Metro Baltic Share Discussion Threads

[lbo] 19/8/2008 13:08

Slump of 32pc in Latvian bank's profits deals blow to Desmond



Which country will slither down the slippery slope next?

[lbo] 27/6/2008 14:30

Those in the emerging market universe are not immune to flirting with recession, as highlighted by the Baltic states. After a decade of fast growth, all three Baltics look headed for a sharp slowdown, with some analysts calling recessions. Both Latvia and Estonia contracted in Q1 (-1.9% and -0.5%, respectively), while Lithuanian growth was largely unchanged. Sagging domestic demand is the main driver of the slowdown, propelled by tighter credit and a property-market collapse. Adding to Baltic woes is double-digit inflation, which is eroding consumers' spending power and leading to talk of stagflation.

[waldron] 20/6/2008 19:45

Key ocean mission goes into orbit
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News



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The satellite launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

A space mission that will be critical to our understanding of climate change has launched from California.

The Jason-2 satellite will become the primary means of measuring the shape of the world's oceans, taking readings with an accuracy of better than 4cm.

Its data will track not only sea level rise but reveal how the great mass of waters are moving around the globe.

This information will be fundamental in helping weather and climate agencies make better forecasts.

The satellite left Earth at 0746 GMT atop a Delta-2 rocket from the Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The spacecraft, built by Thales Alenia Space, represents the joint efforts of the US and French space agencies (Nasa and CNES), and the US and European organisations dedicated to studying weather and climate from orbit (Noaa and Eumetsat).

Down below

Jason-2 will provide a topographic map of 95% of the Earth's ice-free oceans every 10 days. Although we think of our seas as being flat, they are actually marked by "hills" and "valleys", where the highs and lows may be as much as two metres apart.

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How Jason-2 will probe the oceans


Elevation is a key parameter for oceanographers. Just as surface air pressure reveals what the atmosphere is doing above, so ocean height will betray details about the behaviour of water down below.

The data gives clues to temperature and salinity. When combined with gravity information, it will also indicate current direction and speed.

The oceans store vast amounts of heat from the Sun; and how they move that energy around the globe and interact with the atmosphere are what drive our climate system.

"The ocean constitutes the long-term memory of the climate system; the time-scales over which the ocean is changing are the climatic timescales," explained Mikael Rattenborg, the director of operations at Eumetsat.

"In order to understand climate, in order to be able to predict the evolution of the atmosphere over months, years, and decades even, you need to understand the ocean."

Number one

Jason-2 is a continuation of a programme that started in 1992 with the Topex/Poseidon mission and is currently maintained by the Jason-1 satellite launched in 2001.

JASON-2 SPACECRAFT
1. Advance Microwave Radiometer - measures signal delay caused by water vapour
2. GPS antennas - ensures knowledge of precise orbit path
3. Poseidon-3 altimeter - measures sea level
4. Doris antenna - tracking and positioning control
5. Laser Retroreflector Array (LRA) - tracks and calibrates measurements
Satellite mass: 525kg (1,155lb) Power generation: 511 watts
Satellite height: 3m (9ft 8in) Orbit: 1,338km (831 miles)
(Source: Eumetsat, Cnes, Nasa)

The project provides the global reference data for satellite-measured ocean height.

Although other spacecraft in service today can acquire similar data sets, none can match the precision achieved by Jason-1; and Jason-2, when in service, will be the benchmark against which all other spacecraft will be judged and calibrated.

At the heart of the latest mission is the Poseidon 3 solid-state altimeter. The instrument constantly bounces microwave pulses off the sea surface. By timing how long the signal takes to make the return trip, it can determine sea surface height.

Additionally, the signal can indicate the height of waves and wind speed.

"It is not a revolution between Jason-1 and Jason-2; it is an evolution, because the main objective is to ensure continuity," explains Francois Parisot, the Jason-2 project chief at Eumetsat.

"Nevertheless, there are some improvements in the instruments. We hope to make better measurements closer to the coast [and over inland waters and rivers]; and also, we will deliver near-realtime products - products that will be available within three hours of the measurements."

Whale watching

The latter will be particularly useful in storm prediction. Jason will see the surface waters rise as warm eddies fuel hurricanes. The data will tell meteorologists how a storm is likely to intensify and allow them to issue better, more timely warnings.

