March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[umalukka] 19/4/2006 22:40

bangore could i ask u what stocks in commodity do you think are worth investing? thanks. I have seen vedanta resources has spiked sharply.

[huntie2] 19/4/2006 17:32

sold out as well, yesterday. at some point i'm sure they will rebound sharply, but when?

[bangor] 19/4/2006 11:24

I sold my last tranche today to lock in the reducing profit. The chart looks poor to me but I've no idea which way it is headed. I've used the cash to add yet more to my commodities, which have strong positive momentum right now.

Good look to holders.

[milesy] 19/4/2006 11:06

U,

Took half my holding off the table a few weeks back so now in for free. Will hold these as I'm still positive on medium/long term picture. Short term pullback to be expected after big rise in last 12 months...as long as fundamentals look good sellers will eventually dry up and new buyers will move in.

And you?

>M

[umalukka] 19/4/2006 10:58

is anyone still holding these shares? This looks disastrous day by day. Mitzis Milesy Sivadnoj have you guys come out of this stock or are u stii holding? Please someone tell me what is going on. Thanks

[milesy] 11/4/2006 08:35

Didn't see this one yesterday...VP for UK has been appointed. Hopefully this will afford March greater exposure in our financial press and give PIs better visibility of it's UK/European expansion.

Also good to see March at the NEC next month.

"March Networks Corp. Appointment of UK VP
RNS Number:2474B
March Networks Corporation
10 April 2006

For Immediate Release 10 April 2006

March Networks

March Networks Expands into the UK Market, Appoints Michael Rack to Vice
President of UK Sales

Company Will Showcase Leading-Edge Digital Video Surveillance Solutions at IFSEC
2006 in the UK

March NetworksTM (TSX:MN; AIM:MNW), a leading provider of Internet Protocol
(IP)-based digital video surveillance solutions, announced today that as part of
its international expansion plans it has appointed Michael Rack as Vice
President of UK Sales.

Mr. Rack joins March Networks following a total of eight years at security
provider Senstar-Stellar Ltd. At Senstar-Stellar Michael held various senior
leadership roles in sales, marketing, and business development. Most recently he
was Managing Director for UK and Irish Operations. Going forward, Mr. Rack will
be responsible for establishing a strong direct presence for March Networks in
the UK, including building the UK sales and support team, and developing key
partnerships with technology and solution providers.

March Networks has been successful in focusing on the financial, retail,
transportation, and commercial/industrial markets in North America. These are
all strategic markets for the UK region as well. According to IMS Research the
market for CCTV and video surveillance equipment in the UK is almost US$460
million for 2006.

"The UK is a strategic, exciting, and growing market for digital video
surveillance systems. The opportunities for March Networks within the UK are
extensive and we look forward to replicating our successful North American
go-to-market strategy in the UK," said Peter Strom, President and CEO of March
Networks. "Michael Rack's broad experience and industry knowledge make him the
perfect choice for driving our sales effort in the UK. The entire March Networks
team welcomes Michael and looks forward to working with him."

March Networks will be showcasing its leading edge digital video systems,
including innovative software applications, to customers, prospects, and
partners at the IFSEC 2006 show from May 8 - 11, 2006 in NEC Birmingham UK
(Stand D80).


For Further Information, Please Contact:

March Networks Corporation Tel:[phone]
Anil Dilawri
e-mail: [e-mail]

Buchanan Communications Tel: [phone]
Bobby Morse / Jeremy Garcia / James Strong"

>M

[mitzis] 07/4/2006 15:33

$43 a share looke reasonable to me and come June the share price should recover.

[sivadnoj] 07/4/2006 14:52

Another possible reason for the fall

NP says stock overhang takes the bloom off March
Stockwatch
241 words
7 April 2006
Canada Stockwatch
English
(c) 2006 Canjex Publishing Ltd.
March Networks Corp (TSX:MN)

