Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[aleoap] 21/3/2012 16:49

Can't help thinking my post no.826 is driving share price at the mo. The 2009 RNS stated 10,000,000 warrants to subscribe for 10,000,000 shares with an initial subscription price of 30 pence and an expiry date of 19 July 2012. The company has a pre-emptive right to re-purchase the warrants for cancellation. 5,000,000 of the warrants will have a cashless exercise option.

As A Kam indirectly holds a significant shareholding, along with the Royals et all then it is in their interests for no further dilution at this stage now funding has recently been secured.

In my opinion PGL are looking to re-purchase these warrants, and the lower the share price the better in which to negotiate purchase costs. I'm not 100% on how this works so dyor but I'm hoping we get an RNS on these warrants prior to any positive newsflow.

[aleoap] 15/3/2012 15:41

Well price action here doesn't suggest any positive news is forthcoming. Now a 100k, 50k and 199k loaded on the order book weighing us down. And can buy under 23p. No interested buyers here, we will close at 22.375p mid if no change today. That means a tad over £19m mcap. I would ordinarily be concerned however a quick look across the gold sector shows most are in the same boat. There is simply no large buy interest suggesting most funds believe gold is going lower or simply it is not yet time to pile in.

I disagree however, and believe there will be a further push north in H2 this year, targetting last year's highs. Sentiment can turn quickly in this sector. £8 billion can purchase in full all of london's listed gold exploration and producers, excluding only two RRS and YAU (these two make up £14 bill alone - YAU at over £8 bill). This is around 70 companies. It's quite evident that the money is currently swirling around the oil sector, what with the ever rising oilprice, it makes sense.

The problem with this of course is that when the oil price begins to come down, which the US and global economy need, these stocks will see money leave looking for the next asset to pump. We could see a final spike in oil if Iran/Israel kick off but that's where profits will be taken imo.

News events will continually bring us back to why gold is so important. From a UK government that continued to tell us that we can't borrow our way out of debt, to now where the chancellor is looking to take out 100 year loans where the capital is never repaid, but interest is charged forever. This was last done at the end of WW1, and are still held by treasury!

Simple fact is for the US, UK or whoever, if they stop printing money the game is up. Gold will continue to remind us until the day it all collapses. There is never enough money in the system to pay off previous debt and capital, and printing is the only way out. The whole thing rides on confidence, confidence that the currency is sound. They can keep printing forever, so long as the public majority believe the currency is sound there is no problem. More and more people seem to be questioning this now though.

Gold producers like this one, at under £20m mcap for what should be 50k oz pa end of 2012 are for me a no-brainer. Just looking again, approx £1.5 billion purchases around 80% of the whole of LSE gold sector. Or to put it another way, Afren AFR covers 80% of the gold sector at mcap £1.5billion.

Interesting times..

[aleoap] 08/3/2012 09:59

haha, they must have been listening. 199,000 and a 50,000 just loaded on the book

[aleoap] 08/3/2012 09:00

Good morning Sporazene. Yes lots of news due, see my post 824 re resource updates - the Raub East Lode one in particular I am looking forward to.

Monument mining recently issued an update on results and have increased grade this last year from 3.08g/t to 4.31g/t, processing recovery from 58.7% to 92.9% and subsequently gold produced from 13,793oz to 44,438oz. They are in the process of moving to a 1mtpa expansion.

Raub (East Lode) is currently 1.4g/t however we have not had an update since June 2008 on this resource. With a mixture of this and tailings once the crushing and milling circuit is in place and the 2mtpa plant is fully operational we should see 50k pa. With the size of the plant small changes to any metrics will have a significant change to production numbers.

I would hope the delays are due to the management here making sure we have the best possible operational system in place and fully optimised to achieve 50k pa plus by year end 2012.

Today is the first day in a while where we haven't had large sell orders on the order book. I remember when I took some stock I took out a 99,000 order but it was immediately replaced a little higher - 26.5p I think. Then following that a 199,000 at 29.5p. Yesterday we had a couple of 50,000 as well. There is obviously a large seller here and there has been for a while. They don't appear to be desperate to sell yet when there is a rise they hit the stock hard. Upto yesterday they were in effect saying 'this stock is going nowhere' loading the book with sell orders. Anyway, soon we will find out what the company has been upto.

