Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[sporazene2] 30/7/2011 07:45

aleop, an ops update is the only thing that is going to drive any meaningful improvement in the share price This needs to confirm that commissioning of the expanded plant is underway and previously committed and delayed timescales are going to be met. Any further delay, especially on the fresh ore processing and share price target would be 25p

Additionally, we are expecting 2 resource updates in the "middle of Q4" if they need cash for the 2012 drilling campaign, which i fully expect then they need to release these updates as per the committed timescales. If i were putting money in i would want to know what it was going to be used for.

I bought into these as a fun punt, on the basis of the rising gold price and short term newsflow could drive this as a momentum play. it's a small % of my overall portfolio and dwarfed by holdings in KYS, SHG and CLF. As i previously said the key downside risk is another quarter delay for the fresh ore being processed.

For me it's very much a short term play , i see the management as weak, and so far have proven they cant keep to timescales or keep investors informed. There are no broker reports on their website and trying to get hold of anyone in the company is not easy. Take the Daniel Stewart report from the start of the year. I forgot how they described PGL, something like one of their "top picks" worth 95p per share; why isnt this report on their website. My final negative on this company is the corporate governance, chairman and ceo is the largest shareholder.

So we will wait and see, the right RNS could drive this back to 50p, if this is the case i will heading for the exit and watch from the sides lines for a re-entry close to the middle of Q4.

All the best.

[aleoap] 29/7/2011 17:01

Fingers crossed it's a reversal of the trend.

One of the reasons I like PGL is due to the low number of shares in issue. 85,461,550 shares in issue.
60.1% or 51,329,553 shares with known shareholders (as at March 2011).
Therefore 39.9% or 34,131,997 shares available to public.

Not a great deal of shares available should we get a stonking exploration RNS. If PGL continue using positive language re Raub and confirming 'what we believe may become a world class mine again' there is the outside possibility of a substantial re-rating as seen with SOLG 5p - 80p where illiquidity can have jaw-dropping short term impact.

[ddonaldson2] 29/7/2011 16:24

Hopefully its a reversal in the trend, a hammer formed on the charts yesterday I am no expert but it does mean a reversal in trend.

[aleoap] 29/7/2011 14:55

L2 just woken up. RNS due? Or just a reaction to new gold highs..

[aleoap] 28/7/2011 21:21

It's not all bad, this was taken from the recent minesite article which just about sums up where we are:

'First will be commissioning of the enlarged plant; second the announcement of a significantly increased resource estimate; third the introduction of mined oxide material into the processing circuit; and fourth, the results for the first six months of 2012 which will confirm that everything has clicked into place.'

It wasn't that long ago we had:

'The intersection has headlined a successful six-hole drilling programme,
highlighting the potential for a significant mining project at Raub,120
kilometres north of Kuala Lumpur, where the Company is already operating a
profitable gold treatment plant. '

""We now know that we have an extension of the oxide mineralisation into the
primary ore and untouched high-grade zones within the original mine site
envelope. '

"We are planning a new round of intensive drilling and resource evaluation to
provide a sound platform for the development of what we believe may become a
world class mine again. '

All taken from the 'Drilling at Raub hits 280 g/t intercept' RNS.

From what I understand the last RNS stated we were going back to the above location (Malacca South) with a couple of rigs. The results could be very exciting..

[sporazene2] 28/7/2011 14:42

wish i listended to myself, went long on a small march SB at 34.5p, i got sucked into the gold price going above $1600

[aleoap] 28/7/2011 11:33

Well looks like sporazene was right with 29/30p being the target. From what I gather the decline in share price, the statement from Andrew Kam in the interim results - 'I look forward to announcing the commencement of commissioning at Raub', and no response from the company to my query over whether the expansion has been completed tell me, in my opinion, that commissioning has not commenced yet.

Of course I could be pleasantly surprised..

[aleoap] 26/7/2011 19:06

Rising POG will offset to some extent the reducing grade in the tailings being produced, but still we need commissioning completed sooner rather than later to get production up and revenues in.

Looks like a nice bowl shape forming on the chart, 50p could be in order by Nov 2011 if all goes to plan. Mind, that only brings us back to the placing price last year. As mentioned in the recent minesite article, I believe 2012 is when we will see real gains here in terms of production/grade increase and bottom line growth.

[eric76] 26/7/2011 07:11

Nice call on the bounce off those bollingers aleoap, looking with interest to see if it continues upwards. POG has to be helping them a lot during this development phase anyway like all the smaller producers I guess.

[aleoap] 21/7/2011 20:04

If anyone is interested, the below is the latest presentation (June 2011) for Monument Mining, who run the Selinsing gold mine.

[aleoap] 21/7/2011 19:42

Thanks Merlion, sometimes a little patience can help. My impatience has been growing in most investments, precious metal related. This year has been pretty lacklustre in the sector, which is suprising considering the continued upward trajectory of the metals. Value will out though i'm sure, and the malaise suffered will hopefully disappear 'if' certain analysts views of $2000 gold by EOY come to fruition.

