Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[aleoap] 08/5/2012 17:36

Well I've recorded LSE gold stocks down 9.1% against a drop of 3.2% for physical gold for May to date. The trend continues.

Strange market movements today, Euro/Greece fears so stocks down, gold/silver down and the 'safe haven' bonds up. Market becomes more illogical by the day.

Gold under the magical figure of £1000, this to me is the signal to buy. Both gold and stocks. It should prove strong support.

PGL hit with some AT's today to continue it's trend down. Going to need more than Tersang JORC to reverse this. Today OTC announced a JORC upgrade and were still down on the day.

[aleoap] 04/5/2012 22:37

We should be due a production update soon along with JORC for Tersang before end of May. Any upside spike has to close above 25/26p and stay over for a week or two to clear this downtrend. I'm expecting production figures to be good and Tersang is of course positive so subject to promises being delivered we may see some positive movement.

I've been collating data on the gold sector for a while now and it is very noticeable how the metal itself has performed vastly better than the stocks. Over the last 8 months (including May to date) Gold has outperformed 6 out of 8 months. Shares only doing better as a sector in Dec and Jan. Gold price has declined month on month since Feb however but has still lost less as a % than stocks over this period.

I'm expecting a shift change from June onwards however. I'm expecting money to flow out of oil stocks and some find it's way to the oversold gold sector, this in part due to a faltering oil price (less profit for oil stocks but cheaper energy for miners). Of course there will still be 'hot' oil stories over the coming months, CHAR and FOGL are examples, but goldies are due an Oct 2010 style shift upwards soon.

Incredible really that you can purchase AME at less than cash in bank, PGL with expected production of 50,000oz pa this year, OMI, SRB, CGH, MARL and others at these prices.

As per Oct 2010 I'm expecting a rising tide to lift all boats, so it shouldn't make too much difference which stocks you are in as I imagine they will all get the same treatment bar a few basket cases, of which I don't believe PGL is one. Just a shame PGL don't have the same management as CNR, of which has stood up to the market manipulation due to it's strong team, ability to conduct PR, deliver on its promises and treat investors with respect.

[eric76] 11/4/2012 16:06

Thanks for the posts aleoap, they've made for some good reading. Starting to look a little tempting again at this 20p level after moving into profit. If they can manage anywhere close to the 2k/month they're approaching then at £11m? mrktcp they're not overvalued anyway.

[aleoap] 10/4/2012 09:14

Looks like the general manager responsible for the upgrade from 1.1mtpa to 2mtpa Brett Hampel has moved on to pastures new. He's now with Mutiny Gold, good riddens I say. The upgrade has been unbelievably poorly managed. Good luck with that Mutiny lol.

[aleoap] 04/4/2012 16:21

Finally looks like our seller is moving on and buyer taking over. There's been regular £5k purchases these last few days, the 100k, 199k and 50k on the sell side disappeared and you can sell 100,000 shares at 20.9p currently. Maybe someone happy with March plant performance..

[robhammers] 29/3/2012 10:13

CASH CALL!!

[aleoap] 29/3/2012 09:22

Well, pre-tax profit £239,322 for the six months, an improvement on the previous six months ended 31st Dec 2010 figure of £121,065.

I was expecting a loss, so pleasant suprise. No other news though other than Tersang expected before end of May.

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 19:50

mildred, thanks.

Know all about SRB, I purchased at the lows and are my best stock in stockchallenge 2012 year. Currently 108 in year 2012 challenge.


PGL is the worst, no surprise.

[mildred49] 28/3/2012 19:43

aleoap

add SRB to your list, it is ISA-able

£14m market cap off top of my head?

3 large shareholders control 60% one of those being 26% holder Eldorado a $10bn gold miner who are next door

Currently investigating restarting production at mothballed mineplant with initial target of 20k oz p.a.

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 19:08

Today's late trade:

'28-Mar-12 12:10:10 19.50 200,000 Sell* 20.00/20.50 39.00k'

200k at 19.5p, reason for drop. And I believe the 199,000, 100,000 and 50,000 were still on the sell side at close. Whoever the seller is they have more to shift. And as Horndean says with no buyer interest how low can this go. Cheap can get cheaper as they say.

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 18:23

Well at this mcap they stick out like a sore thumb. Looking at producers:

1) GAL - Mcap £11.5m approx 7,000oz pa
2) PGL - Mcap £17.3m approx 21,500oz pa (using feb 12 as guide)
3) GDP - Mcap £23.8m looking to hit 40,000oz pa
4) ANGM - Mcap £25.8m
5) HMB - Mcap £26.5m
6) MWA - Mcap £26.8m
7) OMI - Mcap £28.7m
8) CMCL - Mcap £29.4m

Then you are straight to £45m+ for more producers. Obviously if I've missed any out under £40m mcap let me know.

PGL are now financed, have stated if they need extra capital for review of circuit it will be funded from cashflow, therefore dilution risk is minimal. We are finally going to break the 1 million oz mark (hopefully from the Tersang JORC - 550,000oz will do it - currently at 528,000 non JORC).

