Prudential Share Discussion Threads

[whatja] 11/11/2021 13:28

The results have been well received….with the share price up 10% yesterday and the pre market looking good for today.
With a 10% buy back underway, the market seems to think it has a buyer of last resort….buy now sell to the company later at a higher price…..almost a guaranteed win.

JXN still undervalued in my opinion, but I would say that of MNG too. Seems they are likely to get stuck as high yield shares. Not a bad thing, but some capital growth would be welcomed.

[wmb194] 10/11/2021 09:24

Still relevant to Prudential as it holds a minority stake and to anyone who hasn't sold their shares, Jackson Financial reported its maiden results for Q3 2021 after the close last night.

I haven't been through the detail but it announced a quarterly US50c dividend, ex-18/11/21, paid 09/12/21. Yesterday it closed at $27.41 so, if maintained, this would equate to a forecast annual yield of 7.3%. It also announced a $300m share buyback.

[whatja] 28/10/2021 13:06

The debt restructuring and pay down is now saving about $140m pa.

A nice contribution to the increased didvend cost after issuing all those shares in HK.

Hoping management can find something more exciting to do.

[anthony100] 30/9/2021 14:55

Was the corporate manoeuvres around JXN worth the bother for shareholders and management?
Not for this shareholder.I ended up with 8k of dross.
I was under the impression this unit had a decent scale and was both well.run and profitable.
Turns out to be a minnow.

[whatja] 26/9/2021 08:32

HK shares to be sold at HK$143.8 which is £13.51 or a 3% discount to the Friday london close.

Glad this is now over….

Just have to see what the markets bring…

[whatja] 24/9/2021 17:28

Jxn is in a period of shareholder realignment from a UK multinational to a US domestic audience….
It will take some time to play out….given the total no of shares is about 95m the volume traded has been v high.

I expect the share price to rise as the “forced selling” completes.

The Pru fund raise seems to be a little under 1400p. We will know final prices soon enough but expect more trading in HK and a rise to 1500.

[pherrom] 24/9/2021 14:51

Sold Jackson (JXN.WI) shares 23rd Sept for £18.96 per share ($26.28).

[churchill2] 24/9/2021 07:44

Looking at my share account last night realised I had made a pigs ear of my calculation of the value the Jackson share. It’s more in the region of 47-48p.My apologies and a lesson I thought I had leant always double check your numbers.

[churchill2] 23/9/2021 07:46

Checked my figures on Jackson and that should read £1.35p.Total revised to £17.60p.

[churchill2] 22/9/2021 17:17

Interesting couple of days. I would not be surprised if the fund raising in Hong Kong was going better than anticipated for reasons discussed on this site quite a few times in past months.The HK Stock Exchange was closed today so tomorrow will reveal more information about which direction the PRU is going.

Where do we stand at the moment ignoring generous past and present dividends re M&G and current USA tax on dividends.

Currently Prudential 1421p M&G 204p Jackson 175p which adds up to £18.00. So after a very disheartening Monday somewhat of a recovery.

[porsche1945] 20/9/2021 17:12

This share has been an epic under achiever, the whole Asian gig looking very wobbly, US has been a disaster for Pru and europe and dog index of the world UK even worse. Wonder really if its one to just leave well alone now, companies that have these big capital raises never do any good long term.

[buywell3] 20/9/2021 09:06

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[whatja] 20/9/2021 08:50

Not good timing to launch a share issue when there are fears for the property market in China and HK.

Pru tanked 8% in HK

[whatja] 04/9/2021 18:48

There is a lot for JXN and Pru management to explain in the JXN story

Why the 10% sale to Athene
Why was Pru not able to extract funds from jxn
Why were the CEO and CFO fired
Why the Huge write down in value
Why the delays
Why a share buy back could be possible but the dividend to Pru impossible.

To me JXN looks like a bargain because of the question marks caused by the above…. It will take a couple of years to provide evidence to the market that jxn can be a reliable dividend payer..during this time the shareholder base needs to transform from an inherited UK and international base of Pru to a US domestic set of investors. IMO this rotation in the shareholders will ultimately benefit JXN and I expect a higher valuation in 2 years time.

A 2-3bn USD mcap makes it a bite sized acquisition for US competitors.

[whatja] 02/9/2021 17:14

In this odd market

Pru is back to its recent highs that included JXN.

[whatja] 01/9/2021 18:36

Market is stiffing the forced sellers of which there could be plenty…

Could easily double in price from this rock bottom price.

[whatja] 01/9/2021 18:31

JXN WI has started trading…..much lower than we hoped.

Open was 25, currently at 32.50

Which is a forecast yield of close to 14%…..

Junk or it is going to rise significantly

Approx 60p per Pru share.


I expect it will rise…

[whatja] 30/8/2021 11:22

Churchill
There is a wrinkle that I have not attempted to adjust for and that is the retained 20% of JXN in Pru.

My share price estimate is on the basis that all JXN value was allocated across the JXN shareholding.

I need to up Residual Pru by about 20-25p to reflect that this proportion of JXN will remain embedded in the Pru price.

Anyway….this is more complication than we need and we will know the real value soon enough.

[churchill2] 30/8/2021 10:15

Hi Whatja

Your calculations are similar to mine. So it looks like we start with approximately PRU at £14 plus Jackson £1.20. Is it possible by Christmas a combination of PRU/MNG/JXN to exceed £20.

[whatja] 30/8/2021 09:11

My thoughts on JXN price.

Start with a yield of 7-8% and a year one distribution of $325m minimum in the analyst presentation. Gives a value of $4.6bn to $4bn

Number of shares….
2.6bn Pru shares /40 = 65m is 90% of shares so the number of shares is approx 72m

$4bn /72m = $55 sp
$4.6 /72m = $64

If the market uses a midpoint distribution in the analyst presentation they would be 15% higher and 30% if the top end is used.

An initial 9% yield would see the MV at $3.6bn or about $50 per share.

This is only a very rough and ready computation hence a wide range of potential outcomes
Anywhere in the 50-70 range seems an initial fair value.

Like MNG is suspect the attraction of JXN as a reliable yielding stock will take a while to become established. My long term 2-3 year view would be a target 6% yield on the mid distribution value which gives $86.

We don’t have long to wait to see what the XD Pru price will be.
A starting price of 60USD equates to 1.5 USD per share or 110p. Perversely if the demerger creates value in the market Pru May fall much less than this……MNG a floated at 220 and the total of Pru + MNG rose by nearly 100. Hoping there will be a similar value uplift this time around.

[churchill2] 29/8/2021 09:25

I may be off the mark but based on the information released so far my calculation of the Jackson share price will be around 64 dollars.

[churchill2] 17/8/2021 12:51

The main company that the Prudential compares with in Asia reported half yearly figures this morning. A1A reports in the same calendar period and in US dollars and apart from small operations in AUS/NZ services the same markets as the PRU.

No need to go into great detail IFRS operating profit for A1A 3182 against 1969 for the PRU.

Based on the closing price in HK the value in sterling of A1A is 109 billion pounds.

On the basis PRU is approximately 60% the size of A1A there does appear to be a rather large anomaly.

[luderitz] 12/8/2021 14:14

I may follow for the same reasons.

[topvest] 12/8/2021 12:45

I have sold out. I can’t easily hold the Jackson shares without bearing additional costs. The future equity raise also underlines what a mediocre business the PRU is. £15 seems to be a resistance level chart wise, so thought I would get out while the going is good.