[sporazene2] 07/3/2012 19:29

Aleoap, hows tricks?

I see that interims should be due any time, 22nd March last year.

We are also due resource updates before the end of March on Raub Oxide and Tersang.

The expanded plant would have been in commisioning for about 6 months now, would impagine that there will be clues in the production numbers to december to see how things have been progressing.

Would also be interesting to see if there are any clues for the full year in terms of the production numbers. Surely, we can expect next years number to june 2013 will be around 45-50k, even just on the tailings the new capacity could deliver 30K pa

[aleoap] 01/3/2012 09:24

The following is interesting from the 16th Feb 09 RNS:

'Peninsular will issue to the seller of the Notes, 10,000,000 warrants to
subscribe for 10,000,000 new ordinary shares of no par value in Peninsular
("Shares"), with an initial subscription price of 30 pence per Share (subject to
adjustments in certain conditions) and an expiry date of 19 July, 2012. Subject
to Jersey regulatory requirements the warrants will be freely transferable
though not listed and further provided that the Company has a pre-emptive right
to re-purchase the warrants for cancellation. 5,000,000 of the warrants will
have a cashless exercise option as long as the market price of the shares is not
more than twice the relevant Subscription Price.'

I don't believe we have had any news on whether PGL will buy these back for cancellation. I imagine PGL do not want to issue a further 10 million shares at the lowly price of 30p at this potentially transformational time in their growth story. The conspiracy theorist may even believe that it is in PGL's interest for the share price to stay well below 30p until after the 19th July 2012 to allow these to expire worthless. However, we have four pieces of news due imminently that should propel us over this level - IF they are not further delayed. Hmmm, interesting times.

[superbobtaylor] 27/2/2012 09:45

Aleoap, great to have your continuaed analysis. Agreed that on predicated news flow and production ramp up this looks like a steal. However I have been let down too many time to average down. I will consider adding if predicted news flow is forthcoming and positive. Obviously I may be too late by then.

You are braver than me!

SBT

[aleoap] 24/2/2012 14:10

It should be noted that many investors will not even begin research let alone invest in a producer that does not have a JORC of over 1 million oz.

Looking at previous RNS for PGL I am trying to establish what we may expect from the upgrades, both at Raub and at Tersang.

RAUB
At the time of listing (June 05) total identified resources at Raub comprised of a proven reserve of 180,000oz held in tailings and inferred resource of 59,000oz in East Lode shallow oxides.
15 May 06 - Inferred resource increased by 81% to 107,000oz gold.
13 Jul 06 - Inferred resource increased by 26% to 135,000oz gold.
8 Jan 07 - East Lode now at 213,000oz gold (Measured, Indicated and Inferred)
27 Sep 07 - Tailings proved ore reserves increased 12% to 202,000oz gold.
3 Jun 08 - 136,000oz in measured & indicated (previously 52,000oz) at East Lode

11 Nov 11 - Additional 21,800oz of indicated resource in tailings

So, since 3rd June 2008, the resource outside the old tailings has not had an update. Although as per all the RNS's in the almost 4 years passed we have had plenty of assay results and exploration. It will be very interesting to see what the last four years of drilling actually means in actual reserve upgrade.

Currently in East Lode:
Measured 62,000
Indicated 74,000
Inferred 82,000

Tailings:
Proved 202,000
Indicated 37,200

TERSANG
At time of listing 528,000oz non-JORC
15 Jan 07 - 'The company's expectation is that in due course, the amalgamtion and evaluation of the results of drilling on the northern and southern parts of the Tersang deposit will enable an updated resource estimate for the entire deposit to be compiled. The current estimate is of an inferred resource of 528,000oz, and the company's target is 1 million ounces.'
4 Oct 07 - 'Preparations are being made for the next phase of the Tersang drilling programme, which we intend will define further resources and take us closer to our target for the deposit of 1 million ounces.'
9 Mar 11 - 'The current exploration and drilling objective at Tersang is to define the initial Tersang resources to JORC standard by the end of Q3 2011. This will be followed, during the latter part of 2011 and the first half of 2012, by a high density drilling programme estimated at 20,000m of RC and 2,000m of diamond drilling aimed at the completion of the Tersang resource definition.'

So, minimum expectation here is for the 528,000oz of inferred non-JORC be converted to JORC. So nothing less than 528,000oz of inferred JORC resource. I would hope that some of this will be in the measured & indicated category, but I see that as a bonus at this time, as the high density drilling programme will cover this.