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Jason-2 data will have many other uses that may not be immediately obvious. Industry will take the information to make decisions about when conditions are most suitable for undersea drilling or cable laying.

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Jason can help identify where wreckage or pollution will drift; and the satellite will assist marine biologists as they track whales by pinpointing waters with the potential to be prime feeding and breeding grounds.

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One very important use will be in maritime navigation.

"Now that the fuel price is going up, saving fuel for the companies that run ships has become very sensitive; and knowing the currents, you can select your route so that you go faster and save fuel," said Philippe Escudier, a space oceanography at CLS (Collecte Localisation Satellites), Toulouse, France.

"You can save up to 5% on fuel consumption by making best use of the currents."

Formation flying

Jason-2 will spend its first few months flying a "tandem mission" with Jason-1.

The two spacecraft will be positioned so that they sweep around the Earth, one following the other, with a separation of just 60 seconds.

This will enable, essentially, the two satellites to measure the same patch of ocean surface at very nearly the same time.

Scientists will use this opportunity to cross-calibrate the instruments so that when Jason-1 is retired (or fails), the future data collected by its successor will be directly comparable with past records.

This continuity of information will be critical in recognising long-term trends in ocean behaviour. It is the data which underpins the observation that global sea level is rising by about three millimetres per year.

Once the tandem phase is completed, Jason-1 will be moved to the side, doubling the return of data. The importance of the Jason programme means both spacecraft will almost certainly be run for as long as they are serviceable.

Discussions are already in progress on a Jason-3 satellite. Given Europe's role in the project, there is a compelling case for the next mission to be included in the GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) programme. This would attract significant EU money.


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Eumetsat's Francois Parisot describes how the spacecraft works

Story from BBC NEWS:


Published: 2008/06/20 08:34:52 GMT

[waldron] 15/6/2008 10:30

Heavy-rain forecasts 'to improve'
The UK Meteorological Office says it has improved its ability to pinpoint where and when heavy rain will occur.

Forecasts of severe downpours will now be issued up to 24 hours earlier, it says, giving local authorities more time to prepare flood control measures.

The Met Office is also assembling a team of specialists who will issue the early alerts to emergency services.

Last summer, a series of unprecedented floods affected tens of thousands of homes and caused £3bn worth of damage.

"The events of last summer have focused the attention of all agencies involved in severe weather and flood forecasting," said Paul Davis, the Met Office's extreme rainfall service manager.

"The Met Office has accelerated the delivery of its science and technology capabilities in order to meet the challenges ahead."

The developments include:

A system called STEPS, which models radar data to provide predictions of surface rainfall in order to pinpoint locations of extreme rainfall several hours before it occurs
Software that creates multiple forecasts up to two days in advance, allowing forecasters to assess the degree of uncertainty surrounding possible extreme weather events
A computer model that forecasts how rainstorms will evolve, which will enable more precise predictions of rain intensity and location
During the 2007 floods, England and Wales experienced the greatest volume of rainfall since records began in 1766.


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Met Office head of forecasting explains the improvements

Mr Davis said this was the main reason why there was such widespread devastation.

"The weather forecasts and alerts to emergency responders issued last summer were both accurate and timely," he said.

"But the intensity and impact of the rain that fell... was wholly unprecedented."

In a number of cases, the flooding was not predicted by the Environment Agency's flood warning system because it was a result of rainwater overwhelming already saturated drains and surfaces and did not involve rivers or coastal flooding.

Sir Michael Pitt, chairman of the review of the response to the 2007 floods, welcomed the Met Office's announcement.





"The events of 2007, where the public was given technical warnings which they often could not interpret, without advice on what action they should take, must not be repeated."
He added that his final report, expected to be published towards the end of June, would call on the Met Office and Environment Agency to work together to "model and warn against all sources of flooding".

"This will improve the speed and usefulness of flood warnings and ensure the public receive clear and consistent advice," Sir Michael explained.

"Measures like this would have reduced the confusion experienced by the public in 2007 and will reduce the impact of future flooding."