With regards PGL, my rant was partly due to the hit and miss aspect of trying to communicate with the company. One day you have a 30 min conversation with P.Watson, followed by several weeks of no response by the company to any comms. I'm used to having good relations with management/companies I invest in, it's a shame communication with PGL is so difficult. However, my interest is in the prospects, the growing producer profile and of course those highly geared to a rising gold price - with that in mind I'll stay the course.

And just to add, not that my chart analysis of PGL has been any good whatsoever thus far (must get one right!), I see MACD divergence and tightening bollinger bands which tend to be followed by sharp moves. The MACD higher highs and higher lows are signalling that the sharp move should be UP. Let's wait and see..

[the merlion] 18/7/2011 14:04

aleoap,

Not sure why you are expecting an RNS whilst getting all worked up about it.

Just because they "expected" the Expansion of the CIL circuit to be complete by the end of June, the expansion alone does not command an RNS. Commissioning of the, hopefully, expanded CIL circuit is now "expected" in Q3 2011 and I would assume/expect an RNS stating such.

Your comment of "Why on earth put 'target dates' in an RNS, having already missed deadlines, and then fail to meet them again" is misleading and clear evidence of your own frustration and impatience. You do not know that they have failed to meet the revised dates.

As a fellow holder I have no worries at all and certainly do not feel we are missing an RNS.

Patience my friend, patience.

[aleoap] 17/7/2011 09:52

Well it will be 18th July tomorrow and we still have no RNS. The company do not appear to be concerned with keeping investors informed. Why on earth put 'target dates' in an RNS, having already missed deadlines, and then fail to meet them again. I do question the competence of management unfortunately, and I do hope the funding for street parties and badminton stars that I read about are not paid for from the companies revenues, and rather the pockets of £200k+ per annum management.

Rant over.

[aleoap] 30/6/2011 16:28

Disappointed we have not received an RNS as of yet - I'm aware there is no requirement to issue anything, and they may be waiting on commissioning first, but still - hitting some deadlines early would make a nice change.

Saying that, max buy at the moment is 1000 shares at 36p - less than £400. And you can sell 50,000 at 35.5p. Looks like our seller is gone for now..

[aleoap] 29/6/2011 10:48

Have we seen the bottom? Max buy 2500 at 35p and can sell max 50,000 at a premium. I would think we get an RNS confirming that the following has indeed gone to plan, if they don't RNS it will be seen as further delays - they need to start delivering to their given timescales.

-- Construction of the additional 0.9mtpa CIL circuit capacity is progressing and is expected to be completed by end of June 2011.

[aleoap] 17/6/2011 13:50

Yes Saucepan, lots of newsflow due. Management have to start underpromising and overdelivering rather than the other way round. This is the opportunity to turn sentiment around.

[saucepan] 15/6/2011 09:45

Nice 6% move up. Whether that confirms the floor of the slide remains to be seen, but I am hopeful.

[horndean eagle] 14/6/2011 19:04

luckyjonah - Similar experiences myself previously. But got a reply back and also spoke to Patrick in the last couple of months. Im sure you will get a better reception if you try again.

[sporazene2] 13/6/2011 13:54

Further, the chart looks pretty negative, 29/30p is on the cards, which is where is may find some support

[sporazene2] 13/6/2011 13:53

Saucepan, I dont see the profit coming at ~£2m i'm afraid. Further I suspect that the 2012 forecast is not updated given the delay in the ramp up of the expanded plant and transition from the tailings to the main ore

[saucepan] 13/6/2011 09:30

Thanks again for the weekend discussion. I invested in PGL this morning.

The following is a snapshot of some of the fundamental data that attracted me, in case of interest:



Rolling P/E 2 = 3.13
Projected PEG = 0.04

[saucepan] 12/6/2011 16:01

Thanks for your thoughts; much appreciated.

[aleoap] 12/6/2011 15:46

Hi Saucepan, I don't mind talking to myself :) - I did with Condor Resources for nearly a year before the herd arrived.

Although I don't have my notes with me I don't expect a cash call before the current exploration programme and commissioning is complete. I would expect one early 2012 in my opinion to pursue a second dedicated plant to serve the economic Tersang and surrounding high tonnage - low grade resource. I believe this will be around 3 million tonnes per annum although the JORC resource updates will give further indication on this. From what I gather management are very excited about the blue-sky potential here.

I don't see the debt as an issue but each investor has their own risk perception so dyor and invest accordingly.

As mentioned earlier the commissioning has us move to 2 million tonnes per annum at Raub from the current 1.1mta. I estimate annual production to be at or around 40,000 oz pa in first quarter 2012. The company have not given any targets in this respect so again dyor.

I see this and GDP both as good plays. My money is in PGL however, and I have been taking advantage of the recent large seller to collect stock at what I believe is a giveaway price for a growing producer.