[aleoap] 23/2/2012 15:24

Raub Tailings - 239,200oz JORC
Raub Oxide - 218,000oz JORC

Tersang (Non-JORC) - 528,000oz

Total 985,200oz (with 528,000oz non JORC)

Therefore current valuations will not be taking into account Tersang area. Once both Raub and Tersang resource upgrades are with us by end of Q1 2012 we will move from 457,200oz JORC to over 1,000,000 JORC (Tersang will move to JORC compliant).

Then we have the commencement of the 2mtpa expansion by end of Q1 2012. This should almost double production to around 25,000oz pa using tailings. Following this we have the crushing and milling circuit commissioning and once operational
a blend of tailings and Raub oxide can be used. Working on 70% recovery for the tailings and 80% for the oxide I believe we can hit 50,000oz pa. This will be an almost tripling of gold production this year.

These two significant changes I believe should move us back to a more realistic valuation. All above figures are mine dyor etc etc.

[aleoap] 23/2/2012 11:01

Just a reminder for me - news due (from final results RNS):

1) The 2m tonnes per annum CIL circuit commenced commissioning during Q3 2011. Modifications are being made to the feed area and slurry section of the plant. Once complete, during Q1 2012, these modifications will also enable the CIL plant to take up its full capacity of 2mtpa from the existing tailings. These modifications alone are expected to give a step change in gold production, as the Company will be able to fully utilise the enlarged CIL circuit prior to the completion and commissioning of the new crushing and milling circuit.

2) The new crushing and milling circuit for the in-situ material is currently expected to commence commissioning in Q1 2012. Engineering and modification options are being investigated for the crushing and milling plant design for treating the in-situ material. These options are being considered to increase the overall feed mix flexibility of the plant.

3) At Raub a combined reverse circulation (RC) and diamond drilling (DD) programme, comprising of 24 RC holes and 13 diamond holes, has been completed and we are awaiting the final two DD holes assay results. The DD programme at Raub targeted the deeper (250m to 350m) lode structure that is beneath the more shallow oxidised and intermediate ore. The Raub resource update is expected towards the end of Q1 2012.

4) At Tersang 67 RC holes (for 5,046m) and 10 DD holes (for 1,098m) have been completed. This recent drilling confirmed the presence of mineralisation related to the main felsite and also a previously unknown and deeper mineralised intrusive to the west of the Tersang main hill. The Tersang assay data is currently being compiled and reviewed independently in order to define an updated, JORC compliant resource. This resource definition had previously been expected during Q4 2011, however it will now likely be available in Q1 2012 once some additional topographical survey work is completed.

Also worth remembering (just over 2 years remaining):
One of the Company's subsidiaries, RAGM has received a confirmation from the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority, the government's principal agency for the promotion and coordination of industrial development in Malaysia, that RAGM's Raub Tailings Project is entitled to "Pioneer Status". Under the Pioneer Status scheme, RAGM will be entitled to 85% tax exemption on its statutory income from the project for a period of 5 years commencing on the day that production reaches 30% of its planned capacity. Production from the tailings operations began in February 2009. RAGM's production reached 30% of its planned capacity in April 2009.

[aleoap] 23/2/2012 09:53

Against what I said earlier, I decided to double my position here this morning. All 25p and under. I see too much news in the next few weeks/months and at £20m mcap with gold pushing past $1764 - it's too cheap.

[aleoap] 15/2/2012 19:15

Oh by the way, I mentioned some time back that we may be looking at a whopping head and shoulders on the AIM chart (and others) and unless we clear 800 on AIM we could be in trouble. Well we cleared it, and I would be buying certain stocks heavily on any downward correction in the near future. Looks like we are going much higher this year now imo..QE3 anyone?

[aleoap] 15/2/2012 19:08

Who knows, one could argue it broke the downtrend line on the chart and has now gone back to test it. Although I've given up trying to chart this one. Totally news driven, and unfortunately 2011 was a very slow year with delay after delay. IF they get their fingers out and start beating expectations rather than underperforming we might see decent appreciation in the share price I currently have a target of around £1.20 per share on these within 18 months, sitting in my SIPP so in no rush. What's the market cap here, £20m - should be producing over 50k per oz with costs $700-$800, looks cheap however as some have mentioned is this just a lifestyle business for the directors...last years salary increase disappointed me. If you don't hit targets, you do not deserve an increase.

