Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[scaramonga88] 03/11/2020 20:06

Always good to get alternative views so we don't get too carried away!On another forum some punter has put together the following calcs from the FS:"The total income for NdPr is 178 billion dollars over 50 years. However so any resource value in the ground is 1/10 that gives say 17.8 billion (NdPr at $40,000 a tonne) divide by 50 = $356M before a mine actually gets built. Target 25% margin for Longonjo NdPr only, 35% with other REOs on top"So crude comparison to an established Lynas (regardless of cash reserve): Their annual last financial year was $305m turnover with a loss of $19m. In the last 4 years they have averaged $320m a year and an average net income of $27m, so averaging less than 5% marg.Their share price currently sits at around $3 a share with similar amounts of shares in circulation. If Pensana doesn't dilute and achieves 35% net profit on a $350m turnover from Longonjo alone thats a whopping $100m plus. Thats before we consider a rise in ndpr price, the fact they could double the production with a reduced mine life, plus the Coola potential and further exploration...Appreciate theres a very long way to go but I would be interested for someone who is more qualified than me to take a stab at what the potential stock price could be if the stars align??

[rvsy2] 03/11/2020 18:54

YUMYUM
I will look forward to reading what you have to say after we get the update on the BFS which is due by 16 November ( only 2 weeks later than planned).

[yumyum] 03/11/2020 18:31

hey Granny wiseacre.....I just meant to point out that comparing Lynas to Pensana has its limitations. One is operating and has A$500m in the bank for projects, whilst Pensana is at an earlier stage. How long will Pensana's plant take to build ...and its cost? And the refinery ? In Angola I am not sure the costs are necessarily lower than Oz are they ? Maybe the UK is cheaper than Malaysia, but I doubt that. Anyway, I take your points. I am learning.

rvsy2....fair enough....mostly I was pointing out that MP and Lynas were operational and had already done their main capital raise....so quite a lot further advanced than Pensana. We do not KNOW Pensana's plans. We were meant to have a BFS last month ;-) ....so let's wait for that eh ?

I like Pensana but treat its share price with caution (hence I sold at 65p).

[rvsy2] 03/11/2020 14:52

I have been very suspicious of YumYum since he/she started posting and doubt if YY ever was a shareholder.

None of the posts make positive comments about Pensana's progress or future plans
which is inconsistent with YY's assertions that about plans to become a shareholder again.

Why would someone who has nothing positive to say about a company want to buy its shares ?

YY constantly tries to draw unfavourable comparisons between Pensana and Mountain Pass and Lynas Corp.

YY's posts are reminiscent of someone who is on a mission to post negative comments to undermine shareholder confidence and I would urge readers of this thread to treat YYs posts with caution.

[scaramonga88] 03/11/2020 12:00

Nice to see the ship steadying. Hopefully a slow and stable climb now over the next few weeks ahead of what should be exciting news ?

[yumyum] 03/11/2020 08:49

Fair points Scaramanga88. I agree with you really. I am taking a short term view of share price. I will be buying Pensana.

Thank you herlat1. I will take a look. Interesting.

Chinasyndrome, I suppose there is room for a number of producers. Pensana competing with Lynas sounds very attractive in theory.

[chinasyndrome] 02/11/2020 21:45

Well said Herlat and Scara. Longonjo and Mt Weld are arguably comparable at this point in time but Longonjo and the additional potential to add to Pensana's Resource base from Coola, Monta-verdi, deep drilling and at least four other sites in the Nth EL blow all future comparisons away.

It will eventually come down to Operating Costs, and Australia has always suffered from the "Tyranny of Distance" syndrome. Anything produced in Australia is subject to a double whammy on transport costs ~ supplies coming in and product going out ! add to that some of the highest wages in the World and there is no way Lynas will be competitive !

[herlat1] 02/11/2020 21:18

YumYum have you checked out Lynas's presentation at the recent Diggers and Dealers Conference where they clearly set out the "unique challenges" they are facing with downstream processing in Australia?

They are clearly concerned about the high capital and operating costs as well as the lengthy approval process and are talking about a 2025 production start date.

They have also gone public on the need for State Government support to make the project viable in the face of these higher costs.

This is against the backdrop of the clock ticking on establishing the new waste disposal facility in Malaysia.

Pensana by contrast has stated in its most recent quarterly that it is looking to establish its facility in an enterprise zone in Merseyside, Humber or Tees Valley with internationally competitive rates for labour, reagents and power.

