March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[lordcoco] 06/6/2006 15:09

Odd drop.

Link to March website re acq:



A few more customers on there, inc. the big W.

Personally I think this looks like a great little buy. I reckon customers will increasingly be looking for more bang for their buck when making decisions on which system to go for - "complimentary capabilities". I think one of shrinktrax abilities was/is to monitor cleaning of floorspace, check for obstructions etc. March appear to have always looked beyond straight forward surveillance and toward a system that offers many opportunities for businesses to enhance profitability, or simply streamline and manage better.

[lordcoco] 06/6/2006 14:30

CR - conference call is day after.

[lordcoco] 06/6/2006 14:20

About Trax:

"Trax is the market leader in loss prevention, store operations control and profit optimization solutions for the retail industry and lists the following companies among its clients: Albertsons, Winn-Dixie, Ahold, Osco Drug, SUPERVALU, Harris Teeter, CUB Foods, Farm Fresh Markets, Wesco, and dozens of other food, drug, convenience, and retail companies. The company's flagship ShrinkTrax Suite of loss prevention and store operations control solutions has helped more than 22,000 retailers worldwide improve profits by empowering store managers with education and training, world-class technology, and industry best practices."

Recent(ish) win with Boots:



They also appear to be support and partner in Microsoft's Smarter Retailing Initiative, though not sure how relevant this is.

[cockneyrebel] 06/6/2006 14:14

interesting acquisition.

Also says they'll say more about it at the resultys conference calll on June 8. Does that mean the results are not tomorrow now as stated in the results notice or is the conference call the day after the results?

CR

[mitzis] 06/6/2006 14:10

Anyone seen the RNS... out now...

Too late..!

[lordcoco] 06/6/2006 14:06

Acquisition by March:



Looks to strengthen up their retail position. Interesting they specifically mention European market in note.

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2006 18:27

I think if anyone gets the homeland security contract it will be IND. They are actually cheaper than these by my calculation and growing much faster - I hold.

Doesn't mean MNW isn't cheap, they are imo - just IND could be bloody cheap like forward PE 20 and earnings growth of 100%+ for a few years out. Risks with both obviously but may well be lots of reward too.

CR

[mitzis] 02/6/2006 17:47

Listening to the radio last night I heard that Homeland Security are spending $billions on security cameras on the usa/Mexico border and was wondering who would get the contracts .

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2006 15:35

Already said they'll do $16m - $18m Canadian in net earnings.

That's about 1$ Canadian per share. $2 Canadian to the pound roughly so 50p eps?

That means after the results the historic PE will be 26 even after this tick up.

200% growth - if that slowed quite a way these would be ruddy cheap on that basis going forward - PE 15 or less and triple digit growth?

SCSW reckons we'll see broker notes and forecasts after the results.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2006 10:18

Nicely timed buy yesterday tho I say it myself :-)

CR

[mitzis] 01/6/2006 15:46

about time too....!

[cockneyrebel] 01/6/2006 11:39

I meant to buy first thing and forgot! :-)

Got disracted with ISD and one or two others. ISAable too which is nice :-)

CR

[lordcoco] 01/6/2006 11:19

Good luck CR, I reckon that's quite a shrewd purchase.

Shame you didn't buy first thing, for some reason the offer was 500 for 1150 online. Strange, as for the past several weeks/months the offer here has, more or less, corresponded exactly to the mid on the TSX - which it has reverted to now at 1200p vs. CN$24.8.

[cockneyrebel] 01/6/2006 10:59

In for a small few this am. They are going to do $1 to $1.10 eps it seems. Puts them on a PE of 20 or less historic.

I reckon the forward PE is 15 max, might be as low as 10 - not bad for 200% earnings growth!

CR

[lordcoco] 31/5/2006 21:12

Nice little bounce tonight as it looked set to retest the lows again. Huge trade earlier (199k) that printed as a sell and there after the share price went up. The lock-in for the Canadian Gov of 1 mill shares I think expired on 26th April, it could be that it was common knowledge that these would be sold directly into the market and hence the price has been marked down since to reflect that - not sure how trading works on TSX but if it is MM based then the chance of 1 mil cheap shares would easily cover a few hits on the way down and lately there hasn't been much interest from buyers across the board, providing the perfect opportunity for a bit of opportunism.

