March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[elsworth] 09/5/2006 22:25

Give me a reason not to??????????
Theres DEFINATE uncertainties in the air, if one fails or REFUSES to aknowledge them....then its poor trading!!

IMO, the end of the lock-in period which has tied the top guys down, is looming. They will exercise their rights, question is how deep do they go??

I beleive this will be testing the early 2005 price of between £5.50-£8!! At the moment, i have a target of £7.50/£8.50.....but will adjust accordingly.

[radarlove] 09/5/2006 12:00

Elsworth,

I see you are still shorting the stock. :)

[elsworth] 09/5/2006 11:59

With the lock-in period approaching..........it looks set to retest £8/£8.50!!

[radarlove] 09/5/2006 11:53

From April 10th RNS:

"March Networks will be showcasing its leading edge digital video systems,
including innovative software applications, to customers, prospects, and
partners at the IFSEC 2006 show from May 8 - 11, 2006 in NEC Birmingham UK
(Stand D80)."

Is anyone from this BB going?

[lordcoco] 09/5/2006 11:11

My comment was unnecessary, wrong side of the bed day.

Lowered earnings figures, though continued strong growth. The lower figures are, afaiaa, purely down to the accounting measures in that they begin accounting for taxes in 07, though I believe they do not actually start paying tax until 09 or later, therefore there is no net effect on their cash position but a huge dent in their eps when the tax is accounted for.

I'm not sure why their tax rate is at 36% or if it will continue to be so into 2009 when they actually start paying. Their competitors appear to have a much lower rate, 20-25%. If the company continues to grow it's business, I see no argument as to why they should not, I can't see the problem with them paying taxes come 2009, afterall it's not unusual for a succesful, profitable company to have to pay taxes! And considering the (imo) likelihood that the company continues to grow and only adds what it has the previous quarter ($2m) per quarter, so in effect the growth slows, it still more than makes up for the tax payable come 2009. As said, I still don't fully understand the tax matter and what happens to the cash, maybe it is banked and used to offset the tax in 2009?

As for margins, at last results they were higher which is not an indication that they are under pressure from competition.

WalMart, it is a risk having such a high percentage of revenues coming from one client, I've always thought as much. I think the company have effectively denied the rumours that WalMart have sourced another supplier, though it is perhaps likely that they could squeeze them on margins given their reliance, but given the nature of the equipment it seems unlikely that WalMart would want to complicate matters by running two sets of software and equipment mid deployment when the essence I'd imagine of choosing such is to simplify and streamline their set-up with one comprehensive package, accessable and cross referenceable to all their users. So perhaps they are interdependent to some extent.

If a company the size of WalMart have chosen March over all the competition I also think that speaks volumes about their product, and who's to say similar size contracts may not come their way? That would certainly put an end to the concern over the distribution of revenues.

As for the placing, that was pure speculation on my part. Perhaps TM will place his shares at some point but I suspect it will be much further down the line than this considering it is still early days for the sector and the company and it would appear that he is not exactly short of a few bob. There are hundreds of stocks that have large amounts of shares held by various investors in similar lock-ups, be they directors, institutions, whatever, this does not automatically equate imo as to "uncertainty" as to what they may or may not do with their position. In this case it obviously does as people search for possible reasons for the continued slide, it does not however make it more or less likely that the shares will be placed when the lock-up expires.

Sector analysts have recently upgraded the growth prospects for the sector as a whole, March are clearly a very highly regarded company within the sector mainly due to the very strong positive reponse they receive from their customers, regardless of how they are perceived in the (stock) market which also afaiaa is with very high regard, they appear to be a quality setup. I'd find it hard to make an argument to suggest March weren't extremely well placed to continue taking advantage of this growth.

I look forward to results next month, though what will happen in the interim I guess is anybodys guess, and I wont bark at anyone else for guessing.

[kdwilson] 09/5/2006 09:57

sadly im not short, just waiting to go long.

Nasty susprises? New lowered earnings figures on tax guidance?; comments about Walmart's strategy (given over 30% revenues); impact on margins of competition? a lot possible

discount placing? - doubt any institution will take a large line of stock at a premium to the price. Of course may not be a placing if investors want to hold but then that just extends uncertainty.

Im calling it as i see it so please dont draw jusgement on what i know about the sector/fundamentals.

I appreciate holders are hurting and that isnt fun but surely boards are for discussion not just bullish spivvery ?

[lordcoco] 09/5/2006 08:37

I remember you now kdwilson, similar noises on other stocks you are short on.

I suspect you know little about the sector and perhaps even less about the company.

"Come june there could be a couple of nasty surprises and a discounted placing."

You've managed to draw that conclusion from something I've posted???

edit - kdw, aplogies if that is a bit harsh, what you are saying is indeed *possible* and the strategy probably wise for anyone on the sidelines, too many folk on these boards with their own agendas though.

[kdwilson] 09/5/2006 08:26

I guess this is the problem. Come june there could be a couple of nasty surprises and a discounted placing. As such there are no buyers and more and more sellers which means only one thing for the price. More and more people are realising that this wont rally until June so why sit in a stock in a downtrend hence better to sell and come back in June where there is a high likelihood that you will be able to repurchase at prices better than today. A rather ugly situation brought about by management's silence and a large overhang!