Story from BBC NEWS:


Published: 2008/06/13 23:15:40 GMT

[grupo guitarlumber] 30/5/2008 20:44

A direct hurricane hit could push oil to $150




NEW YORK (AP) - Meteorologists are predicting a busy hurricane season this
year, and any direct hit on the Gulf of Mexico's extensive oil and gas
infrastructure could easily send already sky-high oil prices rocketing past $150
a barrel.
But predicting whether, much less where a big storm will strike, is tricky
business. Energy markets haven't priced in a potential catastrophe, and won't
factor in a hurricane until a storm actually forms.
The 2005 hurricane season was one of the most destructive in history. It
sent oil prices soaring into the then-unfathomable $60s. Natural gas futures
rose above $14 per 1,000 cubic feet, prices that haven't been seen since.
But oil trades at double that amount today, and a turbulent summer in the
Gulf could easily send prices well beyond the record $135 per barrel it reached
last week.
"If we get anything that disrupts Gulf production in a meaningful way ... I
think it could easily push prices to the $150 level," said Brad Samples, an
analyst at Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Ky.
The Gulf is home to hundreds of oil and gas drilling platforms and pipelines
which are typically shut down when a storm approaches. Hurricanes can damage
platforms or scatter pipelines, and that can take months to repair.
Storms also disrupt tanker traffic and the Gulf Coast ports that receive the
vast majority of the nation's petroleum imports. The huge refineries that dot
the coast grind to a halt when a hurricane approaches land, driving the price of
gasoline and other petroleum products upward.
"There's a lot of areas of infrastructure that can be disrupted," said Jim
Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the 2008 Atlantic
hurricane season, which begins June 1, could be slightly busier than average,
with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming. Two to five of those
storms could be major, NOAA said.
A separate forecaster, William Gray's team at Colorado State University, is
calling for eight hurricanes, four of them major. On average, 5.9 hurricanes
form in the Atlantic each year.
However, hurricane forecasts have historically been erratic in their
accuracy. In 1989, Gray predicted a relatively mild hurricane season. That year,
seven hurricanes and four tropical storms killed 84 people in the U.S. In 2005,
Gray's team forecast eight hurricanes. Instead, 15 hurricanes, including
Katrina, struck. The next year, his team predicted nine hurricanes; only five
formed.
Over the two hurricane seasons since Katrina, forecasters have routinely
predicted lots of storms. Both years proved to be mild.
Ritterbusch said hurricane predictors have been way off the past couple of
years.
"I don't think you're going to get that type of a price response unless you
get a dramatic storm like we did with Katrina," he said.
Still, Samples notes, two years with little hurricane activity means we
might be due for a big storm this year: "The probability tables are looking
favorable for us at this point."
--
Associated Press Writer Allen G. Breed, in Raleigh, N.C., contributed to
this report.

[grupo guitarlumber] 30/5/2008 09:03

Up to 9 hurricanes possible in 2008 Atlantic hurricane season




MIAMI (Thomson Financial) - The Miami-based National Hurricane Center
forecast an especially active 2008 weather season, saying there could be up to
nine hurricanes and 12 tropical storms in the Atlantic region.
The meteorologists forecast that during the hurricane season -- which
officially starts Sunday and runs through the end of November -- there will be
between six and 12 tropical storms powerful enough to be named, and between six
and nine hurricanes.
Of those, five could reach destructive levels, meaning hurricanes of
Category Three or above on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, with Category
Five being the most destructive.
The Hurricane Center collects information on hurricanes from different
sources, including special "hurricane hunter" aircraft equipped with high-tech
instruments that fly over the hurricane collecting data.
Experts say most people living in hurricane-prone areas of the U.S.
coastline are ill-prepared for a disaster.
"The day something bad happens isn't the day to start preparing for it,"
said Mark Brennan, a sociologist with University of Florida's Institute of Food
and Agricultural Sciences.
Brennan called on authorities to train volunteers to work in areas that
could be hit by hurricanes. "There are still plenty of volunteer gaps that need
to be filled," he said.
The most hurricane-prone U.S. region is the southeastern coastline, running
from the states of North Carolina to Texas. The region is home to some 35
million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Despite the risks, during the last half century more than 25 million people
moved to these areas, with the majority -- 15 million -- living in Florida,
according to Census Bureau figures.
In early April a University of Colorado team led by William Gray, who has
been in the hurricane predicting business for 25 years, forecast that there
would be 15 tropical storms during the season, eight of which will hit hurricane
strength and four of which would be major.
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making
landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century
average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach, a scientist on Gray's team.
Klotzbach predicted a "very active hurricane season this year, but not as
active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons".
In 2004 and 2005 hurricanes Frances, Jeanna and Katrina ripped through the
Caribbean and hit the U.S. coast, leaving a trail of destruction and death in
its path.
Some of the 21 names that would be used for tropical storms this year include
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Gustav, Ike, Laura, Nana, Paloma, Rene, Teddy and
Vicky.

