Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[stoopid] 18/4/2017 13:47

Here is hoping your right.....

[wallywoo] 18/4/2017 11:21

Chart now looking much more like a continuation pattern (see Pennant):



Not confirmed yet but looking good. Need a high volume break upwards from this point, which may not come until the results on the 26th

[wallywoo] 13/4/2017 16:26

Have seen a lot of double top formations over the years juju but this isn't one of them. Sell if you really believe that, but you will regret it imo

[juju44] 13/4/2017 16:07

Double to[p - party over

[m_n_tomlinson] 13/4/2017 15:47

I see this is drifting downwards again in time for the results as worry, lack of confidence and negativity sets in. 7p on the cards and wouldn't be surprised to see lower..

[stoopid] 13/4/2017 10:26

Wally, I hope they have been paying debt down as well, I really do, because the share price will rise simples. I know what you are saying about their margins and what profit they could announce. I want underground and POX to be a success I see all the positives for POG success but it still doesn't alter the fact that POG have approx $850m in stated debt liabilities currently. Hopefully that will come down rapidly as IRC goes forward and debt is paid down. They have rearranged the financing for the majority of it which gives POG the flexibility to fund POX and underground.There is also the possible dilution from the $100m bond to consider which I hope POG pay down before it becomes an issue again, it's already an onerous burden with a 9% cupon....

[grbaker] 13/4/2017 09:35

"1018 - BF – Inter-fund cross with delayed publication requested (MTF 1 TBA)"

See:

[davidlloyd] 12/4/2017 18:25

Anyone hazard a guess as to what the 'BF' code of the 600k trade today- broker to broker with some qualification or other perhaps?

DL

[wallywoo] 12/4/2017 15:17

Grb the presentation just says that debt was just under 600m at June 16 nothing more. Now in the last 9 months when Pog have been keeping capex down and producing 228.9k ounces in h2 plus q1 I think debt will be low 500m. But let's wait until the 26th

[grbaker] 12/4/2017 12:18

Don't drag me into it!

P.S.

They don't say exactly in the last thing they published, which was the 29 March 2017 Investor Presentation:



We'll have to wait for the next 2016 Annual Report, due: 26 April 2017

POG refinanced $530 million of bank debt in December 2016, which I believe includes the $100 convertible bonds. See page 60 in the above link. The graphs on that page do however seem to indicate that the net debt is still languishing somewhere around the U$600m (or is that $594m?!?!)

From that document, page 60 again, it looks like they intend to pay most of it down between 2019 ans 2022: so there's still plenty of time to wait for a substantial re-rating here IMHO (as I personally believe it's the debt and the IRC guarantee that's holding us back more than the 'Russian' factor... although that can't help of course).

GLA.

[stoopid] 12/4/2017 10:36

And on that debt note, the figure is NET debt, this includes cash in hand/bank/daily operational costs etc. The ACTUAL debt will be higher than $594m. I'm sure GRB could provide a figure for the actual debt......

[stoopid] 12/4/2017 10:32

Wally, heh, you take pedantry to a new level. Im sorry you are right, the debt wasn't last quoted at $600m, it was only $594....My apologies.

[wallywoo] 12/4/2017 10:01

Stooped and popeye, please stop trying to add credibility to each others post. The only board you post on is this one and one of you always posts just after the other (I shall leave the others to draw conclusions to what that means) . Let me put the correct spin on your post stooped. 594m was the net debt figure in June 16, since then Pog have produced 228k ounces at 500 dollar margin in h2 and also probably around 150k in q1. There is no evidence that convertible bonds stop a share from rising above the conversion price, if the bond holder wants out they sell the bond not convert. I can only speculate on debt now but it's less.

[juju44] 12/4/2017 09:36

It keeps doing double tops and then collapsing back . Looks like same again on the chart

[popeye888] 12/4/2017 09:34

Stoopid, you put the case very well, thanks for that.

[stoopid] 12/4/2017 08:58

Popeye, part of the problem here is that for years POG could do no wrong, expanding rapidly, aquisitions, dividends etc. Was like a golden child.... Then they nearly collapsed due to debt and failing to hedge the gold price to cover POX etc. They also had a lot of high cost aluvial projects that were not financially viable. As you know, the fall from grace was painful.Cost a lot of people a lot of money and as such, POG have fallen from favour with institutional investors, that and the fact they are essentially a penny share atm and well down the rankings (a far fall from the heady days of possible entry to the ftse100) and have fallen off many people's/investor's radar.The fact that there is still $600m in debt outstanding, POG appear to have stopped paying down debt to fund POX and underground and with a $100m bond to pay off the debt is still a big issue. Production has not yet recovered to 600k oz no will it for at least another 12 - 24 months. No divis yet. Condidence issues, possible takeover in the wings. It's plain to see why POG share price is still struggling.Also with the bond conversion price at about 8.2p i believe that is also restricting the share price from moving up too far. BTW, I think you will find that if the bond holders try to convert, POG have the option of paying off the bond before its converted. If they have the $100m to spare.....

[popeye888] 11/4/2017 18:23

If Russia/Putin were the problem with POG share price then why is HGM charging ahead and is quickly getting back to share price of 2011. POG share price if it were to match HGM performance should now be around £0.53 per share.

So Russia/Putin cannot be the reason. Unless someone thinks Gold is going out of the back door to keep Putin sweet.

[celeritas] 11/4/2017 16:27

Its been much the same since the invasion of Crimea.
Plenty of stocks based in Russia doing very well.
Boris is a complete buffoon, totally out of his depth

I agree welshwiz.

[galeforce1] 11/4/2017 16:20

TyM

IMO the danger for POG shareholders is that the Russian authorities respond to the constant provocations of Boris J and the UK govt trying to 'punch above its weight'. Boris has spent the last few days trying (and failing) to organise new international sanctions against Russia. Whatever you feel about the morality of this, it's very provocative.

As a UK company active in Russia POG is definitely a potential target if it comes for 'tit for tat' economic policies.

The UK no longer has the diplomatic leverage that came from being an influential member of the EU, and that weakens our position. Our interests can now be singled out and attacked.

[welshwiz] 11/4/2017 16:18

I have followed POG closely for a couple of years.
it is soon i.e the next couple of years- to become a major cash converter

The cat is out of the bag and there is a narrow window of opportunity for the accumulator as there are other interested parties imho of course

[stoopid] 11/4/2017 16:04

Why? Reasons?

[welshwiz] 11/4/2017 15:42

I could see a massive upside surprise here this week

[celeritas] 11/4/2017 15:26

Gold looking perky again.

[tymedici] 11/4/2017 15:12

Not sure how the Russian effect impacts on this share price. But I suspect that the pressure is building up on Putin and his dodgy foreign policy. He has got away with murder (literally) both here and abroad and Putin now seems to have exhausted the policy options. The trick from the Western point of you, will be to encourage a change of direction without destabilising Putin both at home and abroad. A tricky problem. Still popular with the majority of Russians doesn't help either.