Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[saucepan] 16/8/2011 12:04

Blue again today on a bad day for the markets. I am even more inclined to suspect that this is good news leaking. Technically, arguably, a reversal of the downtrend, too!

[the merlion] 15/8/2011 17:20

I suspect a drilling/exploration update very soon. Maybe a progress update also regarding the CIL plant expansion.

We are waiting for results from a few DD holes at Raub and some RC holes at both Tersang and Tenggelan.

Although we are currently drilling DD at depth I am looking forward to their completion as Sept 2010 DD at depth produced very high grades indeed.... 5.9m at 99.60 g/t Au including 2.1 m at 280 g/t, 0.5m @ 1,160 g/t, 3.67 metres at 8.25g/t Au and 31 metres at 1.62g/t Au. In May 2011 4 holes were reported but failed to produce anything like the results of Sept 2010.

All in all, a welcome rise today and lets hope from some more impressive DD results.

[saucepan] 15/8/2011 16:46

That's rather better; news afoot?

[aleoap] 12/8/2011 13:58

Just re calculating my production estimates going forward for PGL. I have taken some info from 'The Merlion' over on another site - hope they do not mind.

Looking at the tailings production numbers and average grades produced thus far as reported by PGL (some are estimates over a quarter as month by month figures may not have been given).

Jan 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Feb 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Mar 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Apr 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
May 2010 1438oz from 90,000t = 0.49g/t
Jun 2010 1618oz from 90,000t = 0.56g/t
Jul 2010 1880oz from 105,000t = 0.56g/t
Aug 2010 1287oz from 82,504t = 0.48g/t
Sep 2010 1043oz from 83,420t = 0.39g/t
Oct 2010 1629oz from 113,580t = 0.45g/t
Nov 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Dec 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Jan 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Feb 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Mar 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t

Average grade approx 0.42g/t

So, when we move to 2mtpa (plant should have been complete end of June 2011) then we have the following (based on 100% recovery, obviously it will be slightly less than this based on recovery rate - cil should be 90%)

2 mtpa @ 0.42g/t = 27,000oz per annum

Now the actual grade of the tailings is 0.73g/t - based on this:

2mtpa @ 0.73g/t = 47,000oz per annum

Now, based on my conversation with the company a while ago, I expect when the crushing and milling circuit is complete that we will have roughly 1 mtpa of tailings at 0.73g/t with a 70% recovery rate and 1 mtpa oxide at 1.40g/t with an 80% recovery rate. This gives me 52,500oz pa when fully ramped up i.e. June 2012. I can't remember if there was a reason why it won't solely be 2mtpa of oxide, maybe it was just to process the remaining tailings or maybe technical reasons on commissioning the circuit.

So, 52,500oz x $1750 = $91,875,000 revenue pa

Cash cost say $650 = $34,125,000

Net to PGL $57,750,000 or £35.5m per annum.

Current market cap £25m

What is really apparent here is the slight difference in grade has an enormous impact on production levels. Monument Mining's 8th Aug 2011 update for their Selinsing plant shows recovery levels of 92.9% at 4.32g/t. Total speculation i know but if we ever got near that we would be seeing 258,000oz per annum. Have a look at the grades we are finding in Raub and do the maths..

[aleoap] 11/8/2011 17:53

Tune in on Aug 26th. This year's Jackson Hole conference.



'"Short of a miraculous reacceleration in the second half, we will see QE3."


My thoughts:
I expect continued volatility until end of August, and I think we have seen a short term top in au at over $1800 p/oz, however I believe our rally is still on course from Sep this year. Rally across equities and precious metals as more fiat enters the system. Silver in particular I expect to explode to the upside - possibly $65 per oz by end 2011, and gold at $2000 per oz, roughly 30-1 ratio. May not be such a bad thing that PGL haven't updated during this period of low market sentiment, if things do turn for the positive as I expect then the updates we should get on assay results, JORC resource upgrades, plant expansions and so on should lift us at least back to 50p levels if not greater. We have plenty of news to come in the coming four months and Q1 next year when grade throughput should double/treble the difference in production and therefore revenue will be exceptional.

[aleoap] 10/8/2011 11:02

New entrant to gold mining in Malaysia along the eastern gold belt:

Australia's Sovereign jumps on Pahang gold wagon


and this from Sovereign Gold's website

[robhammers] 09/8/2011 13:38

obviously skint

[aleoap] 09/8/2011 12:36

Buy max 10k and sell 25k, is a long overdue bounce now due? Currently at levels last seen Feb 2009. Crazy really seeing the progress made, capital invested and nearly doubling of gold price.

[aleoap] 08/8/2011 21:37

I'm also disappointed with management and the continued delays Horndean, however I think the share price recently is more reflective of the current market sentiment. Any sane person would expect the gold sector to be higher as the gold metal price goes higher but the exact opposite is happening in the majority of mining stocks.

Jan 2011 Gold Price $1370
August 2011 Gold Price $1715

+ nearly $350 per oz. In approx 6 months.

Just based on the difference this makes to PGL on production profit, from memory I think cash cost has been around $614 per oz, and approx monthly production of say 1400 oz.

Jan 2011 PGL $1370 - $614 = $756. $756 x 1400 = $1,058,400 profit on sales per month.

August 2011 PGL $1715 - $614 = $1101. $1101 x 1400 = $1,541,400 profit on sales per month.

So since the start of the year based on 1400 oz per month production approx an extra $500,000 per month or $6,000,000 per year additional profit on sales. Now when you start to look at the figures based on approx 3000 oz per month (this is what I am expecting Q1 next year as a minimum) it really does look quite tasty.