Shares Issued 16,499,751

Last Close 4/6/2006 $30.39

Friday April 07 2006 - In the News

The National Post reports in its Friday edition that March Networks tumbled about 15 per cent in the last week. The Post's Peter Koven writes that March stock, however, is still a doubler from its initial public offering a year ago. BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Thanos Moschopoulos says the negative action could be due to the upcoming expiry on a lock-up of more than five million March shares. One lockup deal of one million shares ends on April 27. The lockup for another 4.6 million shares controlled by Terry Matthews's holding company Wesley Clover expires in early June. "It is unclear whether, and to what extent, either party will choose to reduce their positions," the analyst said. The stock also dropped last year before a lock-up expired in October. But it recovered quickly afterward. Mr. Moschopoulos predicts that will happen again as long as quarterly earnings remain strong. March is trading at 22 times BMO's estimate for fiscal 2007 earnings. Mr. Moschopoulos said that looks like a bargain as BMO expects the firm to churn out revenue and earnings growth above 30 per cent. BMO's targets March at $43 a share. March closed Thursday at $30.39 in Toronto

[lordcoco] 07/4/2006 07:58

Taken from another board, sums up situation pretty well. RBC note:

-------

MN shares are off approximately $6 over the past 2 weeks, with no real
fundamental news. We review valuation parameters and drivers after the
decline of ~30% from February highs.
Investment Opinion
• Fundamentals Appear Solid Though Valuation Has Been Our
Concern: In recent months we have remained very positive on MN's
market opportunity, product line-up and execution record. Our Sector
Perform rating (please see our note dated February 28, 2006) reflected
valuation concerns as the stock approached $40.
• Industry Peers Down, But Not As Much As MN: MN has traded at a
premium multiple to its peers, largely justified by its higher growth record
and outlook. Even after a steeper share price decline, on a GAAP basis
MN trades at 27.6x C2007E GAAP EPS, compared to the peer avg of 21x.
• Tax Situation Unduly Penalizes MN's GAAP EPS, And Complicates
Comparisons: MN is shielded from paying cash taxes for several years,
but must begin accounting for tax expenses in F2007 at 36%. On a pre-tax
basis MN trades at 17.6x C2007E Cash EPS. Industry peers NICE and
VRNT have 19.5% and 25% tax rates respectively, and average 14x Cash
EPS on a pre-tax basis.
• Revenue Growth Is Driver For Upside To Earnings Expectations: MN
currently runs at near-optimal Gross Margins and OpEx, in our view. With
22% Operating Margins, incremental revenue growth is the key source for
upside earnings revisions. We currently forecast 34% revenue growth into
2007. Each 2% increment would add ~$0.03 to EPS (e.g. 50% revenue
growth should yield C2007E EPS of ~ $1.30, vs. $1.06 current forecast).
• Valuation Getting Interesting, But Remaining Neutral For Now: We
are comfortable accumulating positions in MN at these levels, though are
reluctant to become aggressive buyers immediately. MN fundamentals
and execution remain positive, though we see no immediate catalysts to
reverse the recent trend. Valuation seems reasonable, though a deep value
argument is difficult on GAAP earnings (which many investors screen).
In short, we anticipate somewhat of a sideways drift in the near-term,
and would wait before becoming aggressive buyers at this stage.
• Valuation: Our target remains $40.00, based reflecting 25x C2007E cash
EPS of $1.60. This multiple is in line with our expected growth rate for
MN over the next 3-5 years. Viewed another way, the target reflects
roughly 30x C2007E GAAP EPS, plus cash (including the effect of the tax
shield). We rate MN Sector Perform, AAR with a $40.00 target.
RBC Capital Markets March Networks
April 6, 2006

[mitzis] 06/4/2006 16:44

Whats behind the large T buys at end of trading...

[sranmal] 06/4/2006 09:01

I sold a few weeks ago, mainly due to the tax issue (and how it was being perceived by the market) and the apparent slowing of revenue growth in forecasts. Still on my watchlist though, I expect there will be plenty more contracts announced this year, and am looking for news of setting up their European HQ later this year.

Volume on AIM has always being low, the share price taking its lead from TSX - would have to look at the TSX chart for support levels.

[lordcoco] 06/4/2006 08:49

Don't say that Umalukka, you'll make me nervous now! The above is my opinion, I could be hopelessly wrong - it wouldn't be the first time. ;-)

It could be that there is something nasty lurking and the market has got wind of it, but if that were the case I think we'd know by now. If it is purely a reaction to the tax issue then I think the fall is overdone, then I'm no expert and maybe have failed to grasp the real implications for March, or perhaps how they will be perceived.

I'd like to see Scotiabanks note - $30 target, might give some clues as to how sentiment has changed.

Sandbank - re volume, 247,000 shares were traded on TSX last night!