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afp/ejp

[lbo] 11/4/2008 15:35

As the IMF warns, foreign borrowing in eastern Europe from the Baltics to the Balkans is out of control. The fuse has been set on each of these time-bombs. Some are now detonating. If the ECB continues to set monetary policy for the tastes of the Bundesbank for much longer, it will endanger the very project of European unity it was supposed to cement

[lbo] 21/2/2008 13:22

Baltic property boom appears to be finished

[ariane] 15/1/2008 18:29

U.K. Issues Flood Warnings as Rain Sweeps Country (Update1)

By Alex Morales

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. issued 53 flood warnings as heavy rain and winds gusting to severe gale force swept across the south and west. Parts of western England hit in the summer by the worst floods in 60 years were warned of more inundations.

The Met Office, the government forecaster, warned of heavy rain in Wales, the West Midlands and southwestern England, with severe gales, gusting up to 70 miles (113 kilometers) an hour, predicted for London and Southeast England.

``The heavy rain could lead to flooding in some areas and cause disruption to transport networks,'' the Met Office said on its Web site. ``That rain will be accompanied by strong southerly winds with gusts to gale or severe gale force over southern and southeastern England.''

The flood warnings affect parts of the River Severn by the towns of Gloucester, Tewkesbury and Worcester, the Environment Agency said on its Web site. The three towns were hit by flooding in July when the Severn burst its banks, inundating thousands of homes and businesses.

``We are always ready to respond to whatever the weather throws at us,'' Julie Girling, Gloucestershire County Council's cabinet member for the environment, said on the council's Web site. ``It is also important that householders whose properties are usually affected by flooding take their own precautions.''

Other places issued flood warnings including Oxford, Bedford, Hereford, Totnes, Windsor and Kingston-upon Thames. Warnings were in place along rivers including the Thames, the Severn, the Great Ouse, the Wye, the Avon, the Teise, the Trent and the Derwent. Another 158 places were on flood watch.

A flood warning is issued when ``flooding of homes and businesses is expected.'' A flood watch is issued when ``flooding of low-lying land and roads is expected,'' according to the Environment Agency Web site.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at [e-mail] .

Last Updated: January 15, 2008 07:55 EST

[waldron] 25/11/2007 06:37

Weather disasters 'getting worse'
The number of weather-related disasters has quadrupled over the past 20 years and the world should do more to prepare for them, the aid agency Oxfam says.
Population increases mean more people are affected when catastrophic weather events take place, it says in a report.

Global warming is to blame for the growing number of weather disasters, Oxfam adds.

An average of 500 such disasters are now taking place each year, compared to 120 in the 1980s, the report says.

The number of floods has increased six-fold over the same period.

Small disasters ignored

The agency expresses particular concern about the increase in small and medium-sized weather events, which it says affect great numbers of people, but do not attract as much international aid as large, well-publicised natural disasters.

The report argues that climate change is responsible for the growing number of weather-related disasters - more intense rain, combined with frequent droughts, make damaging floods much more likely.


You get this spiral downwards of vulnerability and destitution
John McGrath, Oxfam

The increasing number of weather events has been accompanied by large global population increases, and Oxfam says this means more people are being forced to live in areas which are vulnerable to the effects of the weather changes.

"They're going to forests, to jungles, to mountains... but these are just the very places that have been more affected by intense rain... and that in turn actually increases the displacement... so you get this spiral downwards of vulnerability and destitution," says Oxfam's John McGrath.