If there is a hint of good news/progress on the production front this stock has the potential to re-rate fairly quickly, as per the recent move from 22p-32p, when a big buyer wants in due to the shares in issue/available the stock does shift.

Still not tempted to add to my position here though, it's a hold for me. I've been scooping up PGD under 37p these last two days, and making nice profits on BLNX with the AOL deal (easiest money ever made - AOL deal in public domain 2 days before RNS).

[kickstart] 15/2/2012 17:47

All the way up and all the way back down in a few days....weird ? so what was that all about?

[aleoap] 02/2/2012 14:26

Back into auction..something set it off at 2pm..I can only assume news/RNS has been lodged

edit - well nothing so far. Guess we will find out soon enough..

[aleoap] 02/2/2012 14:24

Well out of auction but can't buy or sell..2:30pm RNS?

[biggest bill] 02/2/2012 14:23

I does look as if some news might be imminent. There has been a 40% rise in the share price in the last 2 weeks. Perhaps even some good news for a change?

[excellance] 02/2/2012 14:23

economic recovery looks certain = inflation = good for gold price stability and further strength...

[aleoap] 02/2/2012 14:20

True, i've forgotten what we are waiting for here. Resource update? Finally starting 2mtpa production? Who knows..

[biggest bill] 02/2/2012 14:18

If something actually is going on, private investors are always the last to know.

[aleoap] 02/2/2012 14:15

Something going on here..32p auction

[aleoap] 31/1/2012 10:30

Over 30p beckons here..2012 should be a much better year for PGL..over 50k p/a

[aleoap] 27/1/2012 19:19

Jonny,

Agree with all the above. Took a good slice of FOGL at 50p (just before the 43p placing mind but hey the disappointment didn't last long). My thoughts are that the share price will be 100p or thereabouts before BOR 1st result, sell original capital with rest in risk free. Whatever happens the rest stays until all BOR and FOGL drilling campaign ended.

I like watching the gold/silver ratio - anything over 55/1 and I'd be swapping some gold for silver. I think its around that at the moment. Same goes for if it gets under 30/1, swap some silver for gold. I'm not sure it would ever get below 10/1 but never say never..

Good to see a bit of volume in PGL today, maybe a precursor to some operational news/movement..this one just sitting in my portfolio snoozing away.

I've been tucking away at some AUL and FRR recently..risk/reward looks good imo

Sorry for o/t

[jonny flame] 27/1/2012 17:45

aleoap - it was Jim Rogers who said farmers will be driving the nice cars.

The average age of the farmer in north america is almost 60...same in Ireland...the UK...

Reckon we will see bubbles and manias in the following areas over the next few years;

1) Falklands oil stocks, should more oil be found that is, proving a potential new oil basin then expect the 5 stocks focused on the Falklands to do very well, my personal pick is FOGL

2) Precious metals, with silver out performing gold

3) Small/medium cap gold mining and exploration stocks, many are extremly cheap at the moment.

[aleoap] 22/1/2012 21:54

Well AIM breaking over 736 pretty strongly suprised me, although imo it doesn't remove the potential Head and Shoulders forming. We've now had 17 up days across the last 21 trading days, can it keep going? I'm not entirely sure what's driving this other than a technical bounce due to very oversold conditions and I'm seeing a lot of overhang's clearing due to distressed sellers i.e. Bluegold at MOG, PTR, DEO and others. Unless we clear 800 on AIM it is very possible that we see 350 on AIM again as the downward pressure kicks in, this figure comes from the possible head and shoulders when you measure the distance vertically from the highest point to the neckline which is then projected through the downside breakout.





It's certainly a very good environment for short term trading and I must admit I've been playing the game this last week, caught HMV before the weekend too so looking forward to taking some profits on that this week. Alot of oilers due to report soon SOLO/AEX on Ntorya-1, RXP on BNG 136 and SOU on Cataka-1 just next week. Obviously BOR kick of their drilling campaign too in the Falklands along with FOGL, it's sure going to be a busy time for the oil sector.

Oilers are the favourites at the mo, but I'm sure the gold miners will be looked upon favourably in H2 2012 once QE3 kicks in..