Regal Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[j drama] 22/3/2012 05:39

This is Eavex analysis note with target of $1.52 / BUY.




This the latest update I can find after release of 2011 interims.


OIL AND GAS
September 29, 2011
 
Regal Petroleum posted a USD 11.6mn operating loss in 1H11, a result which was expected given that the company was unable to extract any gas in the reporting period. However, Regal states that it earned USD 10.4mn in net profit from the sale of its license for the Barland Concession in Romania. The company's average daily output in the current month has reached 1,620 boepd; for the Sept-Dec 2011 period, we model an average output of 1,800 boepd. We have revised our forecast for Regal's FY11 bottom line from a net loss of USD 4.9mn to a net profit of USD 2.4mn to reflect the profit realized on the sale of the Romanian license. We have a BUY recommendation on the RPT stock with a target price of USD 1.52 (GBp 97).

[j drama] 22/3/2012 01:36

Eavex capital are very optimistic regarding future RPT production.

'We assume that Regal Petroleum will be able to produce 5,200 boepd in 2014, generating USD 116mn in sales'

RPT would produce earnings of approx $75m on 5,200 boepd by my estimates,
on the current PE of 10 that earnings number would equate to a share price of approx 145p!

I wonder what source of information they are using to make that assumption?
Rated as a BUY target price $1.52 (96p).

At least there is one institution covering RPT even if they are Ukrainian.

[j drama] 17/3/2012 03:04

Based on my calculations RPT is currently trading on a PE of 10, not exactly a challenging valuation when they are targeting approx 60% increase in production by the end of next year.
A PE of 10 on production target of 2,890 boepd would equate to a share price of approx 67p.

[stonefold] 16/3/2012 22:43

Thanks to the wiser heads on this board for noticing my mistaken assumption. Having finally had time to sit down and look at it again - it is comparing the two month period jan+feb 2012 with jan+feb 2011. Not as in previous releases comparing one month with a preceding month.
In jan+feb 2011 RPT was shutdown so production would have been zero - so their comparison of +100% was not helpful they should have put N/A

So subtracting jan 2012 total gas 7,406,000
from their jan+feb 2012 total gas 14,79,000
gives the feb 2012 total gas of 6,973,000 cubic metres
divided by 29 days in feb gives 240,346 cubic metres gas per day

using conversion of 100,000 cubic metres gas = 624 boe
means 240,346 cubic metres gas = 1,500 boe per day

assuming continuing production of 1 cubic metre condensate per 4,515 cubic metres gas
then 240,346 cubic metres gas gives 53 cubic metres condensate per day

using 1 cubic metre condensate = 6.295 bbls condensate
then 53 cubic metre condensate = approx. 335 boe per day

adding the gas and condensate gives a total of 1,835 boe per day for feb 2012


my revised approx. figures per day (? = assuming condensate % the same)

month ----- cubic metres gas ---- cubic metre condensate ---- boe
dec 2011 ---- 231,634 ---- 49 ---- 1,753
jan 2012 ---- 239,032 ---- 53? ---- 1,825
feb 2012 ---- 240,345 ---- 53? ---- 1,835

[j drama] 16/3/2012 21:10

If it's a cummulative 2012 number then these are the average production numbers since restarting.

Aug 1,502 boepd
Sep 1,618 boepd
Oct 1,632 boepd
Nov 1,751 boepd
Dec 1,752 boepd
Jan 1,808 boepd*
Feb 1,944 boepd*

If nothing else that's a good trend & something that Greer's team never achieved, stable production!

[jam2day] 16/3/2012 13:46

"Regal Petroleum" 14,379-million cube. m (+ 100%),

It says (+ 100%) if there were no monthly increase (decrease) then no change

[j drama] 16/3/2012 12:38

I suspect that they haven't carried out any of the workovers yet.
You'd expect there to be a dip in production while a well is taken offline to be worked upon.
Either that or they are still working through them & they have been successful enough to make up the drop once back online (seems unlikely considering the consistency).

[buy and hold] 16/3/2012 12:14

So , the daily production is unchanged for February ! This looks even better instead of an unexpected shakeout...