Unless the global aid community begins preparing for the future growth in weather-events, Oxfam warns, its ability to respond to natural disasters will be overwhelmed.


Story from BBC NEWS:


Published: 2007/11/25 02:43:16 GMT

[waldron] 16/8/2007 19:37

Atlantic yields climate secrets
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website



Scientists have painted the first detailed picture of Atlantic ocean currents crucial to Europe's climate.
Using instruments strung out across the Atlantic, a UK-led team shows that its circulation varies significantly over the course of a year.

Writing in the journal Science, they say it may now be possible to detect changes related to global warming.

The Atlantic circulation brings warm water to Europe, keeping the continent 4-6C warmer than it would be otherwise.

As the water reaches the cold Arctic, it sinks, returning southwards deeper in the ocean.


I think this is a major step forward for our understanding of ocean circulation
Stuart Cunningham

Some computer models of climate change predict this Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, of which the Gulf Stream is the best-known component, could weaken severely or even stop completely as global temperatures rise, a scenario taken to extremes in the Hollywood movie The Day After Tomorrow.
Last year the same UK-led team published evidence that the circulation may have weakened by about 30% over half a century.

But that was based on historical records from just five sampling expeditions, raising concerns that the data was not robust enough to provide a clear-cut conclusion.

Rapid changes

The key for scientists, then, has been to measure and understand how the circulation varies naturally, making it much easier to pick out any changes related to man-made global warming.


This has been the goal of the Rapid/Mocha (Rapid Climate Change/Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array) project; and its first results show that the circulation varies substantially, by a factor of eight, even during a single year.

"I think this is a major step forward for our understanding of ocean circulation," said Stuart Cunningham from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in Southampton, one of the project's senior scientists.

"The Atlantic Ocean carries a quarter of the global northwards heat flux, so having the information to plug into climate models will be a major adddition," he told the BBC News website.

But measuring long-term variation is, if anything, even more important. Man-made warming could drive the flow downwards, but so could natural climate cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

All five of the historical flow values documented in last year's paper, for example, fit within the range of variability measured here, making it very hard to argue that these observations found a long-term trend.


"We will measure very quickly any sudden shifts," commented NOC's Professor Harry Bryden.
"We already think we can define changes bigger than two Sverdrups (about 10% of the average flow; one Sverdrup (Sv) is defined as a flow of one million cubic metres of water per second).

"But the reality is that anything we measure over 10 years even is going to be labelled interannual variability at the moment."

Strung out

Making the measurements has not been a trivial matter.

Early in 2004, NOC researchers deployed 19 sets of instruments during a voyage across the Atlantic at 26.5 degrees North, from the north-western coast of Africa to the Bahamas.

US investigators subsequently installled further moorings on the western side of the ocean.

Each set of instruments is strung out along a cable which is tethered to the sea floor at the bottom end, and to a float at the top.


The exact instruments used vary between moorings, but typically they measure flow, salinity, temperature and water pressure.
The instruments were left in place for just over a year, then the team made a second cruise to recover data.

This has given researchers a real-time picture of water flows inside the ocean, from top to bottom and side to side.

But this is just part of the mechanism transporting heat northwards from the tropics to the western shores of Europe.

At 26.5N, the Gulf Stream itself shoots along a narrow channel between the Bahamas and the coast of Florida. The strength of this has been measured for decades using a disused submarine telephone cable - as sea water, an electrical conductor, flows over the cable, it induces a voltage which is continuously measured by scientists in Miami.

A third component of the circulation is movement at the ocean's surface driven by winds, which can be measured nowadays by satellite.

The scientists had to combine these three datasets to calculate the average flow northwards, and by how much it varies.

[e-mail]




Story from BBC NEWS:


Published: 2007/08/16 18:07:59 GMT

[waldron] 30/7/2007 07:50

Last Updated: Monday, 30 July 2007, 02:50 GMT 03:50 UK

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Hurricane boost 'due to warm sea'
By Matt McGrath
BBC environmental reporter



Hurricanes have become more frequent over the past century
A new analysis of Atlantic hurricanes says their numbers have doubled over the last century.
The study says that warmer sea surface temperatures and changes in wind patterns caused by climate change are fuelling much of the increase.

