March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[milesy] 17/11/2006 11:22

Must be a plus for Bombadier if they can offer an integrated IP CCTV solution in their contract tenders. No idea if they partner with other CCTV solution providers (since the customer may want options/alternatives), but it bodes well if March is their de facto partner.

[lordcoco] 14/11/2006 22:16

Just seen this, had more or less forgotten about it:

[lordcoco] 10/11/2006 12:57

Arise Milsey.

To be honest I think Orion are being a bit optimistic, with regard to the Ile-de-France deal anyway. If it's the same one I'm thinking of Bombardier aren't due to deliver until 09 through 15, see my post above, never the less being tied in with someone like Bombardier is going to bring the big contracts in, maybe not just yet.

[milesy] 10/11/2006 12:46

A very interesting read.

Thanks Lord (gets up from praying position 8~>)

[lordcoco] 10/11/2006 11:27

A recent update from Orion, inc. some thoughts on Bombardier. It looks if they think results from the Bombardier OEM are much nearer than I thought, and look at their est for March's % of market! Will keep an eye in ObjectVideo too.

MARCH NETWORKS CORPORATION
Sic Transit Gloria
November 2, 2006
Technology – Hardware (Equal Weight)
MN, TSX – C$24.01 12-Month Target: C$30.00
MNW, LSE – 1,138p Rating: Overweight
Potential Return: 25%
All values in C$ unless otherwise noted.
What's Changed (2007E)
Previous New
Sales (MM) $107.2 Unchanged
FD EPS $0.75 Unchanged
Rating Overweight Unchanged
Target $30.00 Unchanged
What Happened?

• In the last six weeks March Networks has entered into OEM relationships with Bombardier and software solutions provider ObjectVideo. March was also awarded the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) contract for providing mobile transit video security. Bombardier has just won a multi-billion dollar order to provide SNCF with commuter rail cars in the Paris region. Further, as part of a US$212 million program, Lockheed Martin (as general contractor)announced a number of video security contract wins (including ObjectVideo) for the New York City transit authority (the MTA).
What Does it Mean?

• Until quite recently, almost all video security deployments in the transit market have been for the fixed portions of the networks: transit stations and platforms. However, the various security threats to transit systems (including, but not limited to, terrorism) have historically been directed at the mobile portions of the systems, NOT platforms and stations.

• We believe that transit authorities deployed video security at fixed areas not because that was where the threat to security was greatest, but because 1) it was relatively easy to do and relatively affordable, and 2) the technology for providing rugged, high quality mobile solutions was not yet ready. We believe that March Networks (both on its own and in partnership with Bombardier) has developed mobile video security solutions that meet the needs of even the most demanding transit authorities.

• Reinforced by the recent win at the TTC (~$15 million,) we believe March may shortly be announcing significant transit wins with the MTA (subway and commuter rail – about $35 million to $45 million in revenue) and with SNCF in Ile-de-France (~$25 million). In partnership with Bombardier, we believe that March is addressing and is poised to dominate a global $1.5 billion revenue opportunity over the next 10 years.

• We believe that the mobile transit security market is much larger than the financial and retail markets that March has built its growth upon in the last few years. Further, we believe that March's technological advantages in the mobile market (ruggedness, fault prediction, compression, form factor) versus its competitors should allow it to have unrivalled success in this market vertical. It appears that March's current share of this market is in excess
of 80%; we believe that level may be defensible.

• If the adoption of mobile video security technology is as rapid as we expect, and if March is able to maintain its current market share, this new business has the potential to more than double March's revenue and earnings within the next 24 months.
What Is it Worth?

• We arrive at our $30.00 target by applying 40x to our fully taxed 2007 diluted EPS estimate.
What to Do? • We reiterate our Overweight recommendation and our $30.00 price target.
Duncan Stewart, CFA [phone]
[e-mail]

[milesy] 03/11/2006 10:40

Lord - indeed, very quiet here these days, but confident that the company is still a good LTBH (having topsliced some time ago).

Agree on the job ops...notice the last one is for Sales Director, APAC region, so international expansion still high on the agenda.