[j drama] 16/3/2012 11:42

That makes more sense:(

[buy and hold] 16/3/2012 10:58

Unfortunately , the figure of 14.379.000 m3 refers to production of last two months ,that means 14.379.000 / 60 days =239.560 m3 / day.

[j drama] 16/3/2012 10:18

Knowing RPT if there is a RNS release it will be after close today to have the least impact on the sp!

[buy and hold] 16/3/2012 10:05

Strong volume ,today.

[j drama] 16/3/2012 09:52

Could be result of planned workovers, prior production was close to that level before 'technical issues'.

[buy and hold] 16/3/2012 09:51

The largest private gazodobuvačami for the first two months of 2012 by JSC "Naftogazvidobuvannâ"-128,449 million cube. m (+ 6.1%), JV "Poltava petroleum company"-51,643 million cube. m (-14.1%), "natural resources"-34,891 million cube. m (-9%), LLC "cube"-Gas-30,109 million cube. m, LLC "energy service company" ESCO-North "-28,951 million cube. m (+ 78,7%), JSC "Ukrnaftoburìnnâ"-19,765 million cube. m (-8.4%),

"Regal Petroleum" 14,379-million cube. m (+ 100%),


CJSC "Plast-6,506 million cube. m (+ 4.9%), NJSC" Nadra Ukraine "-5,836 million cube. m (-34,9%), LLC" K "Dion"-5,342 million cube. m (+ 100%), JV "UkrKarpatOjl"-4,752 million cube. m (-5.6%).

[stonefold] 16/3/2012 09:42

spelling should be Ukrainian :-)

that web site says 100% increase on last months production.
you will have to use a translator to look at the Ukrainian version of the site - as it is not shown on the english version) Top story on left hand side dated 16-03-2012.

(hense the buying activity this morning)

I too hope that it is not a mistake - perhaps they have fitted those compressors.

[j drama] 16/3/2012 09:34

That Feb number must be a mistake, if not I'm a very happy man:)

Can't make any sense of that website, it's all in Ukrainian!

Thinking about it If that number was correct they would have released an RNS as it's a very material increase.

[stonefold] 16/3/2012 09:31

Interesting gas production figures

my approx figures per day (assuming condensate % the same)

month ----- cubic metres gas ---- cubic metre condensate ---- boe
dec 2011 ---- 231,634 ---- 49 ---- 1,753
jan 2012 ---- 238,903 ---- ? ---- 1,808
feb 2012 ---- 495,828 ---- ? ---- 3,752


source of gas figures urainian state service for geology
www.geo.gov.ua

[j drama] 16/3/2012 09:30

Volkswag
As I understand it it's usually 6 months between offers but Energees made their own pledge to make no transactions for 12 mnths.

Personally I don't think Energees will make another offer until they prove they can substantiate the investment by increasing production.

Not heard that re loaning shares before.

[volkswag] 16/3/2012 09:24

3 buys each for 70K executed at 08.50hrs. Perhaps things are looking up? Does anybody understand the takeover panel rules, now 12 months have elapsed, I assume Energees can should they wish make another bid &/or purchase some more shares?

Also I have seen on other board's suggestions that Stockbrokers holding nominee accounts can loan your shares out for shorting, however this can be avoided should you put a limit order on, - to tie up the shares - albeit at an unrealistic price that won't be achieved? Does anybody know how to avoid your shares being loaned out against your wishes?

[jotoha2] 15/3/2012 16:53

Have missed you on the gmg thread Drama queen , nice 350% profit since monday , no wonder you are keeping your head down here , so whats the attraction then , thought the company had the pox or something , my city contacts tell me its a dud or will be.

[j drama] 15/3/2012 10:45

Who are these MMs trying to fool?
Bid 30p, offer 31p & mid 29.25p.
Trying to pick up as many shares but don't won't to drop the price below 30p.

[volkswag] 14/3/2012 21:32

If past experence is to go by Fatima is a good omen when posted on the site.

[nahoon] 14/3/2012 12:21

Aren't we due the full year results soon? Interims to end of June last year were published towards the end of September...