Some researchers say hurricanes are cyclical and the increase is just a reflection of a natural pattern.

But the authors of this study say it is not just nature - they say the frequency has risen across the century.

Two-decade rise

Hurricanes are a spinning vortex of winds that swirl around an eye of low pressure.

Thunder clouds surround the edges of these storms and they can wreak devastation on people and property when they hit land - most famously in the case of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005.

Scientific analyses in recent years suggest hurricane numbers have increased since the mid-1980s.

This new study, published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in London, looks at the frequency of these storms from 1900 to the present and it says about twice as many form each year now compared to 100 years ago.

The authors say that man-made climate change, which has increased the temperature of the sea surface, is the major factor behind the increase in numbers.

"Over the period we've had natural variability in the frequency of storms, which has contributed less than 50% of the actual increase in our view," said Dr Greg Holland from the United States National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, who authored the report.

"Approximately 60%, and possibly even 70% of what we are seeing in the last decade can be attributed directly to greenhouse warming," he said.

Experts say that 2007 will be a very active season with nine hurricanes forecast, of which five are expected to be intense.

[ariane] 27/7/2007 06:54

UK forecasts to zoom in on towns
Weather forecasters will soon be able to zoom in on regions that are the size of a town, UK meteorologists have said.
Currently, accurate forecasts are limited to county-sized areas; but a supercomputer to be introduced at the Met Office will give much finer detail.

Experts said this would help planning for extreme weather events, like the UK's recent downpours, as they could pinpoint areas most likely to be hit.

The Met Office said the forecasts would be fully available by 2011.

Speaking at a press briefing in London, Dr Brian Golding, head of forecasting research at the Met Office, said: "There are areas in which the forecasts we produce at the moment fall short of the ideal."

He said that the forecasts issued in the hours before last week's deluge were accurate on a large scale, but, when examined in more detail, could not pinpoint the towns and rivers that would be most effected.

He said: "We are focusing in on how to get that information better."

Quantifying probability

Supercomputer upgrades to the current Met Office systems, to be introduced in 2009, will help meteorologists to predict the weather down to areas that are less than five square kilometres, rather than being limited to areas that are about 60 sq km.

It would be like using a 15 megapixel digital camera instead of a one megapixel one, said Dr Golding.

The new supercomputer, along with new modelling research, will also help meteorologists to measure the accuracy of their forecasts.


Dr Golding said: "When we give a warning, particularly a severe weather warning, there are actions that can be taken, but some of them are quite costly and people want to know how sure we are of the forecast."

The supercomputer will allow meteorologists to run computer models with a multitude of slight variations.

He said: "If they are all pointing to the same story, then we can have confidence in that prediction; if they are all pointing to different outcomes, then the particular event is much less likely."

The supercomputer, which will be about 10 times more powerful than the Met Office's current computing power, will cost about £100m.

However, Met Office scientists cautioned that having greater forecasting power alone would not be enough to improve planning for severe weather.

Dr Golding said: "We are working with the Environment Agency and other government agencies to work out how we can use this information to best effect."

More rain

The rainfall experienced by the UK this summer has made it the wettest early summer period experienced since 1766; meanwhile, southern Europe has been suffering from record breaking heatwaves.


Extreme weather events like these would become more frequent in the coming decades, other Met Office scientists speaking at the briefing said.

Dr Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said: "We no longer have a stationary climate - what we thought of as a one in 200 year event in the past is no longer relevant."

A recent paper published in the journal Nature suggested a significant human influence on global rainfall patterns.

Scientists said that globally wetter areas were getting wetter and drier areas were getting drier.

The study suggested that in the future the UK would have increasingly wet winters and drier summers, Dr Stott, who was one of its authors, said.

However, when it did rain it would rain harder, he added.

This summer's downpours have been caused by a broad band of low pressure sitting across the UK; while in Europe, high pressure systems bringing hot air in from Africa have boosted the temperatures.