[sandbank] 06/4/2006 08:43

Well unfortunately this week's drop triggered my automatic trailing stop loss - so now I have to decide when to get back in. Had it been left to me - and not my computer - I'd have allowed the share price to slip a few points lower before doing anything about it - but a stop loss system doesn't allow for such subtleties.

In any case I think the chart doesn't look brilliant for the short-term. There's been an encouraging kick up this morning in the share price but basically this share needs to spend a little more time south of its rising trend line - consolidating - before there's another strong move up.

What's missing at the moment is volume. It'll come though. ...and when it comes - please don't leave without me.

[umalukka] 06/4/2006 08:09

lordcoco, thanks for information.This was very useful to someone like me . I am nervous but i will still hold after reading your article. thanks.

[lordcoco] 06/4/2006 00:51

Whooaa, bit of a nasty fall today. I'm still in, been away from the screens for a while.

Can't see a "problem" reason for the drop, unless their main client (the W one) has found another company, unlikely imo as such news would have been aired as a rumour by now if that was behind recent sales and a switch mid deployment would make little sense. Maybe some fears about competition and margin errosion, though I think the sector still has plenty of room for competition and given the accolades March has, they still seem to be way ahead of the pack in the areas they excel in - banking and retail. Perhaps some thought that the lack of double digit growth last quarter (seasonally weak) was a sign that business was slowing? Perhaps their is a fear that in order to reach the next level March will have to greatly increase their spend, such as opening an office in Europe or elsewhere and that could impact figures in the short term?

As it stands, on cash pe, as far as I can make out, March is currently around 18/19x, which, imo, is pretty good value for a company in this sector with the kind of record and prospects March has. On the GAAP front, (taking into account the tax issue) as far as I understand it, March would be on around 30x with no consideration for cash (Verint on 40x). Also as I understood it, March have chosen to roll up their tax credits into a one-off payment due this quarter, can't remember if this is R&D related or simply down to previous losses, either way they should show a massive cash balance next results and the question remains as to why they have chosen to do this now, especially as they had a healthy cash balance anyway.

Having a look at the Canada boards it looks like there are a few "spooked" folk around and maybe a bear raid to take advantage of that. This has undoubtedly been aided by RBC advising to take profits a while back (yet maintaining a $40 target - post results) and more recently Scotia Bank (ironically on of March's clients) starting coverage with "underperform" and a $30 target.

Personally I'll be looking to add a few more at this level as I think the story for March is a long way from over and as far as i can tell most of the analysts (majority still targeting way above current price) base their estimates on March's own guidance and they have consistently outperformed their own conservative forecasts. They are still in a fast growing sector and managing their growth within it exceptionally well, they are still one of, if not the, best companies in the sector and in my opinion have a team that is hard to match. I'd be very surprised if we didn't finish the year much higher than here, but then again I'm surprised we are down here right now. The joys of AIM, or should that be TSX - by proxy?

[milesy] 05/4/2006 17:22

Tend to agree - the fundamentals story hasn't really changed and it's still probably on a P/E of 20+ at this price so not cheap anyway.

Still happy to hold in such a fast growing market.

>M

[huntie2] 05/4/2006 16:45

holding strong - am confident that these will bounce

[kemche] 05/4/2006 16:37

a 28% decline in the share price because of the tax treatment? Are you sure there is nothing more sinister afoot?

[sivadnoj] 05/4/2006 15:53

Glad somebody is still here - I was beginning to think I was the only one left holding these.

The only thing that has changed, as far as I am aware, is the tax treatment. I certainly don't think that justifies the reaction we've seen since the last results.

regards

[umalukka] 05/4/2006 15:51

milesy r u selling & getting out or holding for long term? this is very worrying.

[milesy] 05/4/2006 15:46

Definitely fallen out of favour since the last results...where's the bottom I wonder?

>M

[saltedcrab] 28/3/2006 10:27

mitrzi
check out this peach - Chariot moves into orbit ahead of launch date...

[mitzis] 27/3/2006 21:00

Strong finish on the TSX tonight..

[lordcoco] 21/3/2006 14:07

Wal-Mart expanding operations in China:



Good news for March?

[onlyonestorm] 21/3/2006 13:27

Umalukka - Hi, I created a thread earlier, just watching at the moment though!

Sounds promising!!

Stormy