[lordcoco] 08/5/2006 21:50

I have been watching the decimation of March's share price with a mixture of shock and awe!

I've been expecting a bottoming out for some time now and have bought back the shares I sold plus a few more over the last week or so. :( Aplogies to Umaluka - should have kept my trap shut.

The share price now fully takes into account and then some (as far as I can make out) the tax situation which has seemingly spooked a lot of investors, if that equates to knocking off some 36% odd from March's bottom line and suggests a real flattening of growth.

Fearing some other nasty I had a chat with investor relations in Ottowa earlier this evening. They/he/Anil Dilawri seemed pretty frustrated with the hammering that March is getting - there is no material news coming from the company, it appears their hands are tied until results early June before they can dispel any fears (or confirm them as the case may be). He appeared to be eager for that date's arrival though fwiw.

Re the share price movement, Mr Dilwari commented on the fact that it had "had a good run" last year, as far as they could make out no institutional investors were offloading and the sales appeared those of smaller (PIs?) investors driving the price down.

There appears to be no concerns with their major customer (Wal-Mart), they are happy with March and the deployment continues apace.

Stock options/lock-up - TM cannot sell until after results and then, obviously, they would be placed rather than dumped on the market. There was no outright denial that this may happen. My observation - TM had made comment about a merger between March and Mitel maybe this was badly recieved by March and now TM wants out, who knows?

GAAP/tax matters - my theory, once again, is blown out of the water - it is a requirement of March due to Canadian tax regulations to start booking taxes in 07, not a decision by them, no effect on cash balance so not a means to strengthen the balance sheet prior to an acquisition as I had thought. I'll leave it there as I honestly still don't really understand the implications beside knocking EPS forecasts for six.

They are continuing to "focus on sales and growing the business" and from the intonation I suspect they are doing just that. Pleased with the way things are going in the UK, see significant prospects here, expect to ramp up sales later in the year...

Not much to report beyond what's already been reported really.

I think I'll hold off buying any more until results now and then if, as I suspect, there is plenty of scope for March to take advantage of the still growing market I'll probably load up. Pleasant evening all.

[kdwilson] 08/5/2006 17:47

not sure about the Walmart thing but the lock-up ends in june so cant see respite before then

[unclebooks] 06/5/2006 13:16

Thanks kdwilson-would a further purchase be prudent shortly?

[kdwilson] 06/5/2006 13:09

until the overhang is cleared this just will not rally and can drift a lot further. it is cheap but can get a lot cheaper until uncertainty clears

[unclebooks] 05/5/2006 15:28

No postings recently. As a newcomer to MNW, on the recommendation of a friend, can anyone advise the reason for the latest fall away in the share price-I have taken on board previous comments regarding 'stock lock-ups' etc although I cannot claim to understand all this jargon. Any comments would be much appreciated-is Wal-mart still a feature here? Originally liked the look of this one. Thanks.

[mitzis] 21/4/2006 16:10

Well done Radar I myself bought 260 shares around 10 this morning.. good luck.

[sandbank] 21/4/2006 13:52

Well I agree with Greg Reid in the post above. MNW has done very well for me and I bought back in today.

[radarlove] 21/4/2006 10:09

mitzis,

No, I got out far too soon last time, so I hope to make amends when the share does its turn-a-round!I started the gradual process of building a stake yesterday.

At least today, it is taking a breather.

[mitzis] 21/4/2006 09:32

Still holding..!

[radarlove] 20/4/2006 23:18

Elsworth,

I wish you all the best with your continued shorting of this stock. :)

[elsworth] 20/4/2006 17:58

Looking at the charts aswell as certain lock-in periods almost expiring........i think £8 is a fair call!!
You will need another to hand out some mars bars fella........once directors offload a few, it should be well below £7!!!!!

Sell now and buy well below £10.

The Prof

[bangor] 20/4/2006 16:58

"bangore could i ask u what stocks in commodity do you think are worth investing? thanks. I have seen vedanta resources has spiked sharply."

Well commodities have just corrected - it remains to be seen how long this phase will last before the bull returns. I favour a mix: gold (eg AVM/BAU/RRS/MCR/UGY etc) oils (VPC/DNX) PGMs such as AQP/PLAA copper (ACU) zinc (GFM) and mixed miners (BLT). One commodities tracker to take the pain away from individual stocks well worth a look is CED from Close.

[radarlove] 20/4/2006 16:07

jak1,

I would love to know how you reach the figure of 830'ish?

The bottom of the upward trendline is around 11.25. I would be surprised if it drops through this given the company's continued growth. The share became extremely over-bought and the MMs are presently releasing some of the steam.

Given the upcoming expiry of one million shares on April 27th plus the company's presence at the NEC IFSEC show in early May, which may lead to UK contracts and publicity, one feels the drop is nearing its end. If it drops to 830 I will buy you a Mars bar!

Is any investor attending this NEC event?

[jak1] 20/4/2006 15:35

On the chart it looks like support around the 830-ish...

[squintyflinty] 20/4/2006 09:34

Will this one test the £10 platform? Answers on a postcard.