SUMMER 2006
In a "normal" summer, the Atlantic jetstream directs areas of low pressure, which bring cloud and rain, to the north of the UK. High pressure systems over Europe and the Atlantic bring warm, settled conditions.
Pressure chart: 29/6/06. Source: Met Office



SUMMER 2007
This summer, the jetstream is flowing further south allowing low pressure systems to sweep straight over the centre of Britain. It is also pulling in warmer air from the subtropics and Africa which is sweeping over south-eastern Europe.
Pressure chart: 24/07/07. Source: Met Office


Story from BBC NEWS:


Published: 2007/07/26 15:20:21 GMT

[grupo guitarlumber] 21/7/2007 07:20

U.K. Issues Severe-Weather Warnings in England, Wales (Update2)

By Robin Stringer and Camilla Hall

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Severe-weather warnings were issued for most of England and Wales, where downpours were predicted to dump up to 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) of rain, forecasters said. Some train services were halted by flooding.

Central and eastern parts of England were most at risk of ``extremely'' heavy rain, thunder and lightning, the government's Met Office weather agency said on its Web site.

Train operator First Great Western advised passengers not to travel today and suspended some services in southern and central England, according to its Web site. Virgin Trains, part of Virgin Group Ltd., canceled its CrossCountry services between Birmingham and Gloucester, the company said on its Web site.

``It's going to be a wet month,'' John Hammond, a Met Office spokesman, said in a telephone interview. ``It's a stark contrast to last July, when we had a lot of warm weather.'' This month isn't expected to be as wet as July 1988, the wettest July on record, Hammond said.

The Environment Agency, which maintains flood defenses, issued two flood warnings on its Web site for areas around the northeastern River Hull.

Heavy rain is expected to move north across England and Wales with risks of local flooding. The downpours will probably weaken gradually late today, the Met Office said.

The U.K., which suffered flooding in several towns and cities last month, had its wettest June since records began in 1914, the Met Office said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robin Stringer in London at [e-mail] ; Camilla Hall in London at [e-mail] .

Last Updated: July 20, 2007 10:06 EDT

[waldron] 10/7/2007 11:05

Weather Lottery confident of growth over next 12 months


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Weather Lottery PLC said it was confident
of growth over the next 12 months.
It based its optimism on the fact that it has received a "significant"
number of equiries about its Weather Lottery database, using the 75,000 stg it
raised from a just-completed share placement to employ more sales agents.
The group added that it expects the 5.0 mln new shares to start trading on
AIM on July 13, bringing the total number of ordinary shares outstanding to
83.3 mln.
Following the admission, non-executive chairman Andy Moore will hold 13.7
mln shares or a 16.45 pct stake in the company, Weather Lottery added.
[e-mail]
npr/vs

[waldron] 27/6/2007 09:33

ABB delivers the main component for the world's first satellite built to measure greenhouse gases
QUEBEC CITY, June 26 /CNW Telbec/ - ABB, the leading power and automation
technology group, is proud to announce it has successfully delivered a spatial
interferometer which is the main component on the new Japanese satellite GOSAT
(Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite). The satellite, which will be launched
in 2008 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), will enable Japanese
scientists to study and measure greenhouse gases in support of the Kyoto
protocol made it mandatory for developed nations to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions between 2008 and 2012.
The $10 million contract was awarded to ABB Analytical Business Unit in
Quebec in August 2005 by NEC TOSHIBA Space Systems, the primary mission
instrument supplier to Japan's Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT)
program.
"We are delighted that one of our core applications, greenhouse gas
measurements, will play an essential role in this system. In addition, I am
very proud of the project team which has designed one of the most efficient
interferometers in space history, all within a tight timeframe," says
Marc-André Soucy, Manager of ABB's Remote Sensing Industry.
The 15-person team included mechanical, electrical and software engineers
(data processing), physicians, opticians and technicians. The new instrument
incorporates some of the features of an ABB-built payload currently in
operation on the satellite ACE/SciSat-1 that was developed for the Canadian
Space Agency.
The Michelson interferometer of the Fourier Transform Spectrometer is a
system that will collect and transmit global distribution in carbon dioxide
and methane density - every 3 days cycle - precise atmospheric measurements
from 666 kilometers above the earth. The measurements will be used to chart
and evaluate the atmosphere's carbon dioxide and methane levels. GOSAT's
launch is expected to be the first mission to measure global CO2 levels.
ABB's measuring process takes advantage of the "spectral signature" of
the molecules that carbon dioxide and other gases emit, making them easy to
identify and measure with infrared technology. The ABB spectrometer uses
infrared technology to "read" the signature and establish the density of the
molecules. By taking the readings at different orbital points - latitude,
longitude and altitude - profiles are created to establish the concentration
level of each gas in the atmosphere.
GOSAT is also important because the number of effective ground-based
carbon dioxide observation stations has thus far been limited, mainly because
they are poorly distributed throughout the world. "GOSAT will be the first
observatory that will steadily and globally monitor greenhouse gases at
56,000 observation points every 3 days." says Takashi Hamazaki, Project
Manager, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), in Japan. "Scientists will
be able to combine global observation data sent from space with data already
being gathered on land."

