10/2016 10:52

FWIW____YTD Price HIGH
‘
Date________ Open___High____Low_____Close___Volume
24/03/2016___12.75__13.13___12.75___13.00___2,349,916
next day was
Good Friday

[maxim1999] 19/10/2016 10:00

Will be interested to see what the volume and the closing price is today. I guess a close over the YTD high would be good.

[ngms27] 19/10/2016 09:51

Add what up? You don't know at what depth they got oil shows, nor how long they continued for or whether there were multiple intervals or a single column.

Until they release the wireline data you are spouting tripe.

[bullinachinashop3] 19/10/2016 09:48

add it up, just cause you sold out yesterday, bad timing sorry for you.

[ngms27] 19/10/2016 09:45

Where's the 199 metres come from? They haven't logged yet so it could be 1m for all we know

[maxim1999] 19/10/2016 09:30

Well it is year 8 or what ever it has been seen IPO for me. My guess is the Share price is being more underpinned by a rising NAV as we get better news on the drilling. I think we have to keep waiting for news that takes us over the 20p level. Then I will finally slide out. I think I got my average from IPO of 50p or whatever it was to 12p so basically back to break even.

Its been a giant distraction from life waiting for news on this. But all my fault. I originally bought in to the idea pre IPO as it was describes as the "consolidator of choice in Kaz". Hahaha. How naive. It would be an injustice of biblical proportions if we did not prevail at the end of the day. Fingers crossed !!!!!

[bullinachinashop3] 19/10/2016 09:29

you dont sound too happy smarty - i think its incredible news, a6 199meters, shallows paying for all this at 1000bopd, a6 about to log and flow..

[xclusive2] 19/10/2016 09:26

Another update to build in good news with 141 and 142 not in the reserves calculation and 5 zones identified as oil bearing at 141. You can see that the P numbers are going to go up.Also this is interesting -;'These take no account of any reserves from our deep sub-salt drilling success, nor of the results of wells 141 and 142.'Didn't know we had any reserves from the deeps so maybe they know a little more than they're telling us.Nothing wrong with a bit of blue sky and maybe this will go on a proper run now. Could still end in tears but the company is building a base under the share price with the positive shallows news. Could be building the base to propel the share price on good deep news or to steady it if bad news, Snarty

[bullinachinashop3] 19/10/2016 09:20

when do we expect the wireline logs, from memory A5 was every 3-5 days?

[captainfatcat] 19/10/2016 09:19

8-) Good things come to those who wait

[bullinachinashop3] 19/10/2016 09:07

well done all lta, about time..:()