So how much more do you estimate that the Capital and Operating costs will be for the Lynas facility located in the middle of Western Australia compared with the Pensana facility located in an enterprise zone at a Port in the UK?

[scaramonga88] 02/11/2020 12:48

It will, but short sighted to get worried about a small delay whilst the company is clearly undertaking due diligence to ensure long term potential is maximised. Lockdowns, Brexit, US election all taking their toll at the moment driving uncertainty but confident in the management team and potential of this business. In 2 weeks time the election is over, potential for a Brexit deal, updates on vaccines and a RNS which hopefully clears up any confusion and provides a clear path for Pensana... people panic selling now may seriously regret it

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 11:49

maybe the update on the BFS will quantify how big is the delay, if any, to breaking ground on the project in January 2021.

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 11:04

wiseacre, Lynas is not only further ahead in terms of development it is an actual producer. And it has A$522.0m in the bank ! Pensana is one of many wannabes. There is no actual shortage of REE....it is just a question of who is the most efficient and economic. Grade, cost of mining etc. I will let you know when I buy back in to Pensana, which I surely will.

[swanvesta] 02/11/2020 10:55

The UPDATE on the BFS in a fortnight's time.

[cyberbub] 02/11/2020 10:52

Is it the BFS, or an "update" on the BFS?

[wiseacre] 02/11/2020 10:41

Worth noting that the market value of Lynas is ten times that of Pensana and, though it is further down the road in terms of development, it is far less attractive. The current retrenchment in Pensana's share price is no more than should be expected. If Yumyum wants to get back in, as he suggests, he has the opportunity before the BFS in a fortnight's time.

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 08:58

Thank you Chinasyndrome. I am learning as I go along. The new Kalgoorlie refinery (processing plant if you prefer) has ordered the big kiln and is expected operational in mid-2023.

[chinasyndrome] 02/11/2020 08:41

Good on you Yumyum, you have just demonstrated to all that you don't have a clue about this Industry !

Their plant in Malaysia is not a refinery, they produce a clean Oxide which gets shipped to Japan for refining. The Texas plan was put up by America to try and gazump Japan, but I doubt if it will go ahead because the Yanks are already trying to screw Lynas !

The Malaysian plant is being forced to close down and only has a very limited life left. That is why some bright spark thinks it is a good idea to build a new one in Kalgoorlie, one of the most expensive towns in Australia for Labor, Power and Transport !

Which makes Pensana's plan to do the downstream processing in the UK a game changer ~ cheap power, relatively cheap work force, close to reagent suppliers and customers ie minimal transport costs.

Still no Exploration rigs at MP !

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 08:23

lol, Chinasyndrome.

Lynas's refinery is in Malaysia, not Kalgoorlie, and they are building one in Texas.

Of their Malaysian operations they say: ''At LAMP, we undertake a complex series of refining and concentration operations to produce high quality rare earth minerals.''

MP have no refinery, although they intend to build one at MP. Their REE currently all get sent to China for refining.

[chinasyndrome] 02/11/2020 01:23

Apologies to everybody else, She did use the word "Refinery", when in reality it is "up-stream Processing", Lynas call it LAMP,

Whatever it is, we don't know yet, But it should be noted that there have been stellar advances made in just the last two-three years in REE separation, if it is anything like the Gold Industry was, we can probably expect a much more cost efficient/ profitable process in the UK than at either Kalgoorlie or MP !

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 00:39

Chinasyndrome, how much equity money do you think Pensana need to raise ? And when ?

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 00:28

To be clear, I own no shares or any interest of any kind in MP/FVAC, and intend to buy again shares in Pensana. When they have adjusted down a bit more perhaps.

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 00:22

let's see what the compmany says in a few weeks' time. They, Pensana, probably know best. I assume they keep silent about the refinery and costs/IRR.....dilution.

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 00:17

and maybe no drilling - FVAC bring the money ;-)

[yumyum] 02/11/2020 00:15

which statements were stupid ?

MP, I agree no drill results.

[chinasyndrome] 02/11/2020 00:09

Yumyum, Do some research before making stupid statements ~ the only other REE mining company in the free world ~ Lynas was well into building their Refinery before they commenced mining Mt Weld.

Besides which Great Wall already has Refineries lined up to take our initial concentrate in China ! Longonjo has the capacity to feed several refineries and will need to if the World is to have any hope of achieving the Green Revolution.

Still can't see any exploration drill rigs at MP, all they seem to be doing is pushing back the pit walls to gain access to the bottom of the Pit ~ I would hate to think what the REAL strip ratio for that last 214kt of Proven ore is going to be !