ABB Analytical Business Unit, located in Quebec City, designs,
manufactures and markets high-performance FT Mid-IR/Near-IR analytical system
solutions and spectrometers for Petroleum, Chemical, Life Science, and Remote
Sensing/Aerospace markets. The company also markets analyzers for hydrogen and
inclusion measurement in liquid aluminum. More information is available at
www.abb.com/analytical.
ABB (www.abb.com) is a leader in power and automation technologies that
enable utility and industry customers to improve their performance while
lowering environmental impact. The ABB Group of companies operates in around
100 countries and employs about 109,000 people. In Canada, (www.abb.ca), ABB
employs over 1,800 people in 24 locations from coast to coast.



For further information: Marc-André Soucy, Manager, Remote Sensing
Industry, Analytical Business Unit, ABB Inc., [phone], ext. 343,
[e-mail]; Nancy Rochette, Marketing Communications
Specialist, Analytical Business Unit, ABB Inc., [phone], ext. 356,
[e-mail]; Marie Tremblay,
Axiome, Communication Consultants, [phone], [e-mail]

[lbo] 25/6/2007 10:22

Latvia fears Asia-style bank crisis

18 May 2007

Investors are nervously watching Latvia for signs that unsustainable credit growth across Eastern Europe could set off an Asian-style banking crisis, with global repercussions.

The rating agency Standard & Poor's yesterday stripped the tiny Baltic country of its 'A' standing, citing an "increasing risk of a hard landing" and the failure to slow runaway spending. Latvia's sovereign debt was cut to BBB+, with warnings of further relegation to come. Credit growth reached 78% last year. Riga property prices have doubled since early 2005, driving prices in the old city above levels in Berlin. The current account deficit was 26% of GDP in the Q4, the world's highest. "The government does not seem to have a sense of urgency in tackling the mounting imbalances," said the agency. Instead it is building 'mega-projects' such as a lavish new concert hall. The central bank belatedly raised interest rates to 6% yesterday, a move damned as too little too late for an economy with 8.9% inflation. S&P said Latvia could ultimately face ejection from the European exchange rate system. "This would have a devastating effect on the private sector balance sheet," it said.

Carsten Valgreen, chief economist for Danske Bank, says much of Eastern Europe is looking vulnerable, with back-sliding populist leaders and a dangerously high mortgage debts in euros, Swiss francs, and lately yen. "All the red lights are flashing. The region looks very much like East Asia before the crisis in 1997, and by some measures it' worse," he said. Over 85% of all household and corporate debt in Latvia is contracted in foreign currencies, a proportion similar to Argentine dollar debt before the collapse of the peso peg in 2001.

Hungary, Poland, Croatia, Romania and the other Baltic states have all been snapping up foreign loans, accounting for much of the outstanding $138 billion (£79 billion) of Swiss franc debt outside Switzerland by the end of 2006. Fitch Ratings said credit growth last year reached 68% in Kazakhstan, 64% in Azerbaijan, 55% in Estonia, and 46% in Romania, all far above their sustainable speed-limits. The region needs $217 billion in external financing this year to plug deficits. "Cheap and plentiful capital inflows have fuelled the economic boom Eastern Europe. This begs the question how well the region will cope in the event of a marked increase in risk aversion and tightening liquidity," it said. (telegraph.co.uk)

[hammy davies iii] 08/6/2007 02:46

Although I think he may be taking maternity leave soon.

[hammy davies iii] 08/6/2007 02:45

Teh bald deaf guy at Lemon Investor is your man osteo1