>M

[andylaws8] 26/10/2006 22:27

mitzis - well the force HAS returned for you today (if your still here) $26 exactly @ close on TSX, well done, should be up here early doors.

[andylaws8] 25/10/2006 16:34

mitzis - looks to be sticking @tsx today after a bright start, however had my little trade over last 10dys, but dropped out prematurely doh! still...leave some for the next man ats. May the force etc.

[mitzis] 25/10/2006 14:29

Um that golden cross is getting nearer ever day wont be long now.. lol.

[mitzis] 25/10/2006 08:01

Cheers andy look at the price in Toronto last night..$ 26 nearly.

[andylaws8] 25/10/2006 00:14

mitzis - your forecast of 1200p beow now looking somewhat conservative. Good luck.

[milesy] 24/10/2006 16:39

Continuing to move higher here due to strong move up again today on TSX.

[mitzis] 24/10/2006 12:38

will end at 1200p by end of week according to the chart.
Put on my Gc alert.

[milesy] 24/10/2006 11:43

Nice CDN$1 rise yesterday on TSX translated to 50p up at open here. Looks like we may be on our way up from the bottom...

[mitzis] 15/10/2006 12:04

Ended up at $23 a share in Toronto I make that 1150p approx so another 100p rise on Monday with a bit of luck.. roll on 1600p

[andylaws6] 13/10/2006 17:39

Currently up 7% on TSX. Evolution recc'n 09 Oct buy and target £16.

(Elsewhere the broker has a buy and £17.50 target for GlaxoSmithKline, a buy and £16 for March Networks.)

[milesy] 13/10/2006 12:54

I seem to recall it was the lack of clarity on taxation and MNW's statement that the current FY would be an "investment year" i.e. no profit growth that has been attributed to the selloff.

Nice win in Toronto, particularly if the transit authority expect to extend rollout to the rest of their fleet.

[lordcoco] 13/10/2006 11:19

T Matthews wesley clover selling could be one reason why the price was surpressed Tillman but by no means the only one, plenty of bearish scenarios for investors to dwell upon too. Have a read back through the thread, I posted some analysts comments too, all generally very bullish on March.

Or have a look at the "management discussion and analysis" in the filing docs, I found some of it pretty uncomfortable reading.



That said, I'm still pretty optimistic about the future for March. I took the opportunity to add a few yesterday as the latest win takes them another move away from reliance in the future on their big customer WalMart. If March Fever takes hold again in Canada (lot of the move probably down to the locality of recent win imo) then we could move pretty quickly from here, though without further news before next quarterly results I can't see much of a push from here.

[mitzis] 13/10/2006 10:52

Up today after a good day on the TSX thanks scranmal..
my target is 1600p for year end.

[tillman] 12/10/2006 16:31

I was in these some time ago but then got out and haven't been following much since.

Has the recent fall in the share price been mainly due to the director's selling?
I don't recall seeing any bad news apart from lots of their shares being sold and it does seem to be a good company that is going places.

Comments appreciated.

[lordcoco] 12/10/2006 10:14

Bit more detail on contract win here:

[lordcoco] 26/9/2006 09:51

Latest e-news out from March, little bit about UK team, link for those not subscribed:



Also recent news of Bombardier contract:



"Toronto approves $710-million Bombardier subway contract"

Which follows on from a larger (C$1.2bn) recent contract in Montreal and some speculation about whether March will be built into these new cars:



"Bombardier Inc. is launching a new-generation digital video surveillance and monitoring system...It is being launched in Germany because Berlin-based Bombardier Transportation's biggest transit equipment market is western Europe.
But it could go into the new Toronto Transit Commission subway cars just ordered from Bombardier and in the new Montreal metro cars Bombardier expects to build. A simpler electronic surveillance system is installed in the cars of the Las Vegas monorail built by Bombardier."

So, a Canadian company with two recent large wins in the Canadian passenger transport sector who recently announced a partnership with Canadian based March for a new surveillance and monmitoring sysytem aimed specifically at passenger trains...hmmm.

[lordcoco] 20/9/2006 09:35

Thanks sranmal, somehow it looks like I've turned it into one massive link - one day I'll get to grips with html!