I know the above is a very simplistic view of things and cash cost can vary etc however it does show the impact of the rising gold price. On a market cap of less than £30m how can this not look cheap after Q1 figures start coming in.

To be honest, I am starting to look at other gold shares I had previously discounted due to risk and potentially setting up a total punt fund. CRND at less than 10m mcap although high risk if they can turn things around with 36m oz of gold? GMA at 3m mcap? NYO 7p? MARL 14p?

The more this goes on the more it feels like this is engineered in some way to stop the gold investment case getting out of control. I don't believe there is enough power at the top to suppress the gold price but hey keeping the miners under control is no problem. With gold gapping up over the weekend and in future gap ups will more than likely be the norm, at what point will possible suppression of the miners no longer be possible. With PGL today it is plain to see that with minimal AT selling volume the share price can be dragged down over 14% and where updates/news are bordering on non existent there is no buying power to stop this.

MML is the same level it was in Jan 2011, although their cash cost is less than $200 per oz I believe.

Simply put, if you have strong beliefs as I do that gold will continue to rise against weakening currencies, then current prices are a godsend across the sector. With a diversified portfolio purchased at current prices stretching across a mixed basket of risks/countries etc it is hard to see one not doing fantastically well over the long term.

The waiting is the hard part..

[horndean eagle] 08/8/2011 16:05

PGL share price is a reflection on management and their performance so far. Deeply disappointing. Don't fancy their chances at getting another placing away if thats what they had in mind.

[aleoap] 08/8/2011 13:49

28.8p now - somebody liquidating at any price now it seems.

[aleoap] 08/8/2011 13:43

Wow, can buy at 29.15p. Will it get cheaper though?

[davidhp] 08/8/2011 10:12

But central banks all over ASIA are buying gold like billy-oh and PGL is upping production in this quarter?

May buy a few.

DYOLaundry

[aleoap] 04/8/2011 20:52

Lol, just caught a snippet of CNBC, 'Gold is down 15% and investors are moving to the safe haven - cash'...

15 points, not 15% - jeez, and cash 'safe'...if only

[aleoap] 04/8/2011 19:14

Can you imagine if we lost at court? 50% down or more in this market..

I think the current market behaviour tells me QE3 is coming. If stocks were flying and sentiment were positive there would be little reason to approve further QE. Market is being driven down prior to next week's FED meeting and shortly after the Jackson Hole conference (where last year QE2 was announced).

Make no mistake, the gold price will make further all time high's come Q4 2011 and the miners cannot continue to be ignored. Unbelievable opportunities pi's are being given at the moment (across the sector)..

QE3 to be announced a certainty, although it already seems to have started with Japan's currency manipulation, ECB buying bonds etc.

I've also taken advantage of the attack on the energy sector, picking up AEX, FOGL and EO. - a few more are on my shopping list tommorow.

My personal opinion is that we are set for an almighty rally to end of Q1 2012, starting from Sep this year - subject to QE3 being announced.

Following that I am rather cautious, maybe concerned, that the debt fuelled bull market will be sustainable or further QE action will be taken seriously. Gold/silver should continue to do well regardless, and with that in mind, so should the miners...

[kickstart] 04/8/2011 17:57

Blimey the only goldstock to go up today....lol.

[aleoap] 04/8/2011 10:14

Relevant to today's news:


GOLD MINE IS SAFE, SAYS OPERATOR

[aleoap] 04/8/2011 10:09

Bukit Koman residents lose appeal over gold mine

[eric76] 04/8/2011 07:18

Good to have the appeal out the way, derisks the co. further imo. An update on their drilling would be good though esp if they can repeat some of those high grades. 1160g/t sounds mouthwatering and if not an anomaly it would be great to see that repeated in another rns.

[aleoap] 03/8/2011 13:13

One more from Oct 2010:


Peninsular may add glitter to local bourse

'For a start, Peninsular plans to produce between 40,000 and 50,000 ounces of gold next year, and subsequently raise the volume to about 70,000 ounces in 2012.'

[aleoap] 03/8/2011 12:47

Hmmm,

'`Will we be bringing PGL home? Yes, we're looking into it. At the end of the day, we want local participation. We are keen to have a dual listing when the time is right,' he shares'

[aleoap] 03/8/2011 12:43

Not seen this before:


Solid gold

Kam shares that `tailings normally have 0.7g/t. Some of the holes we drilled had 1.4g/t. Then we hit the bull's eye - 1,160g/t is massive. Immediately people came to us wanting to invest.'

[aleoap] 03/8/2011 12:37

This interview dated 2006:


What Is the Value of an Ounce of Gold Reserves in Malaysia?

Market cap then £22m and now its £28m. Back then no production and gold at $600 per oz.

[aleoap] 02/8/2011 20:50

Now would be a good time to release some positive news PGL - with gold creeping over $1650 per oz.

Just looking at the AIM chart to get a feel for where the market may be headed, I actually see the current consolidation phase as bullish. I see a similar pattern as in 1 and 2, and my target if we breakout over the next 6 weeks or so will be 1100-1150 on AIM for next year. I'm betting on a breakout, and am now a few trades away from being no cash, just equities and pm's.

[saucepan] 30/7/2011 10:44

Aleoap: that is a very insightful chart indeed in post 721 - I am most impressed. You also show the MACD divergence without pointing out (to those who do not appreciate its significance) that that is also a very bullish sign.

Cheers