Using my figures I've calculated 52,500 is achievable using the new plant, 52,500 x £1050 = £55,125,000 revenue from sales pa. So more than 3x revenue of year ended June 2011. This isn't pie in the sky, they have the plant, equipment, tonnage and now just need the expertise and management to optimise it. Of course cash costs impact every oz produced however the extortionate salaries the directors are taking (imo) won't be going up 3x.

I don't like everything about this company however I know when something is cheap, and the discount given due to mismanagement, delays etc for me is too great here.

IF, and it's a big IF, we see production continue from 1621 in jan, to 1787 in feb and move over 2000 and then 3000 and RNS updates confirm that production is on the up with a possible target of 4375 per month (my figures), then we will see a quick re-rate. Possibly then, the market may be more forgiving over this last years disastrous lack of management and poor progress.

I've held over the bad times, and now, with a recent upturn in production and signs the plant is performing, I am looking forward to the rest of this year.

[horndean eagle] 28/3/2012 15:58

PGL have very little credibility left with the market so its hardly surprising there is a lack of interest. Scum of a management team. Not entrusting them with any more funds until they actually deliver even a fraction of what they promise.

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 14:37

Interesting news from their neighbour


Monument says busts gold theft ring at Malaysian mine

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 14:29

Raub may be rebounding

[aleoap] 28/3/2012 13:15

Is this capitulation day? Had to take more at 20p. Seems I'm the only buyer though. The seller is wanting out seemingly at any cost now. PGL has only spent 3 months under 20p, through period Nov 08 - Jan 09. Those buyers did well (that sold out higher obviously), and I believe those that buy here will do well too. £17m mcap now.

I expect the juniors to outperform in H2 this year. So now is a pretty good time to be stocking up on them. AME looks interesting with a £3.2m mcap, had £3.9m cash as at Sep 2011 and no debt. There's a bunch of others though I'm starting to pick up here.

[aleoap] 27/3/2012 08:38

Interim results due anyday now. We should get 6620 oz production for six months to Dec 2011 (compared to 8734 for previous year), however gold price for six months to Dec 2011 was between $1550-$1900 compared to $1200-$1400 for previous year. So revenue should be very similar although I assume higher cash cost and expenses mean we show a loss for the six months.

Let's get this out the way and look forward to the next results which if all goes to plan will show a whopping increase in production and revenues.

[superbobtaylor] 22/3/2012 09:03

100% agree, I have no faith in any deadlines that they give. IIRC I originally bought expecting new circuit would come on line in Q1 2011!

Good to see that they are processing ore and that production is on an upwards curve. I take the overall gist of this update as positive.

I don't have much skin in the game at all so it's not a big deal for me. Won't buy more unless company delivers significantly more output and the market ignores.

Next episode of the soap opera called PGL - the finals. Episode usually entitled - PGL announce that they mine lots of gold at a very low cost but never seem to announce any profit!

SBT

[aleoap] 22/3/2012 08:52

SBT - I imagine we will find out in the results. As they processed 37,000tonnes of in situ ore in Q4 2011 and found operation difficulties in dealing with the clayey oxide material they more than likely have focused on resolving this prior to ramping up tonnage. I don't mind a slight change of strategy so long as the recent upward momentum in production continues. I would like to know the tonnage associated with jan and feb's production - hopefully we will get this in results RNS. Like I've mentioned previously once everything is up and running and they push 2mtpa with in situ ore production can easily double and more from here. Remember they were pushing 1.4mtpa on the 1.1mtpa plant (over 20%) and so it's reasonable to assume we could push 2.4/2.5 mtpa on this new one.

I just wish they would stop under-estimating everything. PI's and no doubt insti's don't like expectations not being met. To keep giving dates on resource updates etc and missing them is not professional. Hence the lowly share price

[superbobtaylor] 22/3/2012 08:39

What happened to the doubling of capacity? I thought that was to come on line before the mixing of ore?

SBT

[aleoap] 22/3/2012 08:28

Production figures:

Jan 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Feb 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Mar 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Apr 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
May 2010 1438oz from 90,000t = 0.49g/t
Jun 2010 1618oz from 90,000t = 0.56g/t
Jul 2010 1880oz from 105,000t = 0.56g/t
Aug 2010 1287oz from 82,504t = 0.48g/t
Sep 2010 1043oz from 83,420t = 0.39g/t
Oct 2010 1629oz from 113,580t = 0.45g/t
Nov 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Dec 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Jan 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Feb 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Mar 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Apr 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
May 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jun 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jul 2011 1231oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Aug 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Sep 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t

Oct 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Nov 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Dec 2011 976oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t

Jan 2012 1621oz
Feb 2012 1787oz

[sporazene2] 22/3/2012 08:08

aleoap, yes ore now being mixed with tailings with a ramp up to full capacity by Q3.further delay on Raub resource estimate, but tersang due any time, they seem to be spinning the potential of tersang and the surrounding areas

[aleoap] 22/3/2012 07:57

Positive, negative, positive, negative...the mass of information in this RNS all seems to cancel each other out. If we continue production around Feb's levels however we are currently on approx 21,500oz pa. Results RNS should be next week with more detail.