If the share price purely reflects something short term like this then a strong recovery is on the cards imo, all being well come results of course.

[lordcoco] 25/5/2006 22:52

Good find milesy. Although not a huge contract in itself, I can't see they would go through a fairly comprehensive testing sytem for only 80 odd busses. They look to be in the process of upgrading their whole fleet from diesel to lpg, I'm sure, if positive results come from this inital run, March will be in the new buses. Intrestingly the whole of LA MTA has several thousand buses, 2500 with cameras. I don't know how may operate with a dvr system but would guess not that many, and even less with a system and software of a similar calibre to March's. One county, in one state, in one country - it's a big market!

The thing with March's system (and I suppose the competition's), is that it offers the customer a whole lot more than just simple taped images and therefore one would imagine that the move to universal deployment of dvr type sytems and their respective software is only a matter of when, not if, also to upgrade existing cctv would not afaiaa involve replacing the cameras, just the recorders and software which could prove very attractive if the benefits appear that great. So all in all I think *another* win from a major transit authority after what seems a fairly thorough trial process with competitors equipment looks very good for March.

Not that this has been reflected in the reaction on the TSX though. Over the weeks March seems to have moved into the "weirdy beardy" sector of stocks. Something appears to be not quite right, a succession of analyst upgrades (avg. around $36-40 target), some fairly significant contract wins, a current pe, depending on how you look at it (cash vs. gaap), that is either well below or in line with competion, an optimistic day in the states and still the share price drops. ?? (I wont even start on the continuing mystery large trades that periodically appear over here with no noticable effect on the price.)

Someone on the bullboards thread posted some figures for short positions in the stock, apparently there is a huge number, some 300k+ and taken relatively recently (it might just be all loaned data and the net balance of long/shorts is neutral, I don't know). I seriously doubt this is a whole heap of punting PIs who feel, regardless of the analysts predictions and the beating the share price has taken recently, that there is more downside to come based on their own fundamental analysis. If someone is shorting the stock, who is it and more importantly why? It is possible that someone has wind that March has had a really poor last quarter and that they wont even make their lower forecast for the year, though I'd imagine that those that cover the stock would have picked up on that too and would not have recently been sticking their necks out with targets 50% and above the current share price The issue with the tax has always struck me as a bit odd as it can't have been any great secret or revelation that at some point March would have to pay taxes and even though they will acount for them nxt qrt, they still wont pay for a few yars to come - this imo has also been more than accounted for in the recent drop in share price Rumours regarding WalMart have been pretty much quashed. Secondary offering unlikely given large cash balance. The only thing I can think of is that someone knows that Matthews will want out as soon as the lock-up expires and is set to place at a large discount. This also doesn't seem that likely as Matthews, being a billionaire, is probably unlikely to be pushed into a position where his exit had been manipulated to his disadvantage, and what if finals and outlook come in rosey?

Maybe it's just the consensus view that March's current multiple is too high and now is not the time to be invested in such stocks. Roll on the 7th, put us out of our misery.

Edit - re short history, the figure is 160k not the 300k I posted. There has been some discussion on the other thread regarding market manipulation and suggestions of MMs on TSX being short of the stock, no idea myself but it may explain, what I believe at any rate to be the odd anomaly in the share price movement

[milesy] 25/5/2006 15:57

Having checked the OCTA site there's a very interesting presentation available that's all about the evaluation process and March's selection, including a figure for the MNW contract of just shy of US$500,000. Take a look:

[milesy] 25/5/2006 15:22

"Managed services" = repeat annual revenues = good margin if you don't need to do much to "manage".

[lordcoco] 25/5/2006 10:46

Found a link, possibly not as big as first thought but potentially very big should they (OCT) deploy to the remaining 90% of the fleet. Like you say milesy, a good reference customer.



"...and a unique managed service offering."

I wonder what this encompasses, being "unique"?

[milesy] 25/5/2006 10:39

This side of the business should be one of their stronger cards in respect of their planned UK/EU expansion. Another one to add to the list of good reference customers.